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will
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I’m super excited to share that Odds on Open officially has a sponsor.
For the next five months, we’re partnering with Onyx (@onyxcapgroup), the world’s largest oil derivatives trading firm.
Back in March, Greg Newman (@GNewmanOfficial), founder and CEO of Onyx, came on Odds on Open to talk about how oil trading firms are navigating market volatility in the wake of the Iran War. Today, two months later, he and his firm are becoming the podcast’s first brand partner.
When Odds on Open first launched, we wanted to reduce the opacity of the quant finance industry and increase the amount of high-quality content on trading markets.
In some ways, Onyx is solving similar problems, only on a much larger scale.
The oil markets are one of the most opaque on the planet. Just to access the contracts that actually price physical oil, you need millions in capital, tens of thousands in annual data fees, and a clearing relationship with a bank that has to decide you're worth the trouble.
Greg and the team at Onyx are trying to do for oil what Revolut did for FX: take a market that has historically been expensive and difficult to access, and make it cheaper, more transparent, and easier for more people to participate in.
Thank you, Greg, for believing in our show. And thank you to everyone who’s been tuning in every week. The last few months of building this with my brother Patrick have (so far) been the most rewarding thing I’ve done, and we’re excited to see where this partnership can take us.
GIF
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great short piece from my bestie @jlxpayne_ about data center buildout risk:
gasteizresearch.substack.com/p/financing-sm…
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Just survived a full day at Huaqiangbei - the world’s most legendary electronics bazaar. Vendors pulling you in every direction. Walked out with knockoff AirPods Max, a 山寨 Dyson… guess I’ll compare them to the real ones when I get home 👀 #Chinamaxxing
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Today in @Bloomberg:
Framework partner @rajivpoc discusses Hyperliquid's push into prediction markets
Link in comments👇👇
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Yesterday, we had our first $100m day on @QFEX.
This was quite a jump from our previous best day, and what was notable was that user-requested AI stocks accounted for a substantial amount of the volume amidst high volatility.
Equity perps (excluding indices) are still very underserved; volumes and OI are low across the board.
Around a month ago, we decided this meant a massive growth opportunity. Unlike commodities, equities generally go up - they are tied to the performance of large, revenue-generating companies, many of which are generating supercharged returns in the age of AI.
I have personally been long 2x my entire net worth in US stocks for the past 3 years, and believe that owning equities will become the single biggest wealth generator for my generation, like home ownership was in the past.
This means our users make money from the AI economy. Our market makers make money offsetting flows and collecting a risk premium for quoting large sizes in off-market and weekend hours, where they don't have a hedge. We make money providing the venue. Everyone wins.
We had to make a lot of upgrades to be able to list new products quickly and seamlessly, but ultimately it was a labour of love for listing requests from our earliest users.
@QFEX will be THE exchange for equity perps
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We're pleased to announce that Legend has raised a $3.5 million seed round, led by @ElectricCapital, with participation from @ambergroup_io and @GSR_io, bringing our total raised to over $5 million.
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the next hollow knight will emerge from the threejs indie trenches
Alexis Ohanian 🗽@alexisohanian
Gaming got written off post-COVID while everyone chased AI, but it’s still a ~$200B market and the incumbents are weaker than they’ve been in years. Last cycle gave us Fortnite and Roblox. This cycle will do the same. At gaming multiples vs AI at 50x revenue, it’s one of the best asymmetric bets in consumer right now. Watch.
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i 100%'d this game last night and was bawling my eyes out by the end of it
gg @maitan_69
Wavedash@wavedash
Evan's Remains is an inventive and mysterious puzzle platformer that is well worth the journey. Available now on Wavedash! wavedash.com/games/evans-re…
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I left Polymarket in February to focus on building my own product within the prediction market space.
The exchange structure of prediction markets enables them to offer users experiences that a sportsbook never could. This paired with the ongoing commoditization of DCM and DCO licenses presents a huge surface area for innovation that, in my opinion, is relatively unexplored.
If this thinking resonates with you and you're looking to build, let's chat. DMs are open + I'll be in SF and NY over the coming months 🥋
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i think RWA looping presents an opportunity, but it cannot become a systemic risk to the rest of the ecosystem
Jason@latent0x
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Bear Grylls on the gap between what made him famous and what he actually cares about.
Bear: "You become known for something. If you win Wimbledon at eighteen, you will be asked about that final for the rest of your life."
Climbed Everest aged 21. SAS Soldier. Host of Man vs Wild.
"I will always be asked about the worst thing I've ever eaten, drinking my own pee, Obama, breaking my back, the military, Everest."
Every interview. Same questions. Every day.
"Our boys say journalists are obsessed with the SAS and Everest. It's fine. It just gets a little tiring if you're doing a lot of press."
The survival feats built the brand. But they overshadow the mission.
"I much prefer talking about life. I prefer talking about other people."
Running Wild changed the model.
"I did seven seasons of Man Vs Wild before. Now I take rookies, guide them, watch them grow."
From lone warrior to mentor.
"I've loved encouraging young people as Chief Scout.”
The contrast:
Early career: prove you can survive anything.
Now: help others survive their own storms.
"I am more excited about other people's journeys. Your great stuff is ahead of you. The storms will make you."
One sells. One fulfills.
"Those struggles will be the making of you. You deserve what is coming."
The headlines stay the same.
But the mission evolved years ago.
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Would highly recommend you to check out Odds on Open by @ethanrkho if you haven't already.
Highest signal podcast out there at the moment.
Ethan Kho@ethanrkho
MUST-WATCH: Why SIG Dominated Options Trading — Explained by an 8-Year Insider Kris Abdelmessih (@KrisAbdelmessih) spent 8 years trading energy derivatives at SIG, then ran options businesses at Parallax & Prime before founding Moontower —one of the world's most popular newsletters on options & volatility trading. "SIG understood there was an abnormal amount of edge in the market. They came from gambling—sports betting, poker—where edge was tiny. A bookie makes 5% margins. But trading a $2.5 call spread for $2.20 when it's worth $2.50? That's a ridiculous amount of edge compared to gambling, with the same risk distribution." We cover: - Why SIG was called "the evil empire" & how they crushed competitors by trading massive size for tighter spreads - The exact structure of prop shop deals: 50/50 splits, escrow accounts, how you get to 60% then 70% payouts - Why markets look efficient from most vantage points & how trading is ultimately about labor—getting your vantage point close enough that it stops looking random - The tyranny of beta: why the best operator in a melting ice cube business will lose to a mediocre performer in a great market - How to escape the "striver" trap & tune out status optimization (hint: find what you got obsessed with before college applications mattered) - Teaching his 12-year-old options market making & involving his 9-year-old in building a trading card game—scattered cards on the bedroom floor that'll become a finished product Thanks to @KrisAbdelmessih for the masterclass. Highlights: 02:05 How Kris first recognized real trading edge 04:01 How early market structure created easy edge 05:27 Why improvement in trading comes from hindsight 07:08 The core SIG frameworks that shaped his edge 09:37 Why uncovering edge requires labor and precision 11:02 How informed order flow forces trader humility 12:53 What truly differentiated SIG from competitors 13:23 How SIG built a world-class education pipeline 16:30 How SIG captured edge by refusing to hedge 18:11 How centralized risk controlled exposure and variance 19:09 How SIG used size and spreads to dominate markets 23:20 What Kris learned working with Jason McCarthy 25:40 Why elite traders share extreme competitiveness 26:06 How top performers operate across domains and PM roles 28:22 How Kris transitioned from SIG to prop trading 31:56 What shifting into senior roles taught him about trading 33:46 How Kris built training and feedback systems for traders 35:00 How the backer model works inside prop shops 38:41 How escrow capital protects traders from tail events 41:03 How natural gas options trading changed with regime shifts 42:13 How Kris applies trading edge concepts to life decisions 45:46 Why personal alignment beats chasing status in trading 47:13 How status games distort decision-making for young traders 52:23 Why striver behavior is actually risk management 56:27 How Kris teaches opportunity cost through parenting 1:01:28 How exposing kids to decisions builds intuition 1:04:46 How Kris teaches EV using homemade trading games 1:08:05 How iteration and feedback loops shape real learning
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will retweetledi
MUST-WATCH: How David Orr Built Militia Capital
David Orr (@orrdavid) played professional poker in Thailand, got squeezed out by bots, then taught himself to invest from scratch. Today Militia Capital manages a multi-PM platform with 1,200 positions. No Wharton MBA. No analyst years. Just 15-hour days reading up on stocks and thinking in expected value.
"I don't need to boost my own ego and prove my idea will be right in 30 years. If it's not making money within months or a couple quarters, I'm wrong—and I cut it completely."
We cover:
- Why the "Bet Against Beta" paper destroyed everything he learned about risk
- Finding 200-to-1 odds on inflation using eurodollar futures (risked 0.5%, closed early at 20-to-1)
- How he shorted NVIDIA in 2023, got blindsided by earnings, then flipped long: "This could be the most valuable company in the world"
- Running 350 positions personally: airports, Japan small caps, natural gas pipelines—themes you can ride for decades
- Why pod shops are "fleecing pensions" with factor-neutral mandates & why he gives PMs 90% economics after 3 years
- The support role opportunity nobody talks about: operations people who save $2M/year in financing costs
- His advice for aspiring investors: "Get an Interactive Brokers account with $10K. Bet small on 30 genuinely different ideas. If you don't want to look at stocks 15 hours a day within the first month, give up."
Thanks @orrdavid for the conversation.
Highlights:
00:00 From Poker to Hedge Funds 05:38 Exploring Asymmetric Bets: The Search for Value
11:32 The Future of Hedge Funds 17:08 Risk Management in Investing 30:32 Understanding Risk Management in Investment
35:49 The Unique Path to Becoming an Investor
43:47 Building Your Own Investment Edge
50:49 The Importance of Passion & Commitment in Investing
58:26 Exploring Support Roles in the Investment Industry
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Gm
My friends often ask me about breaking into quant, what working in quant trading is actually like, and how I think about crypto and trading outside of hft. After years of staring at charts every day and talking to projects, teams, and people across the space, I’ve built some intuition, so I figured I’d share these situations to a wider audience who might find them interesting too.
I’ll start this account like I started this process - Jane Street, and how I got blacklisted. I was a cocky fresher in my first term, and whispers of this elusive firm called Jane Street were floating around. We heard they paid well, relative to tech and investment banking. The website said it had a cool culture, and that the internship needed no prerequisites. We hadn’t even taken probability in that first semester, but they said our high school curriculum was enough. It took 2 minutes to apply, unlike the banking spring week apps my friends were filling out. All they needed was a CV upload and an optional essay in this dialogue box - we left that blank.
Being a cambridge math student was enough for us (me and two friends) to get the first round interview - the email came one or two days later. It was a pretty quick technical phone interview, and the day after that, we got another email asking for availability for the second
round interview. Everything was going so smoothly. Mine was on a Thursday afternoon around 2pm. As an arrogant kid, I went to Cindies (a club) the day before, and woke up 20 mins before this call. I thought it would be similar to the first, but it was harder. None of us cleared it. They told us to reapply the following year.
After taking probability, speaking to the third/fourth years above us, and reading more about trading, we reapplied in michaelmas term of second year with a better understanding of how competitive it was going to be, what they were going to ask and more importantly, knowing that they paid $$$. We applied to the tier 2/3 firms for practice like IMC/SIG/Flow, worked through Heard on the Street, and prepped harder. After submitting the CV, we picked up at the phone interview again, and this time I passed, and was invited down to their London office.
I could answer the first couple of warm up questions, but in the first interview on that day, they asked me the question below.
I struggled for a while, ran test cases, tried working forwards, working backwards, and then gave up. I said I’d need to Monte Carlo it. There were some other questions, like fermi estimations and more probability, but this is the one question which I completely bombed. Every year since, I’ve followed the tradition of sending a CV to Jane Street to collect the annual pre-interview rejection (also <1d reply times from their HR - hey Sam if you’re seeing this, hope you’re doing well).
Would you have gotten into Jane Street anon?
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will retweetledi
Today, we're incredibly excited to announce USD accounts for Pakistan.
The first one built for this market's needs. The first one built on stablecoin + banking rails.
Freelancers, remote workers, & crypto users can get paid & send funds globally, spend with their card, or withdraw to local banks and crypto exchanges, all in minutes.
Karsa | YC W25@Go_Karsa
Introducing Karsa USD accounts for Pakistan. Get paid globally. Spend instantly. Withdraw to your bank or crypto exchange in minutes. Built for this market. Built on stablecoin + banking rails.
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