Wrecked Retail

Rolled my $MSTR calls today. Bought back the July 255s and sold the August 255s for a net credit of about ~$2k. Same strike, just moving it out another month. This brings my options credit for the month to $3,622 so far. Plan is to hold this into the 3rd or 4th week of July, maybe even the first week of August before rolling again.

@notthatsmartlol Lmao 😂

@wreckedretail I would love to see Marks’ facial expression reading your post 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

$MSTR checks almost every box on Howard Marks' bargain checklist: ✅ "Widely disliked or ignored" ✅ "Trading at low valuations" ✅ "Recent poor performance" ✅ "Something's wrong with the company or industry" ✅ "It's controversial, forbidden, or scary" ✅ "It's deemed inappropriate for 'respectable' portfolios" The best stuff is usually where nobody wants to look.

@amit32883 😂

@wreckedretail Nobody knows what the lindy effect is. No matter what it is, you're wrong.

Saylor has been CEO of $MSTR for 35 years. Made it through the dot-com crash, financial crisis, and a brutal Bitcoin bear market in '22. The Lindy effect says he could be around for decades more. When the CEO sticks around that long, the company usually does too.

@BTCBreadMan Legend 👑

Bought more MSTR leaps lol

"The stock market serves as a relocation center at which money is moved from the active to the patient." - Warren Buffett You're not early or late on $MSTR. You're just on one side of that trade or the other.

"$MSTR trades below its Bitcoin." Cool. Do the math. Buy the whole company: $37.3B. Sell BTC to clear the debt and preferreds: ~$22B. What's left: ~$31B in raw Bitcoin. You just paid $37B for $31B of net BTC. That's a 20% premium. Gross mNAV says "discount." The equity's claim says "premium." The leverage sits right in front of you, but most can't see it. Issuing stock here to buy Bitcoin isn't dilutive. It's accretive. That's the entire machine. The panicans can't read a balance sheet. When Bitcoin doubles, none of this noise matters. You either understand the thesis or you don't. Everything else is just execution.

no disrespect - this is a going-concern vs bankruptcy mixup. as a going concern, equity DOES own proportional claim on assets. that's what a share is. and when $MSTR issues stock at a premium to NAV, then buys bitcoin, retires debt, or adds cash, it's accretive. ETFs have no accretion lever. thats perfectly fine. nothing wrong with $IBIT, i own it too. if you just want BTC then IBIT is solid. if you want ~2x BTC over time, and trust management, $MSTR is a no brainer.

@wreckedretail You don’t own any bitcoin. You own a subordinate claim to the dollars left after the sale and payment of senior claims. MSTR issuing more shares and buying Bitcoin isn’t increasing your claims on the Bitcoin more than if you just sold your shares and bought an ETF.

Everyone keeps saying $MSTR trades at a discount to its Bitcoin at 0.76x. But common shareholders don't own gross Bitcoin, they get what's left after $22B of senior claims are paid out first. Run the real numbers and that "discount" turns into a 1.2x premium pretty fast.

@NickKaknes close. first level thinking makes this sound smart second level: never sell an asset growing BTC >10%/year stack doubles in 7 years without your adding capital

@wreckedretail In other words: “if you own $MSTR at the current price you should sell it, as you will get more than your claims on the bitcoin are worth”

@JonnyD0nuts 😂

Depends how an investor wants to value it. $MSTR has traded north of 3x mNAV at prior tops (even hit ~3.9x), so current levels are low by that standard. Enterprise mNAV is sitting around 1.1x right now (per the company’s own dashboard) based purely on current BTC holdings. That’s a really low multiple for what this thing is. In my view, a company that can keep growing BTC per share in the high single to low double digits (they’ve been doing 9–23% recently), effectively doubling your Bitcoin exposure every ~7 years through the capital structure, is worth more than ~1.1x mNAV. 3x was probably peak euphoria territory. Near or below 1x is a steal while it holds. ~2x feels like a more reasonable middle ground to me.

@wreckedretail How is it trading at a low valuation? Is it truly trading at a discounted to MNAV?

@RichLassiterMD 💯

MSTR at -23% is not to be ignored. But ASST at -6% should not be overlooked, either.

@RichLassiterMD @BTCBreadMan 🫡🫡

@BTCBreadMan @wreckedretail Same

This is incorrect for a few reasons: 1. Priority of claims is fundamental, not just a bankruptcy thing. Debt and preferred stock have contractual seniority at all times - in normal operations, distributions, or liquidation. Bankruptcy just makes enforcement stricter when the company can’t pay its obligations. 2. Common shareholders have a residual claim by definition. They get what’s left after seniors. They do not “gain access to everything.” 3. Valuation already reflects this. The stock price isn’t pricing gross BTC ownership, it’s pricing the leveraged residual claim after ~$22B in senior capital. That’s why the “naive” gross multiple looks like a discount but the proper net multiple shows a premium. MSTR has deliberately used debt and preferred stock to buy more Bitcoin (creating leverage for common shareholders). That leverage amplifies both upside and the importance of looking past the gross BTC number.

@wreckedretail False. This only applies in a bankruptcy. Common equity shareholders gain access to everything in reality.

?? “Cost of capital” is the literal, standard finance term for what you’re describing: the minimum blended return that a company must generate on its investments to satisfy all providers of capital. Debt holders (who expect repayment + interest), preferred shareholders (who expect their dividends/returns), and especially common equity holders (who expect a competitive risk-adjusted return on their capital, given the opportunity cost and volatility).

To all the "BTC ARR just needs to outrun the cost of capital" people: The flaw in this framing is treating equity as if it's free. Debt holders expect to be repaid. Preferred holders expect to be repaid. Common shareholders expect a return on their capital. Every layer of the capital stack has a cost. Bitcoin doesn't just have to outrun the debt and preferreds. It has to generate enough value to satisfy the expectations of everyone who funded the company. And last time I checked, MSTR common shareholders aren't expecting 6% or 10%. They're expecting something much, much higher. Maybe add that into your analysis for once. $MSTR $STRC

@HodlFlorida This is a perfectly reasonable approach. Really like it.

For full transparency I’m: ~90% Bitcoin $BTC ~6% Strategy $MSTR ~4% Strive $ASST I decided to buy some treasury companies for pure fiat gain. They have a lot of Bitcoin and I think they will perform well. But I struggle with selling Bitcoin. I have no problem selling a stock for fiat gains. Thank you 🫡 NFA.

@BTCBreadMan Yeah don’t wait. Buy with available funds consistently. DCA > “timing the market”

The problem with waiting to buy Bitcoin until it hits $40k is that even if it does... by then you'll inevitably want to wait until it hits $30k.

@dampedspring Holding less than 1 day doesn’t count lmao

I've actually bought $MSTR before. But next time it will be at 42069 on BTC and enterprise value based MNAV of .85 which is roughly $35. For the stock.

I think maybe 80% of bad market takes stem from the fact that most people do not actually understand what risk they are taking on and just attack the asset instead of the thesis.