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We have just hit 5 circuit breakers:
Taiwan
Japan
Russell Futures
Australia
Singapore
ₕₐₘₚₜₒₙ@hamptonism
For those of you who don’t know how halting the market works: S&P 500 circuit breakers are market-wide trading halts triggered at three level, a 7% drop pauses trading for 15 minutes, a 13% drop halts for another 15 minutes, and a 20% drop stops trading for the day.
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@ItsAdvena I like Bianco Latte and Angel’s Share for sweet fragrance
But i think Hibiscus Mahajad is crazy quality
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just zero life experience discussing grub with the boys. absolutely rules
big content guy@bigcontentguy
i’m obsessed with the podcast where those dudes in like 8th grade discuss food
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Protecting Yourself from Bullshit.
This is something I’ve been thinking about after some recent readings on critical thinking and deception. With everything happening lately in our space and the rest of the world - crime, backstabbing, and a market full of misinformation - having a framework to filter out bs is more important than ever.
The key lies in asking the right questions, spotting red flags, and recognizing logical fallacies before they lead you astray.
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Part 1: Asking the Right Questions
Whenever you encounter a claim, whether from an external source or from your own mind its important to interrogate it:
1. Who’s Making the Claim, and What’s Their Angle?
- What’s their track record? Have they been right before? More importantly, how do they handle being wrong?
- Do they have skin in the game, or are they just talking?
- Are they selling something - an idea, a product, a narrative? Would they still hold this view if they weren’t benefiting?
2. How Solid Is the Foundation?
- What assumptions does this claim rely on? Do they hold up under scrutiny?
- Is the argument built on correlation rather than causation?
- Is there real evidence, or just selective data and cherry-picked examples?
- Are anecdotes being used as proof rather than illustration?
3. How Am I Being Persuaded?
- Is the claim designed to inform—or to manipulate?
- Does it appeal to emotion rather than reason?
- Is it just a familiar idea being repackaged to sound new?
- Am I agreeing because it "feels right" rather than because it makes sense?
4. What Are the Alternatives?
- Could there be a simpler, more likely explanation?
- What would someone with an opposing viewpoint say?
- If I dig deeper, does the argument hold - or does it crumble?
5. Am I Thinking Clearly?
- What are my own biases, and how might they be influencing my judgment?
- Am I looking for confirmation rather than truth?
- Am I in the right state of mind to assess this, or are external factors skewing my judgment?
- Am I being lazy and defaulting to the easiest answer? The brain favors shortcuts to save energy, but lazy thinking leads to blind spots.
- What would it take to change my mind?
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Going to go through some common logical fallacies to be vary off in the next part.
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Many struggle to stay on the sidelines during weak markets for two key reasons:
1) When trading is their full-time focus, they feel the need to stay active—whether out of boredom or obligation.
2) They see others making gains and feel like they’re falling behind, even if it’s just perception.
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Redefine productivity - research, refine, or step away instead of forcing trades. Detach from the illusion of competition - sitting out isn’t losing, it’s avoiding unnecessary risk. And develop patience as a skill - restraint is just as important as execution.
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Two things that never change in human nature: the urge to gamble/speculate and the desire for easy money.
- Ancient Markets (3000 BC - 1700s) – Early speculation on grain, spices, land, and futures contracts
- Tulip Mania (1630s) – Dutch tulip bulbs hit insane valuations before crashing.
- South Sea & Mississippi Bubbles (1700s) – Speculation on companies with exaggerated promises.
- 1929 Stock Market Crash – Margin-fueled boom collapses, leading to the Great Depression.
- Dot-Com Bubble (1990s-2000s) – Tech stocks surge on hype, then collapse.
- 2008 Housing Crisis – Real estate speculation and leverage trigger a financial meltdown.
- Crypto & Meme Stocks (2017-Present) Bitcoin booms, ICOs, GameStop, NFTs, memecoins - speculation in new forms.
The assets change - tulips, stocks, real estate, crypto - but the behavior stays the same. Greed drives manias, FOMO fuels bubbles, and when reality catches up, the cycle resets. Some win, many lose, but speculation never dies - it just finds a new playground.
Crypto takes it to another level. It’s not just one playground - it’s an entire casino with endless tables: alts, memecoins, perps, NFTs, airdrop farming, on-chain ponzis, betting apps.
Each cycle brings a verity of new games, new narratives, and new ways for people to chase the dream. The "technology" evolves, but the psychology remains the same.
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