Polyfarmer
665 posts
@zktalent
Former degen, now humble farmer on Polymarket Follow for alpha → https://t.co/F51f5Suqx4
This is exactly right and it is the part most people miss. The pop is not a mistake, it is the implied fee the order book gets paid for showing up and taking risk on this and the NEXT tickers. ECM is a momentum business first. The new interesting question is what happens to that fee when the clearing price already exists. On @HyperliquidX the $SPCX perp has been pricing SpaceX for weeks, in public, before a single banker built a book. The risk those day-one investors get paid 20% to absorb, uncertainty about where the thing actually trades, is exactly the risk a continuous pre-IPO mark removes. The pop is the price of deferred discovery. Move the discovery forward and you start to see what the pop was really compensating. We are going to see if it was @chameleon_jeff and his traders, us included with Texas Hedge, who priced this to perfection, and not @elonmusk or the bankers. @matt_levine 👀
how I plan to win big this World Cup: (save it for later) seeing a lot of posts from polymarket traders betting on favorites at 9%-17% odds, just to wait until they qualify for the playoffs and sell the pump however, I think many of us completely forget that football is a SPORT and in sports, anything can happen remember the 2022 world cup when Argentina lost their opening match against Saudi Arabia? I bet $1 on Argentina to win the World Cup and got $100 do you think it won't happen this time? do you think there's zero chance a big team drops a match in the group stage? my plan: wait for one of the og big teams to lose against an underdog that's when the polymarket odds are gonna completely crash that's when I buy them extremely cheap and wait for them to qualify for the next stage anyway thoughts?
The European mind cannot comprehend @hyperbeat fantasy football. So i fed the rules to grok and came up with a refined approach: Core objective: - Points are allocated daily. - Get them, daily. - Ruthlessly dump stars for mid-mfers as required. Strategy: - Dont build your squad for the whole tournament, optimize for each matchday. - A player who doesn’t play today = 0 pts. - A starter who plays 60+ mins gets ~3 base pts. - Extra transfers cost -3 pts. - Replacing a non-playing starter with a reliable 60+ min player is roughly break-even before any upside. - Goals, assists, clean sheets, saves, POTM or scouting bonus are all positive EV. - Use the 2 free transfers every day. - Pay for extra transfers aggressively when they replace zeroes. - Build 11 active starters for the current matchday. - Captain the best daily spot, not the biggest tournament name. - Favor penalty takers, attackers, and defenders/GKs from strong favorites. - Don’t park budget in stars who only play days later. This is how you win.
The European mind cannot comprehend @hyperbeat fantasy football. So i fed the rules to grok and came up with a refined approach: Core objective: - Points are allocated daily. - Get them, daily. - Ruthlessly dump stars for mid-mfers as required. Strategy: - Dont build your squad for the whole tournament, optimize for each matchday. - A player who doesn’t play today = 0 pts. - A starter who plays 60+ mins gets ~3 base pts. - Extra transfers cost -3 pts. - Replacing a non-playing starter with a reliable 60+ min player is roughly break-even before any upside. - Goals, assists, clean sheets, saves, POTM or scouting bonus are all positive EV. - Use the 2 free transfers every day. - Pay for extra transfers aggressively when they replace zeroes. - Build 11 active starters for the current matchday. - Captain the best daily spot, not the biggest tournament name. - Favor penalty takers, attackers, and defenders/GKs from strong favorites. - Don’t park budget in stars who only play days later. This is how you win.
The European mind cannot comprehend @hyperbeat fantasy football. So i fed the rules to grok and came up with a refined approach: Core objective: - Points are allocated daily. - Get them, daily. - Ruthlessly dump stars for mid-mfers as required. Strategy: - Dont build your squad for the whole tournament, optimize for each matchday. - A player who doesn’t play today = 0 pts. - A starter who plays 60+ mins gets ~3 base pts. - Extra transfers cost -3 pts. - Replacing a non-playing starter with a reliable 60+ min player is roughly break-even before any upside. - Goals, assists, clean sheets, saves, POTM or scouting bonus are all positive EV. - Use the 2 free transfers every day. - Pay for extra transfers aggressively when they replace zeroes. - Build 11 active starters for the current matchday. - Captain the best daily spot, not the biggest tournament name. - Favor penalty takers, attackers, and defenders/GKs from strong favorites. - Don’t park budget in stars who only play days later. This is how you win.
