Steve Jurvetson@FutureJurvetson
𝐅⃣𝐎⃣𝐂⃣𝐔⃣𝐒⃣ The ASML Way
I just finished this history of the most important semiconductor equipment company in the world, as translated from the Dutch original (and lurking in the background might be a better way).
Reminder: ASML builds 100% of the world’s extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines, without which cutting edge chips are simply impossible to make. It’s the most expensive mass-produced machine tool in history. Oh, and today, there are two special women without whom, all EUV lithography would sputter to a stop (see p.141 below)
ASML was formed in 1984 as a JV with Philips, the Dutch electronics company that contributed ~$15M (in guilders) and 40 engineers, and “it seemed doomed from the start.” (p.35) There were 10 viable competitors at the time, more than enough to serve the market as ASML learned at SEMICON in 1984 (by coincidence, I was also there with my Dad who about to leave Mostek to run Varian’s Semiconductor Equipment Group, but they only had Molecular Beam Epitaxy, a low throughput lithography alternative. My Dad’s attempt to poach a CTO from ASML is on p.72).
“In these initial years, management worked around the clock to bring in new subsidies. In these initial years, about half of ASML’s money for research came from The Hague or Brussels.” (48)
ASML’s “machines were the first in the industry to utilize modular design. The lens, the wafer-table, the frame for the mask, the light source, the robot that picks the wafers: these are LEGO blocks that, when you bring them together, form a lithography system.” (62)
IPO in 1995. Stock went up 600x in the 30 years that followed. March 2000 market crash: “cancellations from chip manufacturers poured in daily. On paper, the company was bankrupt. Radical cost-cutting measures would be needed.” (82)
Nikon sues: “a rude awakening. ASML had paid far too little attention to its intellectual property in its early years.” (98) “The best inventors, some of which have more than 200 patents to their name, are commemorated by having their faces engraved on silicon wafers and hung on a series of large wooden beams, like a Mount Rushmore of the chip industry. As of 2023, ASML has registered more than 16,000 patents.” (99)
The machines are insanely sensitive. “Atmospheric pressure fluctuations due to thunderstorms can easily disrupt the lithography process. Or cows. Intel once faced an inexplicable drop in yield every night for a few hours, with researchers running in circles until they finally realized the cause: cow farts. Intel had to pay for three farms to relocate.” (117)
“In 2006 Intel, who was supplying the chips for Apple’s computers, was asked if it could also supply the processor for the iPhone. It declined.” (122)
“EUV light is extremely difficult to generate and sustain in an industrial environment. The invisible rays are absorbed by almost all materials, even the air, which means the lithography machine needs to have (curved, atomically precise) mirrors instead of lenses and can only operate in a vacuum.” (127)
The Cymer laser / light source has a molten tin “droplet generator capable of forming a 30-micron droplet of tin at a rate of 50,000 times per second. The laser was rigged to deal two separate blows. First, a gentle tap to flatten the droplet into a pancake-like shape, followed by an intense blast that heated the tin to 200,000 degrees, transforming it into a plasma.” (130)
“During its journey through the lithography machine, the light beam comes across 10 mirrors, each absorbing 30% of the light. It starts with 1.5 megawatts from the grid that yields 30 kilowatts in the laser, and that creates 100 watts of EUV light. Of this, about 1 watt ends up on the wafer. But more power also creates more heat. That causes the mirrors to expand, which in turn causes small deviations that immediately need to be corrected with small motors. Even the EUV mask, which carries the blueprint of the chip on it, is itself an extremely sensitive mirror.” (132)
“ASML was vastly underestimating the financial consequences of the new technology. In retrospect, this was for the best. No respectable CEO would sign for a project that would take 20 years, without any promise of success or interim profit to carry it through. That’s not taking a bet, that’s bananas. This is also why the Japanese competition dropped out of the race: not because their engineers were any less capable, but because Nikon and Canon were simply not prepared to continue pumping so much money into EUV.” (133)
To finance the purchase of Cymer in 2012, “Intel invested 3.3B Euros into ASML in exchange for 15% of the shares. TSMC was required to purchase 5%... and Samsung acquired a stake at the 11th hour, taking 3%.” (139)
“Only Joann and one of her colleagues have the ability to wind and solder invisibly small wires (around the nozzle that shoots the tin droplets). It’s a delicate task few could ever master. ‘Even watchmakers can’t do this,’ says their awestruck boss, ‘and there’s no way to automate it.’ It’s not a trivial matter: the nozzle regularly gets clogged during day-to-day use in the chip factory. When that inevitably happens, the only thing to do is to swap it out for a new one. It’s hard to imagine, but without the fingers of Joann and her colleague, the EUV machines at Samsung and TSMC would grind to a halt.” (141)
In 2013, “most of the droplet generator was still hand-made by Cymer, and it was virtually impossible to test the part in advance. This made for completely unpredictable yields: in the initial phase of production, half of the droplet generators didn’t even work.” (142)
“20% of the South Korean economy now relies on the revenue of one single company. Hence their nickname: this is the republic of Samsung.” (156)
“Intel was being surpassed by their competitors in Asia on every front and would only start using EUV for chips after 2023.” (160)
“The descriptions that chip manufacturers use for these technological generations or ‘nodes’ need to be taken with a grain of salt. The physical dimensions of the smallest circuits and connections on the chip are, in practice, 5 to 10 times larger than advertised. A nanometer was once a nanometer, but accuracy has never stopped a good marketing slogan.” (161)
Cousins “Lisa Su and Jensen Huang, the leaders of AMD and NVIDIA were both born in Tainan, the city where TSMC now produces their chips.” (164)
“The culture at TSMC is more hierarchical than ASML, but less militaristic than in South Korea.” (166)
“TSMC now commands 60% of the entire foundry market, making it 4x larger than its closest competitor, Samsung.” (167)
“ASML’s next generation of EUV machines goes by the nickname High NA (the numerical aperture increases from 0.35 to 0.55). These colossal scanners span 14 meters and feature large mirrors up to a meter wide. The optical system by itself consists of 20,000 parts and weighs 12 tons, making it 7x heavier than the optics for the current EUV machine.” (175)
“The High NA system weighs 150 tons and costs 400M Euros. It takes 7 cargo planes to ship this system to customers.” (225)
“The production of a complex EUV mask costs more than a half million Euros and takes a huge amount of time to calculate.” (181) They “use AI to understand the interplay between the light beam, the mask, and the chemical reactions on the wafer.” ASML’s CTO calls it “voodoo software.” (183)
China: “European governments fear China is transforming into a totalitarian state, capable of forcing Chinese multinationals to spy for the Communist Party. And that poses significant risk to the 5G cellular infrastructure of the West.” (200)
“In 2017, Chinese customers ordered 700M Euros worth of lithography machines, a new record. Hundreds of ASML’s scanners were running in the factories of SMIC, China’s largest foundry” (201)
“EUV is controlled by the Wassenaar Arrangement, the multilateral export control regime on conventional arms and dual-use goods and technologies.” (203)
“As far as ASML is concerned, fears about EUV being used for military applications are baloney. Most chips found in weapons are ‘off-the-shelf’ chips that can also be found in laptops, washing machines or cars, and are easy to purchase anywhere in the world. But the U.S. sees things differently. They fear the emergence of Chinese AI and cyber weapons. And there is one thing those all need: advanced chips.” (205)
“In January 2020, the U.S. asked the Netherlands to block EUV exports, and suddenly ASML found itself in the spotlight. The Netherlands ultimately denied ASML a license… No EUV machine was going to SMIC.” (208)
In 2023 “ASML was exporting far more older DUV machines to China than had been expected. Almost half of ASML’s revenue was coming from China. As the chip industry was pushing the pause button, China kept on hoarding. The U.S. pressed the Netherlands to slam the brakes before January 2024, and the cabinet duly revoked several approved export licenses for ASML machines destined for China.” (234)
“As China is growing increasingly isolated, so too is the liklihood of a fully-fledged Chinese competitor emerging in the rearview mirror capable of developing an independent chip production chain.” (236) “ASML takes this seriously. Their go-to response: ‘The laws of nature are the same anywhere.’ What was achieved in Brabant, could be achieved in Beijing.” (335)
“To qualify for government aid (in Biden’s Chips Act), companies had to agree not to build advanced chip foundries in China or other ‘countries of concern.’” (239)
“The chip shortage had been a wakeup call, and the nightmare scenario was front and center on everyone’s mind: if China blocks Taiwan, we’ll be without chips within two weeks.” (242)
“The estimated percentage of people with autism or ADHD at ASML far outnumbers the average. The highly specialized work, revolving around focusing on complex problems that require prolonged attention to the smallest details, makes it well-suited for some autistic traits. ASML’s CTO and President Van den Brink makes no secret about being dyslexic and actively advocates for targeting this neurodiverse group. They are precisely the analytical and creative thinkers ASML needs, but also often the ones who find it difficult to put themselves in other people’s shoes.” (287)
Sounds like teen spirit… of Steve Jobs: “Van den Brink’s power of persuasion lies in his childlike enthusiasm. It works like some kind of reality distortion field. Martin can disrupt your perspective until you’re convinced that you can make the impossible possible.” (321)
“Van den Brink never really led a big company. He guided it like a startup, as if it were a defiant toddler in the body of a mature multinational.” (329)
The book ends with the poignant handover of the company in 2024 to a new leader, the Frenchman Chistophe Fouquet.
