
Pursuit of Happiness
527 posts



While volatility is low, lvls are ultra precise in #ES_F. Our long trigger given here + newsletter was the 7085 Backtest/7120 Failed Breakdown Sunday evening. I just posted 7147-50 was support today. Held *exact* 1st target today was 7160 (hit), 7166 2nd (hit). 7178, 7186 above


While its only 9:10AM, all targets for today have been completed already in #ES_F as our runner from Sunday's 6793 long keeps paying. Today's targets given 8am and in newsletter were 7103, 7116, then 7131. All hit. Ride that runner. 7154, 7162, 7177 today's bonus slate



Last evening we got our standard Sunday gap down-into-bear trap long in #ES_F (same every week). Given live 6:01PM, I posted the 6793 reclaim triggers long to 6802 (hit), 6818-22 (hit) For those who missed it, 1hr ago I posted 6809 reclaim triggers to 6818-22 (hit), 6832, 6848









Closing update #ES_F: Bulls bought last nights dip - and this is a usually bullish after a big rally like Monday. 6525 reclaim was long trigger. Targets were 6544, 6562, 6592, 6624. All hit. Now we hold runner for 6647, then 6677 next week. Newsletter out soon with entries


Yet again, today's planned Failed Breakdown long played out in #ES_F. Beginning at 8am I posted to start today's rally 6520-25 had to recover. We spent 1.5hrs basing right below, then recovered. Targets I gave were 6544 (hit), 6562 (hit exact), 6592 next. 6624 above. Hold runner

We went +134 points from last evenings 6360 Failed Breakdown in #ES_F, given in advance. 6360 was a shelf of lows from Sunday. We swept it, trapped bears, recovered. Targets were 6467 (hit), 6490 (hit), 6524 stretch target (not yet). Ride runner 6447 (weak), 6413-15=supports


Strong start in #ES_F. Newsletter readers got 6367 reclaim long, but I posted live 6pm 6385 reclaim. We based below, then recovered. Targets I gave were 6412 (hit), 6420 (hit), 6454 (hit), 6492 Plan today: 6425, 6412 must hold on retraces. 6460 reclaims see 6476, 6492, 6520



Todays magnet is 6638 and it keeps paying over and over. Mid day chop now, so don't push it in #ES_F. I posted 6623 was support & watch traps of 6638. We recovered 6638 and ran to 6647 1st up. 6664, 6678, 6690-95 if we unpin. 6623, 6604 are supports below here



BREAKING. Thirty-six hours ago President Donald Trump said “obliterate.” This morning he said “productive conversations.” The question every trader, diplomat, and general is asking: what broke between Saturday night and Monday morning? Six things broke simultaneously. Not one of them was Iranian. First. The bill arrived. The Pentagon requested over $200 billion in supplemental funding. The war cost $11.3 billion in six days, $16.5 billion in twelve. At $1.38 billion per day and accelerating, congressional resistance to the supplemental is real. The money that was supposed to fund “days not weeks” now needs a vote that may not pass. Second. The Fed killed the rate-cut thesis. On March 18, the Federal Reserve held rates at 3.5 to 3.75 percent and revised its 2026 PCE inflation forecast to 2.7 percent from 2.4, citing the Iran war energy shock. The dot plot shows one cut in all of 2026, down from two. Every basis point of delayed easing is pain for housing, credit, and the Magnificent Seven. The war that was supposed to demonstrate strength is demonstrating inflation. Third. The allies revolted politely. Twenty-two countries signed up to coordinate on Hormuz. Zero committed a warship during combat. Japan is releasing strategic reserves. South Korea’s Kospi has fallen 12 percent. Europe’s gas surged 35 percent after Qatar’s LNG was knocked offline & declared force majeure up to 5 years. Trump called NATO “cowards” and got a press release. The coalition of the willing is a coalition of the waiting. Fourth. TSMC sent the signal. Taiwan imports nearly 97 percent of its energy. Its LNG reserves cover 11 days. Qatar supplies a third of global helium, which TSMC needs for chip fabrication. The helium is bottled behind a closed strait. Every Nvidia GPU, every Apple chip, every AI cluster depends on a fab in Hsinchu counting its gas in single-digit days. The Magnificent Seven have shed hundreds of billions as energy rotation crushes tech. Fifth. Birol named the damage. The IEA chief told Australia this morning that 40 energy assets across nine countries are severely damaged, global oil supply has fallen 11 million barrels per day, the crisis exceeds both 1970s shocks combined, and no country is immune. He named fertilisers and helium as interrupted flows. The man who runs global energy security called the war Trump started the worst energy crisis in modern history. Sixth. The midterms. Gas prices are up 93 cents per gallon. Sixty-six percent of Americans call this a war of choice. Sixty percent disapprove. Fifty-seven percent say it is going badly. The numbers that matter in Washington are not barrels per day. They are approval ratings in swing states where voters fill their tanks every Tuesday. Six pressures. One post. President Trump did not discover diplomacy. He discovered arithmetic. The 48-hour ultimatum was a threat. The 5-day pause is a confession that the threat’s consequences were worse than its target. Destroying power plants would have sealed the strait permanently, triggered Ghalibaf’s promise to “irreversibly destroy” Gulf desalination and energy infrastructure, crashed TSMC’s supply chain, spiked inflation past 3 percent, and handed the midterms to the opposition on a platter of $7 gasoline. The pause is real. The relief is not. The strait is still closed. The 40 assets are still damaged. The fertiliser is still blocked. The planting window is still closing. The five-day clock is already ticking. The molecules do not negotiate. The molecules wait. Full deep dive analysis: open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…


Great push to start the day and we are already running targets in #ES_F. Newsletter readers got the early entries, but I posted at 7:58AM here that "6648 reclaims see 6664, 6690+". We reclaimed 6648 just after. 6664 (hit), 6690 (almost here) Ride runner. 6707, 6716 next up





