远山无限
657 posts
Chip stock bulls watching the rotation to SaaS when 99% of their portfolio is
$NVDA, $AMD, $INTC $MU $SNDK
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Generated from the GPT-Image-2. Oh, I'll fire my UI designer asap.
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川普和普金真是天造地设的一对，都把先动手的战争说成是自卫，都说不是战争是特别军事行动，一个说北约纳入新成员是地缘扩张，威胁俄国安全，一个真的顺应这话术把北约当成军事进攻同盟，谁知道是不是揣着明白装糊涂？事到如今我看还是分了吧，美俄在一起得了，欧洲可以和中国结盟。没错我会支持后者。
OSINTdefender@sentdefender
U.S. President Donald J. Trump told The Telegraph that he is strongly considering pulling the United States out of NATO after it failed to join his ongoing war against Iran, stating that the alliance is a “paper tiger” and that this is known by Russia and President Vladimir Putin.
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@torontobigface 方脸的逻辑水平已经跟王志安差不多了吗？把一场绝对正义的抵抗战争跟一场混合着阴谋的师出无名的战争相提并论，堪比王志安把共产党的系统性坏和民运个人的参吃不齐相提并论。
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这就是为什么我说斩首战术对于今日的X国可能是最有效的，当然也可能是最难的。
李老师不是你老师@whyyoutouzhele
近日，日本TBS电视台报道了两会闭幕式开始前，工作人员一丝不苟擦拭习近平桌子和椅子的画面，报道称：这种过于细致的准备表明，与李强总理和其他官员相比，习近平主席属于“特殊级别”。 一名提着手提箱的安保人员，把习近平坐的位置从上到下，无死角仔细摸了一遍。 接着一名工作人员上前将习近平要要的纸和笔整齐划一的摆放好； 随后又有一名女性工作人员用仔细擦拭习近平座位的桌面和椅子。 更有两名工作人员用尺子测量习近平和李强座椅之间的距离。 每个人的桌上都有表决器，表决器上有赞成(绿色) 、但对(红)、 弃权(黄) 习近平的桌位上有两杯茶，其余人只有一杯茶。 做完一切准备工作后，习近平在众人的拥簇下进入会场。
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@torontobigface 这玩意单位重量价值很高，按理说国内外差价应该不大，国外溢价是由于人为制造的稀缺造成的。可能是大部分中国充电宝法规达不到加拿大要求或者说量太小符合法规的摊薄成本太高。
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这条帖子真是太有意了，充分显示了川普支持者有多傻逼。
Jack Posobiec@JackPosobiec
6 weeks from today we find out if we get affordable groceries or WW3
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5 分钟之前刚刷到一部新鲜出炉的 AI 电影。忍不住立刻就想分享给大家。
《代理人》，片长46分钟，我感觉这大概代表了现阶段 AI 视频的天花板水平。
画面一致性、运镜、风格这些东西，你压根不会去在意——不是因为它做得将就，恰恰相反，是因为这些已经完全不是问题了，你的注意力会被剧情拽着走，根本没有空闲去挑剔技术层面的事。这种体验，说真的，之前看AI视频从来没有过。
剧本也有点黑镜的味道，带着那种让你看完会回味、会隐隐不安的劲儿。
刚好周末，时间也不长，推荐大家去看看。
视频我也传了，链接也放了，绝对的细糠。v.douyin.com/usS2OAJH_DE/
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打仗一时爽
Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡@shanaka86
JUST IN: The most irreversible consequence of this war is not happening in Tehran. It is happening in a barn in Iowa. A farmer is standing over a kitchen table looking at two seed catalogues. One is corn. One is soybeans. Corn needs 180 pounds of nitrogen per acre. Nitrogen costs $610 per ton on the CBOT March futures settlement as of yesterday, up 35 percent in a month. Soybeans fix their own nitrogen from the atmosphere through root bacteria called rhizobia. They need nothing from the Strait of Hormuz. The farmer is choosing soybeans. Millions of acres are choosing soybeans. And once the planter rolls into the field, the choice cannot be reversed until next year. USDA projected corn at roughly 94 million acres for 2026, down from 98.8 million. Soybeans at 85 million, up from 81.2 million. Those projections were published February 19, before urea surged past $683 at New Orleans. The actual shift will be larger. USDA Prospective Plantings reports March 31. By then the seeds will be in the ground. This is the transmission channel the world is not watching. A 21-mile strait enforced by provincial commanders with sealed radio orders just rewrote the planting economics of 90 million acres of the most productive farmland on Earth. Not through sanctions. Not through diplomacy. Through the price of a single molecule that corn cannot grow without and soybeans do not need. Now follow the cascade. The Renewable Fuel Standard mandates 15 billion gallons of corn ethanol annually. That consumes roughly 43 percent of the entire US corn crop. The mandate is set by the EPA. It does not flex when corn acres shrink. It is inelastic demand consuming a fixed share of a declining supply. When supply tightens against a fixed mandate, the remaining corn reprices upward. Corn above $5 per bushel compresses every margin downstream. The US cattle herd stands at 86.2 million head, a 75-year low per USDA NASS. Poultry and pork operations face compression from higher corn prices. Feed is the single largest cost in livestock production. When feed reprices, protein reprices. When protein reprices, every grocery shelf in America absorbs the increase. This is the protein cascade. Corn to feed to meat to eggs to dairy to the checkout counter. Each link tightens because the link before it tightened. The originating cause is a urea molecule that cannot transit a strait because a provincial commander’s sealed orders say it cannot. The farmer did not start this war. The farmer cannot end it. The farmer responds to the price on the screen and the biology of the two crops in front of him. Corn needs the molecule. Soybeans do not. At $610 the arithmetic is settled. The planter rolls. The season is locked. Israel just authorised the assassination of every Iranian official on sight. The US has spent $16.5 billion. South Pars is burning. The Fed is holding rates because oil inflation will not break. Gold touched $5,000. Bitcoin is bleeding. China is running exercises near Taiwan. Sri Lanka shut down on Wednesdays. And underneath all of it, a man in a barn is making the decision that determines whether four billion people pay more for food this year. He has never heard of the Mosaic Doctrine. He does not know what a sealed contingency packet is. He knows what nitrogen costs. And he is planting soybeans. Full analysis - open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…
日本語
远山无限 retweetledi
🛢️There's a lot being said about oil prices right now, so I put this chart together to help explain the major crude benchmarks and why they're all behaving differently.
⚪Brent (white) — The world's "default" oil price. Most global trade is priced off this. When the news says "oil is at $108," they mean Brent.
🟡WTI (yellow) — The U.S. benchmark, based on crude delivered to Oklahoma. It's the lowest line on the chart because American oil doesn't need to transit the Strait of Hormuz.
🟢Murban (green) — Crude from Abu Dhabi, delivered at Fujairah port, which sits just outside the Strait. Even though it technically doesn't have to pass through the chokepoint, drone strikes have hit Fujairah and nearby ports, pushing insurance and shipping costs up.
🟣Oman (purple) — The key benchmark for heavier crude sold into Asia. Many refineries in China, Japan, and South Korea are built specifically to process this grade. It's the highest line on the chart because Asian buyers are competing fiercely for a shrinking pool of cargoes.
🔴Dubai (red) — Used to price most long-term Gulf→Asia export contracts. It tracks alongside Oman as a measure of how hard Asian markets are being squeezed.
The story isn't any single price — it's the gap between them. In late February these five lines were within $6 of each other. Now the spread between WTI and Oman is over $50.
Since the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran began Feb 28, the Strait of Hormuz has effectively been closed. Daily transits have fallen from a historical average of ~138 ships to fewer than 5. The IEA has called it the largest disruption to global energy supply in history. Iran's IRGC has warned that not "a litre of oil" will pass for U.S. allies, while selectively allowing some Iranian, Indian, and Pakistani tankers through.
Saudi Arabia is rerouting oil to its Red Sea port at Yanbu, and the UAE is using a pipeline to Fujairah — but combined pipeline capacity is only 3.5–5.5 million barrels/day vs the 20 million that normally flows through the Strait. Meanwhile, the 400 million barrel emergency reserve release by IEA members covers roughly 4 days of global consumption.
Japan's refiners get ~95% of their crude from the Gulf. China receives 45% of its oil via Hormuz. South Korea, India, Thailand, Pakistan, and Bangladesh are all severely exposed. The wider the spread between the Asian benchmarks and Western ones on this chart, the more you're seeing that pain in real time.
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中国花了十年时间试图从韩国移除萨德系统，而伊朗只用了两周就做到了。
北京不惜一切代价也要把那套系统撤出去。
旅游禁令、品牌抵制、多年的外交压力。
安-TPY2 雷达可以探测到中国境内 3000 公里范围内的目标，这让他们非常恼火。
什么方法都不管用。
然后伊朗与美国开战，开始以无人预料的速度摧毁雷达系统并消耗拦截导弹库存。
到 3 月 10 日，THAAD 发射装置已在乌山空军基地装上运输机，并运往中东。
韩国公开反对这一举动，但未能阻止。
美国在全球仅部署了八套萨德系统。
来源：YouTube上的商业基础知识
x.com/MarioNawfal/st…
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