@YC Ghost

All wars are banker wars ⬇️

@DarioCpx COVID style shutdowns coming globally

Global supply shortages due to Middle East disruptions are about to turn from temporary to permanent and the market isn’t currently pricing this risk at all

Oh man it really IS going to be a dumb product with Trump's name on it, isn't it?

@elerianm We are going to get Covid style lockdowns due to shortages, right into a "2008" style credit crisis. 🚨 x.com/yieldcurveghos…

Please see below from CNBC regarding the market’s expectation of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve. Needless to say, this represents a 180-degree change from the conversations in markets over the last several months and quarters, which focused on when—and by how much—the Fed would cut. And it comes at a time of an endogenous tightening of liquidity conditions. #economy #markets #federalreserve

@FirstSquawk US 10 year yield at 4.7%. This is much more important.

NASDAQ DOWN 130.71 POINTS, OR 0.61 PERCENT, AT 21,277.37 AFTER MARKET OPEN S&P 500 DOWN 31.32 POINTS, OR 0.48 PERCENT, AT 6,445.84 AFTER MARKET OPEN DOW JONES DOWN 281.83 POINTS, OR 0.61 PERCENT, AT 45,678.28 AFTER MARKET OPEN

Global bond markets this morning. US 10yr: 4.46%. Near 8-month highs. UK 2yr: still elevated after hitting 4.83% Monday. German Bunds: highest since 2011. Fed hike by December: now 50% probability. Three weeks ago markets were pricing three cuts. This isn’t just about Iran. BlackRock said it this week — and it maps exactly onto what I described in the Three Crises framework: “Higher yields are here to stay — even when the conflict ends.” Read that again. Even. When. The conflict. Ends. Because the bond market isn’t selling off on Iran anymore. It is selling off on the structural reality that was already there before the first strike. The 2020 layer — the energy shock — cracked the surface. What’s underneath is the 2008 layer and the 1970s layer. $1.8 trillion in private credit with a 9.2% default rate. Hedge funds catastrophically stopped out of basis trades — forced Treasury selling creating its own feedback loop independent of any fundamental data. A Fed that cannot cut because inflation is structurally elevated. A yield curve at month 7 of the post-inversion danger window. The Iran conflict will eventually resolve. The bond market knows what comes after. BlackRock downgraded US stocks this week. Markets now price a Fed hike. The private credit cascade has claimed 7 funds in 6 weeks. This is not a geopolitical spike, it’s a repricing of an entire era. @KobeissiLetter @elerianm @NourielRoubini @charliebilello @jam_croissant #Bonds #GlobalMacro #Fed #PrivateCredit #Stagflation #FinTwit #CrisesSynthesis

@elerianm Buckle up x.com/yieldcurveghos…

The "compare and contrast" here is fascinating: While markets experienced a massive relief rally on Monday following the President’s “delay” announcement, that behavior has not repeated so far this morning following last night's announcement (below). Relief has been replaced by concerns over prolonged uncertainty, amplified by three key factors: Inflation and Growth: Growing worries about how much the current configuration fuels inflation, erodes financial resilience, and undermines growth. Limited Policy Headroom: The realization that policy flexibility is relatively limited overall. Market Dynamics: Increased evidence of adverse endogenous dynamics, particularly within segments of the global bond markets (please see prior post). #economy #markets #middleeastwar #inflation #growth #financialstability

@DeItaone But I was told we control the straight

RUBIO: HORMUZ COULD BE OPENED TOMORROW IF IRAN ALLOWED IT

The mainstream is watching oil. Macro is watching everything but oil: metals, fertilizers, industrial inputs, freight. This is 2021–22 supply‑chain inflation, but with geopolitics instead of COVID. The risk isn’t higher prices — it’s structural inflation.

Prescent. x.com/yieldcurveghos…

Markets are still trading the “delayed cuts” narrative, but the data is saying something else: • PPI re‑accelerates • Payrolls roll over • GDP revised down • Energy + supply chain shocks spreading beyond oil

This you?

@financialjuice This you?

Trump reiterates 4 to 6-week timeline for the Iran war.

Oil is the headline, but the real macro story is underneath it. Non‑oil commodities are tightening, supply chains are fragmenting again, and PPI is re‑accelerating while payrolls crack. Everyone’s debating rate cuts, but the setup looks more like early‑stage stagflation than a soft landing.

Yes sir. x.com/yieldcurveghos…

@LukeGromen The war that was going to take 3 days is going so well....

“Many of the 13 military bases in the region used by American troops are all but uninhabitable, with the ones in Kuwait, which is next door to Iran, suffering perhaps the most damage.” -NYT just now First MSM admission I’ve seen of this fact

Everyone talks about money a lot (including me), but very rarely do we ask the foundational question of “what is money?” 99% of people will give some generic answer to that question that falls apart under scrutiny. What’s the best definition for money?

One month ago: 95% chance of a Fed cut in 2026. Today: 9%. That is not a gradual repricing. That is the market abandoning an entire macro narrative in 30 days. And it gets worse. There is now an 8% chance the Fed HIKES at next month's meeting. A 17% chance of at least one hike by year end. Three weeks ago that number was zero. Vanguard's chief economist today: "If we breach $150 oil and stay there — markedly weaker growth, much higher inflation, and the Fed in an even trickier spot." Citi sees $200 oil if disruption extends through June. $200 oil. Fed that cannot cut. Private credit cascading. Yield curve at month 7. @KobeissiLetter @elerianm @charliebilello #Fed #Rates #Stagflation #Macro #FinTwit

Iran is now charging ships $2 million per voyage to transit the Strait of Hormuz. Not closing it. Taxing it. A closed Strait is an act of war with a clear resolution. A tolled Strait is permanent infrastructure leverage. This does not end when the war ends. This ends when someone physically removes Iran's ability to collect. Citi just said oil could hit $200 if disruption extends through June. The market is pricing a negotiated deal. Iran is pricing a permanent toll booth. #Hormuz #Oil #Iran #Macro #FinTwit #Brent

@MartyBent x.com/yieldcurveghos…

Apollo just locked the exits on its $25 billion private credit fund. This morning Ares did the same. $10 billion in redemption requests this quarter alone. Goldman says $70 billion more is coming. The "uncorrelated returns" pitch is dead. You can't leave. Meanwhile Bitcoin trades 24/7/365. No gates. No lockups. No permission needed. New podcast is up. fountain.fm/episode/NnlAx6…