Yaakov Cantor

TROPICS: One of several things I am watching for is the chance of early season, 'close to home' weak tropical development before the real hostile effects of El Nino really settle in. The Caribbean is about 3 weeks ahead of typical ocean heat average. Continued dry, hot, and sunny weather in the Gulf, Bahamas, and Caribbean in the next 10-14 days will likely add to the ocean warming. It would not be a surprise to me at all if there was an impactful weaker system or two around in the southeast U.S. pre-July 4th this year.

vs. an El Nino whose atmospheric coupling is hindered by persistent -PDO/-IPO, resulting in strong westerly upper-level winds having less impact on the Caribbean and Atlantic tropical activity more similar to "Active El Nino" years like 1899, 1951, 1969 and 2018.

The two scenarios represent dipoles that could realistically happen this year: a strong to super Nino with overpowering atmos. coupling mainly shutting down the tropical Atlantic...

The PDO not only was highly negative in Mar/Apr, it dropped even deeper into negative values vs. Jan/Feb. Seeing such a strong -PDO/-IPO is in my view a red flag for the potential that the upcoming El Nino evolves differently than the overpowering super Nino that many expect

FLORIDA RAINFALL TOTALS: The good news over the past 3 days we had some nice totals in the Panhandle...areas that are currently battling a Level 5/5 Exceptional Drought. Pockets of 3+" of rain! Still need a lot more to eliminate the deficit.

This Desert SW US cut off upper low anomaly, which favors anomalous tornado activity in June, is a direct "Gill" response to the increase in Tropical Pacific convection from El Niño

7-day trend showing the tropical Atlantic warming more clearly

Sembra una foto di gennaio. Invece siamo quasi a maggio, sull’Etna. In alta quota resistono ancora muri di neve impressionanti, in molti punti superiori ai 6 metri. È una delle immagini più potenti della primavera mediterranea. Mentre in pianura si parla di caldo, sole e primi assaggi quasi estivi, sulle quote più alte dell’Etna l’inverno non ha ancora lasciato del tutto la scena. La montagna conserva quello che la pianura dimentica in fretta. Photo Credit: Fabrizio Zuccarello

Pretty impressive MCS has developed over Morocco this evening between Marrakesh and Rabat ⚡️

Northern part of Dead Sea today

A question for weather #regime fans: would you consider this ECMWF day-10 forecast more +NAO or -NAO? ECMWF regimes show +NAO, but their +NAO summer pattern has a trough from Ireland to Scandinavia (very unconventional in summer) Our 4-regime scheme suggests more -NAO alignment

The product created by @MateuszTaszarek, along with other ML guidance, gave me confidence at a longer lead time that today would be a higher-end day. Things could still get messy and not be a super-robust outbreak, but his tool is a wonderful product for forecasting!

Loool +8C subsurface anomalies 😂