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Willy

@willymon34

Katılım Nisan 2011
1.9K Takip Edilen793 Takipçiler
hule
hule@kkz8gs6cyh·
@Zerosumgame33 I am expecting a dip from earnings due to the shreveport shutdown and then I am going extremely extremely long
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0SG
0SG@Zerosumgame33·
$CLMT $LNG re-rated 8x to 150x EBITDA on take-or- pay contracts. Get ready.
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0SG@Zerosumgame33

$CLMT This absolute stud @VantixResearch wrote up $CLMT on substack today...... Incredible $CLMT + $LNG analog. He writes: "The closest historical analog to what is happening with CLMT is Cheniere Energy in 2017. Cheniere was the first US company to ship liquefied natural gas internationally, but for years the public market priced it like a utility, capping its multiple at levels for refining and energy infrastructure because the analytical category was wrong. The private market eventually cleared at infrastructure multiples once the take-or-pay contracts started flowing through earnings. Cheniere went from approximately $50 in 2017 to over $150 by 2022, peaking near $200 in 2023, roughly 4x in five years. The structural setup was identical to what CLMT has today: regulator-driven demand inflection, capacity-constrained physical supply, non-recourse project financing on the asset itself, take-or-pay contracts validating offtake, and a sponsor-structured monetization clock. The renewable diesel and SAF version of that mispricing is unfolding now, and Calumet is the analog the market has not yet identified." I've been pounding the table on this concept every single day of my life on X: Equities EXPLODE when multi-year take-or-pay contracts show up in earnings power. $CLMT is the next $LNG

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Paulo Macro
Paulo Macro@PauloMacro·
A thread on where the US stands in its ongoing desire to learn Portuguese🧵 My bro @hkuppy has flagged an interesting development that I hadn’t fully appreciated in the context of #bigflip (hattip @INArteCarloDoss) until this weekend. Namely, the US is now a 2-speed economy. 1/
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Willy
Willy@willymon34·
@AbrahamNoubani_ @swingtrader Don’t trade short term options, don’t over-lever on futs, and pick a point where you can admit your thesis was wrong to stop out. Risk management is the game
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Abe
Abe@Abe61_·
@swingtrader see i agree with this but as someone who is relatively new to trading and learning how does one time certain things and manage risk?
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Willy
Willy@willymon34·
@kittysquiddy @grainedge just read through the full sample report on your website. This is really good info.
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Doomberg
Doomberg@DoombergT·
1/ In the second half of the 16th century, Britain plunged into an energy crisis. At the time, the primary source of energy driving the British economy was heat derived from the burning of wood, and Britain was literally running out of trees.
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Karen Braun
Karen Braun@kannbwx·
Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and the U.N. will sign a deal on Friday to resume Ukraine's Black Sea grain exports, according to the Turkish President's office. It is not immediately clear what this means, and additional details are unknown. reuters.com/world/middle-e…
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Willy
Willy@willymon34·
@kittysquiddy Classic seasonal harvest selling pressure on the CBOT (US winter wheat harvest runs early June - late July) compounded by terrible liquidity, broader commodity flush, unlikely port reopening rumors. Global S&Ds still tighter YoY even with bumper Russian crop. Leans bullish
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Willy@willymon34·
@kittysquiddy Then there’s this.. USD strength and WTI weakness is the only thing keeping a lid on US grains imo. New crop vols and cash mkts paint much different picture than futs @BenniKim
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Paulo Macro
Paulo Macro@PauloMacro·
I am normally the first to respect the market and refrain from buying one that is no longer rising on bull news, but in the oil market’s case I will make an exception. Despite the parade of positive catalysts over the past few days (Libya, Caspian, Europe) we got a big smash. 1/7
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Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz@Schuldensuehner·
Good Morning from #Germany, which is falling as an economic powerhouse on a global scale. Germany’s trade surplus is gone. Foreign trade balance came in at MINUS €1bn in May, which is the 1st negative print since 1991 due to its energy problems & weakness in manufacturing.
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Graham Stephan
Graham Stephan@GrahamStephan·
The used car market is on the brink of an auto loan collapse that can shake the entire industry. I am shocked that more people are not talking about this! We are facing a 2008-ish scenario in the used car market and honestly, it's a disaster waiting to happen. A 🧵
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Willy
Willy@willymon34·
@kittysquiddy I actually disagree with this. Feed prices higher but so are live board prices. Standard production metrics such as weights, birthings, etc haven’t deviated from normal levels like you would expect if farmers were under pressure. Speaking from US perspective anyways
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Eric Nuttall
Eric Nuttall@ericnuttall·
Someone help me out! OPEC spare capacity exhaustion in 2 months then 5 years for Saudi to add 1MM Bbl/d, US shale capped at 0.6-0.8MM Bbl/d per year, and supermajors flat. With annual demand growth of 1+MM Bbl/d...where exactly are the barrels supposed to come from???
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Javier Blas
Javier Blas@JavierBlas·
OIL MARKET: According to preliminary DoE data, the US released 6.9 million barrels of crude from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve last week (~985,000 b/d). The latest weekly release has pushed the SPR below the 500 million barrels mark for the first time since 1986 | #OOTT
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