Brian Sumner 🔶 BNB

My short-term bullish thesis that i have reported last time is in the process of playing out, and with Bitcoin at $74k, it can run further to $75k-$78k, but the risk/reward for chasing further upside from here is not favourable in my view. i expect price to locally top in the mid-to-high $70ks, and for price to turn lower back into the $60ks. It remains my view that the macro outlook isn't constructive over the medium or long-term, be that, a lack of liquidity, lack of rate cuts, risks to growth, and rising inflation, therefore i remain of the view that Bitcoin will pull back into the low $60ks and likely the $50ks. Should we be right in this view, $50k-$63k is where my framework identifies the strongest long-term risk/reward, based on on-chain cost basis models and historical cycle data. In the meantime, i'm exercising patience as the data suggests to me that we'll see lower prices in the months ahead. Mar 17–18: FOMC meeting "NFA"

BTC TA: - In the previous analysis, i expected Bitcoin to test $65,650 and break lower, and that breakdown did occur, however, the breakdown lacked follow-through. Bitcoin found strong demand at $62,800, wicked the entire move, and closed back above $65,650. That reclaim is important. - The $65,650 level now becomes the primary pivot. The fact that price broke below it and immediately reclaimed it shows that supply below that region was absorbed. Despite escalating geopolitical tensions, the level has continued to hold on daily closes. This is why i'm shifting from a neutral-bearish stance to a more neutral bias for now. - $62,800 remains the structural daily swing low closing from early February. If price revisits that zone, it becomes the decisive point: either continuation toward $59,800-$57,300, or a potential bullish RSI divergence if momentum holds while price prints a marginal lower low. - On the upside, resistance remains at $70,500, followed by $73,800. If $65,650 continues to hold and i see another failed breakdown attempt followed by reclaim, liquidity above $70.5K becomes the next objective before any broader structural decision. - The 200 EMA continues to slope lower near $90,000, keeping higher-timeframe pressure intact. RSI has recovered to 42 with average around 38, showing stabilisation but not strength. Structure is balanced, neutral bias with clearly defined triggers. - Support: $65,650 - Resistance: $70,500 - Direction: Neutral (pivot at $65,650) - Upside Target: $73,800 - Downside Target: $59,800 & $57,300 My take: The reclaim of $65,650 changes short-term tone. i'm no longer leaning actively bearish unless that level fails again on a daily close. However, higher-timeframe structure has not flipped bullish either. $62,800 is the real inflection. A break and deviation below that puts in a potential bullish divergence on BTC whereas a clean break below that opens acceleration toward the mid-high $50Ks. Conversely, continued defence above $65,650 increases probability of liquidity sweeps toward $70.5-$73.8K before any deeper structural decision. For now, neutrality with clear triggers remains the stance.