zeze

@MoneyPrinter0x CRWV seems to not be doing much but ARM looks like a good relong here

AI牛市拆解：交易技术面 vs 产业链基本面 | 近2小时高浓度访谈干货全整理 @rickawsb 老师推荐的这份AI产业访谈长达近两小时，信息量巨大，两位嘉宾分别从交易技术面和产业基本面与供应链几个截然不同的视角，对AI牛市的行情、风险及细分赛道进行了深度拆解 我已整理成纯文字版，全文无删减，高浓度分享给大家学习👇 嘉宾：Labubu（黄老师）@labubu_trader｜挖掘机老师@QihongF44102 1️⃣ CPO与光模块：短期不看好，进度远不及预期 ➤ 挖掘机老师高度认同SemiAnalysis看空报告，CPO大爆发会推迟。CSP最看重数据中心稳定性，当前CPO在量产可靠性和维修性上根本不过关 ➤ 上游核心元件严重缺货，整个供应链产能不足，极度缺乏CW激光器，无法支持大规模上量 ➤ 光模块板块估值已透支：宁波调研显示实际交付量远低于宣称，5月北美光通信股票已提前计价2027年30倍PE，现阶段明确不看好 2️⃣ MLCC与被动元件：涨价才刚开始，弹性极大 ➤ AI服务器高端MLCC需求是传统服务器的5-7倍，高端产能被村田、太阳诱电、国巨、三星电机等少数日韩台大厂垄断（80%-90%份额） ➤ 这类资产起涨前PB极低。目前涨价刚开始，第一波炒“预期”，接下来炒“业绩兑现（Delivery）”，利润空间很大。早期看PB，中后期看PE 3️⃣ 存储与半导体设备：长线供不应求，设备迎涨价红利 ➤ 存储是5年超级周期，未来五年大概率供不应求。三星和海力士到2028年利润惊人，当前PE不到5倍（排除地缘风险，三星市值潜力5-6万亿美元） ➤ 长鑫存储IPO不冲击全球格局，反而会拉高整个存储板块估值中枢（中国半导体公司常享20-30倍估值） ➤ 全产业链缺货涨价时，半导体设备（ASML、TEL等）罕见迎来“涨价”窗口，材料端弹性更大，是本轮重点布局方向 4️⃣ 台积电与地缘政治 ➤ 台积电地位稳固。全行业都在涨价（海力士利润率达90%），台积电利润率50%-60%，涨价非常合理 ➤ 特朗普“科技国家队”支持Intel，本质是解决AI发展导致其他行业劳动力短缺的社会矛盾，是一种“转移支付”的聪明手段 5️⃣ 宏观大盘节奏与6月风险预判 ➤ 黄老师指出市场极度厌恶“不确定性”。他5月底已预测6月回调，6月存在多重不确定性（霍尔木兹海峡石油危机通胀担忧、FOMC鹰派预期、SpaceX上市抽血等），华尔街遇到不确定性会提前避险 ➤ 下半年仍处于牛市上升趋势，但走势会非常“颠簸（Chop）”，涨几天跌几天，比较折磨人 6️⃣ 核心赛道交易风险（存储、QCOM、Intel、ARM） ➤ 黄老师提醒存储（美光）短期踩踏风险极高：全市场对冲基金和新兴市场基金极度重仓且高杠杆持有，任何微小瑕疵或负面消息都可能引发大规模去杠杆 ➤ 看空QCOM与Intel概念炒作：QCOM核心Nuvia团队已大量流失，上涨纯属炒作；Intel先进封装获政策支持主要出于地缘政治，追赶台积电仍很遥远 ➤ 看好ARM长线价值：需求确立且未来可能自己做CPU，基本面优秀，但当前价格偏贵，若回调至合理区间会有较好上行空间 7️⃣ 交易体系与止盈信号 ➤ 黄老师认为：技术指标本质是“市场共识”。常用21日、50日均线，因为全市场都在用，它代表过去交易者的平均持仓成本 ➤ 散户信息天然滞后，必须通过动能、相对强度等指标确认趋势，顺势而为 ➤ 顶部止盈的绝佳信号是量价背离：高位抛物线加速、K线越来越长、成交量异常放大时（如5月底三星电机），买卖双方分歧严重，结合ATR倍数判断距离均线过远，就是强烈危险信号和止盈良机 8️⃣ 大模型降价对半导体的长远影响 ➤ 黄老师分析，OpenAI和Anthropic的Token降价竞争对下游应用爆发是绝对利好。但长远看，应用端对算力成本的敏感和压价，会以超预期速度向半导体硬件上游传导，未来半导体“靠涨价赚钱”的逻辑可能会被打破 9️⃣ 总结：AI牛市深层逻辑与风险提示 挖掘机老师认为：AI产业链的瓶颈已经从前端算力（GPU、被过度炒作的CPO）向后端的支持性硬件转移（存储、MLCC被动元件、半导体设备），这是当前资金正在重估的价值洼地 黄老师则认为：在拥挤赛道（尤其是存储）和极高杠杆环境下，市场极其脆弱，下半年将是宽幅震荡的颠簸行情。投资者需要密切关注量价极限信号（高位爆量），在充满不确定性的宏观节点前提前避险止盈 原访谈近两小时，信息密度极高，有时间建议大家去听听🤠

"A Thematic Bet for the Coming Space & Satellites Meta" // a risky & interesting play on the coming Space & Satellites Season recently, the markets has been telegraphing that the biggest space meta in recent times is coming. the $spcx ipo has elon's full and undivided attention for the near future - check the unlock schedules and u'll realize that most of the current phase's unlocks happen between june-august. in other words, market movers are incentivized to bring as much mindshare & attention to the incoming theme of Space, Satellites, Satellite Networks. look into revenue trajectories & realize that spacex's primary growth drivers has always been its Satellites & Satellite Network businesses. guess who is selling shovels in the upcoming 2T+ space & satellites meta? a 160M mcap company in Hauppauge, New York. the only US-based AI-RAN & SATCOM Satellite Infrastructure provider. $AMPG. dd findings / thesis: 1. AMPG designs, develops, and manufactures precision RF/microwave components specifically optimized for SATCOM and space systems. 2. the flagship “only U.S.” product is their ultra-low noise figure LNBs (Low Noise Block Downconverters) and related Satellite Access Point Block Downconverters (BDCs). 3. these are critical front-end components in satellite ground stations, teleports, satellite dishes, and deep-space communication systems. 4. they receive weak satellite signals (from GEO, MEO, LEO constellations, or deep-space probes), amplify them with the industry’s lowest added noise, and downconvert the frequency for further processing. their directly available, already-positioned markets include: 1. Commercial and military SATCOM (streaming, data, broadband). Small sats, LEO/MEO/GEO satellite networks. 2. Deep-space communications. 3. Test equipment for satellite access point antennas worldwide. in other words, the exact sectors positioned to enjoy one of, if not the highest speculative premium AND growth upside in the upcoming Space meta bullrun. as per statements from AMPG, 1. “the only US based company that makes LNBs with the lowest noise figures in the industry, an essential component at the heart of satellite dishes, ground stations, and teleports that are used in military and commercial streaming and data platforms across the globe.” 2. “Lowest Noise Figure Block Downconverters (LNBs): Essential for satellite ground stations and deep space communications.” not to mention, $AMPG is the only US-based homegrown infra provider for this specific SATCOM infra. in other words - it is also aligned with the current onshoring narrative. this positioning is part of their broader “Made in the USA” / supply-chain security narrative (alongside their claims for 5G O-RAN radios and cryogenic LNAs for quantum). It differentiates them from foreign-dominated suppliers in the SATCOM component space. at the current mc of writing at 160M, if market allows, it is possible for it to be rated higher and look completely normal in a market's selected sector of speculative premium in a given time. interesting to see: $RGTI revenue is $10M with market cap of 7B$. $AMPG revenue is $25M with market cap of 160m$. ..and a likely space && satellites meta upcoming. perhaps the leadup to it itself alone can bring thematic shifts. after all, frontruns has been possible in previous market environments. AMPG isn't a bet on it dominating the entire space - but it is a proxy bet that the satellite infra meta will spike as a direct product of the market pushing spacex - either on its ipo leadup or on post-ipo itself. their SATCOM division, which is the only US-made ultra-low-noise LNBs, ULNAs & LNAs, sits squarely in the middle of the LEO ground-station & teleport supply chain that every major constellation needs. $AMPG makes industry-leading ultra-low-noise-figure LNBs, ULNAs, and LNAs, and they market aggressively for LEO/MEO/GEO ground stations, teleports, and small-sat applications - which makes upside to ride the overall LEO growth wave well-within the table. interesting plays in previous metas include $AXTI going from 90M mcap to $7B mcap in a few months - not saying that this will be the next $AXTI, but if/when the next meta arrives (which is likely to be Space & Satellites atm), it is obvious that the market would be hunting for the next $AXTI or $RGTI for now, $AMPG seems to be the play well-positioned across the space / telecom sector to ride the satellite meta leadup, or hopefully the satellite meta itself - as a US-based company you can't replicate AMPG's AI-RAN infrastructure, you can't replicate AMPG's satellite ULNAs, LNAs infrastructure, you can't replicate AMPG's onshoring-aligned positioning. but most of all, you can't replicate being at the Right Place, at the Right Time. the bet is the leadup to the biggest Space meta bullrun in recent history and hopefully, the biggest Space & Satellites bullrun itself. MP NFA DYOR - always manage risk. this is a 160m mcap stock, it is risky. only bet what you are ok with being at risk. would classify this as a high-risk thematic / narrative play as part of a broader satellite basket if possible, with any further fundamental growth additions being a nice bonus. if market allows, the hope is for a nuclear meta-like space meta. please do your own DD as well 👍 ** also, the play is off a significant pump, please manage risk or even just add it on watchlist rather than blindly fomoing ------ P.S. credits to the guys who found this earlier @rk8215 @chinoalemano @ChapoGrimey. i just got in yesterday at 6$ (160M mcap) from seeing them spot the new customers $NVDA $AMZN being added to ampg's newly launched website's customer list without announcement quite reminiscent of how $DGXX went from 200m to 800m mcap just from the customer list stealth additions, leading up to the announcement - without even counting the upcoming space meta premium. personally i am entering this play knowing that it's high-risk. rationale is that on very favorable string of sequences there is a possibility for microcaps to do very well (we have seen this with $RGTI $AXTI and more) but for every crazy play there's a hundred that doesn't play out, so please don't fomo and manage risk accordingly. ------ note: i like this play and hope it does well, but if market shifts or plays shift for whatever reason, i will reduce my exposure ad-hoc. will say once again to please not over-expose yourself and manage risk accordingly 🙏 these are very high risk plays.