A Dismal Optimist
4.4K posts
A Dismal Optimist
@yah5us
THE chief economist. undergrad studying the reflected-sound-of-underground-spirits. “neoliberal sociopath” and "market idolator"
Katılım Ekim 2022
288 Takip Edilen628 Takipçiler
today has been a very “lowly undergrad vs the world” day
English
“I’d like to estimate the effect of X on Y. Huh I wonder why I can’t find any high quality studies on the topic. Oh well!”
English
Some moron decided to do their finals project on something for which there is no panel data
English
@jack_whitcomb_ Doesn’t help that most people view the economy through memes
A Dismal Optimist@yah5us
no, people just do not understand what the metrics are measuring and get their ideas about the economy through memes. If we ask people how well they are doing financially they say we get a different picture.
English
On the vibecession discourse: remember that if you don't use data to resolve disagreements, you get middle ages flat earth thinking. You are declaring the very concept of vibecession / round earth impossible because The People could never be wrong about what's in front of them.
English
This is true for essentially every other economic indicator. People just don't know how the world around them works and get their information through memes.
English
when the answer is that the labour market is dynamic. There will always be a newspaper article talking about "massive layoffs" in any given sector, because firms die and new firms are made all the time. Most people do not read beyond headlines, let alone think about the actual magnitudes involved.
English
no, people just do not understand what the metrics are measuring and get their ideas about the economy through memes. If we ask people how well they are doing financially they say we get a different picture.
English
@GregoryRGreco @StatisticUrban @JohnWakefieId Its main issues are that it uses different deflators for wages and productivity (CPI vs GDP deflator), net productivity not labour productivity, and doesn’t count benefits.
English
so is the swarmy smug liberal take on here that there's essentially a permanent delusional hysteria among the entire population? as opposed to their old crusty and captured metrics obviously failing to meaningfully capture the economic picture?
doesn't seem quite so reasonable.
Basil🧡@LinkofSunshine
The permanent vibecession is here to stay
English
English
English
@GregoryRGreco @StatisticUrban @JohnWakefieId It’s a dig at the EPI graph, which makes the same mistake the chart I just posted did. Their measure is not apples to apples.
English
@BanhmiBrieoche This is a tiny revision (on the order of less than 1%) and is done because the BLS uses tax data to fix their earlier estimation, they do this on a scheduled basis.
English
Do y'all remember when apparently the BLS recently revised away 800,000 jobs it said were added a year earlier. The methodology is just too poor to be meaningful
Basil🧡@LinkofSunshine
The permanent vibecession is here to stay
English
In economics there’s supply AND demand
Gemma@windupgemma
My last rent increase was because the landlord noticed that the market rate for the area had gone up Not because his costs went up, but because other landlords were charging more in my area and my landlord felt left out and thought I should pay him more for the same thing
English
@Spector37214958 @shearersbuddy @lisathebeauty1 @love_mee11 this is a bad chart and doesn't compare apples to apples, it's like posting this:
English
English
A Dismal Optimist retweetledi
Economically, Americans just are not doing particularly badly right now.
Real wages, controlling for inflation, have grown for nearly all deciles in recent years. The only exception is the very lowest decile, solely in 2025, in large part due to Trump's tariffs.
English