Rudi

$TAO is the perfect memecoin. No one knows what the fuck a Bittensor is or how it works, liquidity is ass so small inflows jack the price, and even though there's no obvious use case for years to come, a bunch of reliably early visionaries are shilling it hard. Upwards 🚀🚀🚀

It’s not just de-dollarization that’s happening today, but de-bitcoinization. Both have lost the narrative war on the “store of value” battlefield. USD is a necessity, so de-dollarization is slow, like a melting iceberg. With BTC, though, there’s no there there.

For the Greenland event: First, Tuesday’s decline in US equities is not strongly related to Greenland. Although US equity indices fell on Tuesday, the leaders were AI-related names: turbine generators and memory stocks; the laggards were software and computers impacted by AI. In principle, this was simply a fundamentals-driven sector rotation within tech, a micro-level logic, with no obvious macro-driven panic selling. Tuesday’s global asset declines were more driven by the sell-off in global bonds. The declines in European and US bonds were related to the Greenland event, but the drop in Japanese bonds was an independent factor, Japan’s prime minister proposed canceling the food consumption tax, leading to a sell-off in JGBs as pension funds and other institutions reduced holdings. This was purely an accidental coincidence. Today, Japanese financial institutions announced market-stabilizing purchases, and Bessent met with Japan’s finance minister to calm the JGB market; JGBs subsequently rebounded. The main driver of volatility in US and European bonds was Deutsche Bank’s Saravelos bearish report on the dollar and US Treasuries, “more dollar weakness ahead.” EU countries “own $8 trillion of US bonds and equities, almost twice as much as the rest of the world combined. Developments over the last few days have potential to further encourage dollar rebalancing.” In response to the market volatility caused by this report, Treasury Secretary Bessent said: “The CEO of Deutsche Bank called to say that Deutsche Bank does not stand by that analyst report.” He is clearly concerned about a sharp sell-off in US Treasuries potentially triggering a crisis of dollar credibility, US inflation, and US fiscal stability, especially as Danish and Swedish sovereign funds have already announced reductions in US Treasury holdings. Perhaps to reassure the market, Trump stated that he would not use military force to seize Greenland, US equities rebounded. Therefore, in summary, if ETH’s short-term decline is attributed to the Greenland event, there is no solid basis for it: 1/ The US equity decline was mainly due to internal sector rotation within tech 2/ Trump has already begun to reassure the equity market 3/ Bessent, together with Japan’s finance minister, has moved to stabilize the JGB and US Treasury markets

Since some of you found this framework helpful, here’s an updated version All frameworks are by definition reductive but this gives me clarity on navigating time frames and is part of the reason I limited significant drawdowns to 2 (2017 end and May 2021) in the past 7 years in a +100% vol asset class Thoughtful critiques welcome