X Moran

@DKThomp Dude. Looking at revenue growth over such a short time horizon (and annualising) is quite simply not a sensible way of determining whether valuations are sustainable and bubble territory, it is profoundly unserious

Again, if you thought that the odds that AI was a bubble in 2025 were >50% (hi) I don’t know you can look at this and not shift your odds. The best time to flip-flop is when reality changes. A leading AI company’s run rate quadrupling in six months is some kind of change!

@McFaul Unfortunately not - at least for Western Europe. National Rally in France; AfD in Germany and Reform in the UK - all likely to be in power by 2030. Unfortunately the illiberal experiment needs to be run first before “illiberal democracy” is rejected by voters

Illiberal nationalism is taking a big hit in Hungary today. A suggestion of things to come in other countries, including my own?

@DKThomp There are far too many confounding factors for this to be useful as evidence of AI's economic impact. Adoption is still too limited for it to show in this data. Overhiring during 21/22 is a more plausible cause, also why would infra hiring stall due to AI? Surely the opposite no?

I still don't think we have crystal-clear, I-will-hear-no-objections evidence of AI's effect on the macroeconomy. And yet. If you asked me "what would change your mind here?" I'd probably say, "emerging evidence of a productivity boom combined with a major slowdown in tech sector hiring and employment." This week, we got both.

@elicalebon Whilst your elation at this news is understandable, claiming that Trump foreign policy is making the West and US safe is myopic. It is this same admin that repeat Kremlin talking points vis-a-vis Ukraine and threatened the Danes with force if they failed to handover Greenland.

President Trump’s speech recites almost word for word my exact statement on Piers Morgan, proving what most of us always knew. This was always common sense to the American public, from left, to center, to right. It was only the fringe alliance of extremists on both ends that tried to convince you that—in the greatest moral inversion in history—being “pro-America” meant protecting America’s enemies. The lie is dead. Iran’s freedom is near. liberal democracy will detonate throughout the Middle East. America and the west are safe again.

@shashj Produced roughly the same thing with ChatGPT but didn't refer it to any specific datasets and it has come up with pretty much the same thing

@DKThomp Growth stocks have never been used as leading indicators for trailing period labor statistics or the the broader economy. The impact of AI being priced is ultra-forward looking. Even if directionally correct 15 years out, it will be imperceptible in transient labor force data

Good test for the utility of equity prices as the ultimate leading indicator

It's interesting, if not entirely surprising, that you can see the effect of AI in markets from a thousand light-years away while smart economists have to build ever-more-advanced microscopes to identify the marginal effects it *might* be having on the labor force right now.

@YugoslavVisuals Darko in the sheepskin with the sheep dog. Great cover and even better album as well

The weird and wonderful world of Yugoslavian album covers

@tejparikh90 @FT Great article and a convincing conclusion if one accepts the implicit assumption that LLMs remain the dominant AI modality. I’m skeptical of that premise: frontier innovation is more determinative of who ultimately 'wins' and it's not clear China leads the US on this axis

Check out the latest edition of my @FT newsletter. (1/2) Tech dominance is about innovation, and diffusion. That's why China may have the edge in the AI race: as.ft.com/r/869f07ba-83c…

@DanielDiMartino You cannot seriously make this statement with the overtures Trump is constantly making in Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin's direction

Yet the media is hellbent in saying Trump doesn't want democracy. It's all part of the leftwing agenda to frame Trump himself as a dictator by saying he is cozy with dictators. In reality he is the greatest enemy of foreign authoritarian regimes.

@iamGermania But surely just the rhetoric can be damaging even without material actions. It can damage institutional credibility take for example the rhetoric against the Fed - unlikely to result in material action but bad for long-term Fed policy credibility and financial system stability

that is a good point- Chavez was able to act and fast. I heard something brilliant this week- Americans might have made the same mistake as Venezuelans in voting for a populist authoritarian, but the consequences for Venezuela were lethal, unlike in the US, because our institutions were not as strong to begin with

@afalkhatib Agreed. It also has serious ramifications for both Taiwan and Ukraine

President Trump announced that the US has captured Venezuela's Nicholas Maduro following a series of airstrikes and that the Venezuelan President is in US custody outside of the country. This dramatic start to 2026 has implications for multiple regimes & terror groups worldwide

@RIKKISCHLOTT Who is this dude, like an inarticulate British Gen Z Rudi Dutschke

Why is this kid the head of a debate club? Why not start an Oxford militia?

@elicalebon Identity of shooter has yet to be confirmed, since he/she is still at large. To use this as a vehicle to make a point about left wing terrorism seems like pretty poor form, when the guy was shot literally hours ago

I feel sick to my stomach learning the news that a father and husband has been shot and killed. I said it after October 7th, and nobody listened. Instead, the world celebrated Hamas as “freedom fighters.” I said it after Brian Thompson, and nobody listened. Instead, the world championed Luigi Mangione as a “hero of the oppressed.” I said it 4 months ago when two innocent Americans were shot and killed while the shooter screamed “free Palestine,” and nobody listened. Instead, the world said it was inevitable. I said it just last week when a school shooter’s manifesto was found inscribed with all the same rhetoric as above. Do you see the pattern yet? At every turn, what’s been clear as day to sober eyes has been repeatedly ignored by the entire nation: that left-wing terrorism is being quietly nurtured in the American mind. If we do not stop it, we will all eventually surrender to it. If we allow left-wing extremism to saturate every facet of our society, from media, to education, to social media—spearheaded by radicalized influencers—it will be the death of our tolerant societies. It will be the death of plurality and dissent. It will be the death of democracy. Above all, it will be the death of us. Now look. How many more? How much longer can we keep ignoring this? America, are you awake now?

@Finalbossjimmy The original sample was Hot Music by Soho, which actually sampled Wynton Marsalis' - Skain's Domain youtu.be/qw_9J1nWpZ4?si…

Yall wasn’t outside, Music Choice played this jam every 5 mins

@elicalebon Do you ever fear you might be giving undue attention to phenomena that exist almost exclusively online? How widely held do you believe these views are? A crusade against an enemy that appears lethal in 246 characters but disintegrates in the presence of oxygen in the real world

@RIKKISCHLOTT The propensity amongst said commenters to take your tweet extremely literally made me chuckle - "RW bAsEd bRo nO wAnT bAr GiRl". Rather than taking in what I think is the true message. Touch grass and go and speak to people outside, odds for single men are pretty favourable

so many of yall in the comments actually hate women it’s insane

@zoecabina Pan-Arab Colours denoting the numerous Arab Caliphates of 7th Century Black: the Abbasid Caliphate, the Rashidun Caliphate White: the Umayyad Caliphate Green: the Fatimid Caliphate and the Rashidun Caliphate Some may say the colours of Arab/Islamic revanchism

We are supposed to believe that Palestine is a unique culture and people

@geoffwilt I actually quite enjoy his music I dig the eccentric theatricality but I think the black midi faithful overstate how revolutionary/original it is. It probably sounds absolutely incredible if you haven't listened to any Gentle Giant, Soft Machine, Magma etc.

@andyzax @Andr6wMale That Hollins and Starr record is awesome

Last night I had a small vinyl clear out of records I no longer play or have duplicates for. All are VG+ and NM. Left Banke is the amazing Sundazed reissue. DM me if you’re interested. UK only and no timewaters, as the stall traders say.

@NateSilver538 Strange trade for the Knicks. Good trade for the Timberwolves. Clearing out $220m of salary over the next 4 years for an expiring contract in Randle. No way they wanted to pay KAT that money. For the Knicks seems like one move too many. A win now move for a non-win now piece

If as reported, 60/40 a net positive for the Knicks. Real upsides and downsides. Gambly trade.