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Will Dodge
3.1K posts
Will Dodge
@willtdodge
Draft Team @prospectslive | former: @mlbdraftleague @driftersbball
Katılım Şubat 2022
660 Takip Edilen920 Takipçiler
@ckieboomfanclub @ProspectsLive Heavily lifted by the top 3 picks. Values are formulated by my personal scouting a player grades, which had Chase Brunson as a 1st rounder, and Luke Williams as a high 2nd rounder
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@willtdodge @ProspectsLive Can you explain why the Nationals’ draft was so good?
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Updated final draft value rankings, with a few UDFAs in. Will of course update with any shocking non-slot signings
Will Dodge@willtdodge
How the value board lays out after Day 1. This Cardinals class might be generational
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The Braves have truly outdone themselves
Carlos Collazo@CarlosACollazo
The Braves signed each of their college seniors in rounds 8-10 as well. They used these picks to create $653,300 in savings for their overslot HS players: 8th round Jacob Jarrell, $500 9th round Parker Brosius, $500 10th round Ben Zeigler-Namoa, $500
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I started putting out my profiles online in 2024 and refined it last year. Those 2 years combined for 7 hrs of active usage
This year? 10 DAYS!
I’m again so grateful for the support over this last year. Always open to suggestions and advice and excited for what’s next!
Will Dodge@willtdodge
Congrats on a great year everyone, and thank you for your support. Goodnight and see you next year (hopefully in a couple weeks)!
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@AJ_Lich It’s an XGBoost model, so a little hard to show a rubric. I did present it 14ish months ago and you can see the slides here with outdated data. Model has changed a little since. Made the slides with a different software so the words might be hard to read docs.google.com/presentation/d…
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@willtdodge Ah, then that is more exciting. Do you have the rubric for your calculation available?
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Before I get too excited about how high the Nationals are, I need to see who they can sign, since they took several high schoolers in the latter rounds that I imagine both boost their score and will need big bonuses to get.
Will Dodge@willtdodge
Updated final draft value rankings, with a few UDFAs in. Will of course update with any shocking non-slot signings
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looking at college football way too early, some notes:
-miami is going to be terrific, darian mensah is a terrific QB transfer from duke
-i think cal is going to win the ACC with JKS being a heisman finalist, they've gotten so much talent in the portal (dorian thomas, ian strong, etc.)
-oklahoma state will be very solid with all the transfers from UNT
-RB Ezavier Crowell at alabama is going to break out in a big way
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@HurricaneVision Yes! I’ve been scouting the draft for 5 years so I use my old base of grades (~2000 players) and target to their signing bonus. This is more of a what similar players have gotten in the past thing than directly a what this player should get thing.
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@willtdodge Can I ask how you model out your expected bonus? Historical comp players?
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A draft so nice, I had to share it twice. St. Louis Cardinals knocked this draft out of the park starting out just well in my opinion with smaller HS OFer Trevor Condon, but then did an exceptional job consistently capturing value, led by HS SS Rocco Maniscalco, & modeled college
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Well, that certainly helps in wake of all the guys we might lose to MLB! Adrian will very likely be an instant starter and everyday player at 1B next season #GoDucks
Ducks On Base: An Oregon Baseball Podcast@DucksOnBasePod
Per Adrian Lopez’s IG, he has announced he will be transferring to Oregon! He will be joining his teammate Mikey Ebner who transferred earlier this offseason. Welcome Adrian! #GoDucks #DucksOnBasePod #TransferPortal #oregonbaseball
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Congrats on a great year everyone, and thank you for your support. Goodnight and see you next year (hopefully in a couple weeks)!
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Ending the team recaps with another favorite, the Washington Nationals. Chris Hacopian is maybe this year's best bat, but with injury concerns. Chase Brunson is one of this year's most underrated players, and adding Luke Williams, & his premium twitch, to this group, feels unfair
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Toronto Blue Jays are another team who played well into their PD strengths. Cole Carlon should be built back up to a power arm well after his injury. Will Brick should his strength/in-game power projection. Now how much power can they squeeze out of the Conney/Martin/West crop?
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Texas Rangers gambled big on prep arms, buying the tandem of Gio Rojas & Brody Bumila, along with the power projection on Connor Comeau. Elephant in the room is Bumila's already scheduled TJ, but before he got re-clipped, I was a big fan of the FB upside. They did it big in Texas
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The Tampa Bay Rays sunk the layup at pick 2 with Grady Emerson, and his incredibly wide range of skills. They came back around in Comp-A with Taj Marchand (most obvious pick ever) and his premium projected skillset and power.
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It was a general trend-bucking draft for the Seattle Mariners taking Ace Reese 24th & Jake Brown 65th, each of whom excel at pulling batted balls. Nate Taylor has big physicality and great tunneling, as their prominent pitcher selected.
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The San Francisco Giants have completely overhauled their pitching depth with a splash on Jackson Flora, Carson Bolemon, and Kaden Waechter on Day 1. Eric Nachtsheim, Beau Bryans, JP Robertson, and Carlos Martinez round out that trio as (mostly) mid-major data standouts
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Coleman Borthwick is a high spin and body controlled prep RHP, fitting what the San Diego Padres love. Elliot Lascelles' contact and defensive skills also fit their tendencies, along with high performing, older, and limited defensive ladder college bats like Nu'u Contrades
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Pittsburgh Pirates sent a relative shock 5th with Derek "Guriel" but I like it & how it enabled the total class! Jason DeCaro is everyone's favorite "delivery fix & add 3 mph" guy. Aiden Ruiz is a maybe 80-grade defender? Bryson Moore has an expansive & manipulative repertoire
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