Aakash Gupta@aakashgupta
Disney is about to delete five years of canon because Rey doesn't move toys.
The sequel trilogy did $4.47B at the box office. Force Awakens $2.07B, Last Jedi $1.33B, Rise of Skywalker $1.07B. The merchandise tells a different story.
Star Wars merchandise peaked at $700M in 2015 when Force Awakens launched. By 2019, the year Rise of Skywalker shipped with a billion-dollar marketing push as the supposed finale of the Skywalker Saga, Hasbro's Star Wars line was doing roughly $150M. A 70%+ collapse during the trilogy's own theatrical run.
Then 2020 happened. No new movies. A streaming show legally unavailable in most international markets. Hasbro's Star Wars revenue grew 70% year-over-year. One character named Grogu outsold three years of sequel-trilogy merchandise.
The sequel cast specifically can't move inventory at any price point. Rey, Finn, Poe, Rose, Holdo: Walmart clearance for years. Diamond Select's president said sales on TFA and TLJ products "were not too strong." Hasbro silently stopped producing Rise of Skywalker figures mid-line. There is no mass-market action figure for Poe, Finn, Lando, unmasked Kylo, Palpatine, or Leia from that movie. The licensees gave up before the trilogy finished releasing.
The Lucasfilm acquisition was a $4.05B bet on the merchandise flywheel that built modern Hollywood toy licensing. Kenner's best year selling Original Trilogy toys, adjusted for inflation, outperformed the entire Disney era combined. That's the asset Disney bought.
Galaxy's Edge runs the same play. Over $1B per park to build a Star Wars land set on a sequel-era planet nobody cared about. Both parks underperformed projections. The Mandalorian-themed expansion now under construction is the admission.
If the rumor lands, this is the most expensive retcon in entertainment history. Five years of IP development written off because the licensees voted with their order books. Luke, Han, Leia, Vader, Boba, Mando, Grogu, Ahsoka generate revenue. The sequel cast generates returns.
