yadgen.eth
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yadgen.eth
@yadgen_eth
Ride the wave of innovation with web3 and NFTs, revolutionizing how we create, own, and share digital assets. 🌊🌐








METEORITE STRIKE ON EARTH An interesting event has appeared on @Polymarket, where you can predict whether a meteorite with a power of at least 5 kt will hit our planet Earth in the coming year. This market has already attracted a decent amount of interest, and most traders believe that a strike on Earth will occur I am absolutely certain that this is purely speculation and has nothing to do with real science. My choice is, of course, “NO” Market: polymarket.com/event/5kt-mete… > For the next two years, scientists are not aware of any known objects with a non-zero probability of impact. > Precise estimates from the Earth Impact Effects Program (EIEP) model show that for an airburst with an energy of about 5 kt, the frequency is approximately once every 4.6 years. For 19 kt, it is once every 10 years, and for more powerful ones (for example, 82 kt), it is once every 27 years. Statistical estimate based on the Earth Impact Effects Program (EIEP) model, where the cumulative frequency of such events is about 0.38 per year (taking into account the distribution of energies from 5 kt and above) These figures are based on observation statistics and modeling of near-Earth object (NEO) flows > Astronomers do not guess, but calculate thousands of scenarios The probability of an impact is the fraction of possible orbits, not an “opinion” That is why analysts give an average statistical chance of 33% of an impact in this or any other year; this is simply a standard figure Since 2021, there have been no events ≥5 kt recorded in CNEOS public data, but this does not change the overall statistics — pauses of 5–6 years are possible at this frequency > Since 1988, according to NASA CNEOS data, about 1,000 fireballs of various magnitudes have been recorded, of which ~20–30 exceed 5 kt. In recent years (after 2020), CNEOS has recorded events <5 kt, but nothing larger than 2–3 kt has been noted in public data for 2026 NASA's Sentry system, which monitors potential impacts, has recorded two objects with a very low probability of impact in 2026. Object “2013 TP4” Probability of impact: 0.0035% Object “2023 BZ” Probability: 0.0038% NASA rules out significant risks from known asteroids in the coming years, including 2026; all potential impacts have probabilities below 0.01% <> As a result, we have a picture that it is SIMPLY ACCEPTED IN THE WORLD that once a year a meteorite falls somewhere on Earth. But in fact, this is idle talk without facts, without scientific opinion, without justification. Everything indicates that there is currently no REAL data on possible such impacts. Therefore, it is simply foolish to bet on “YES” <>


















