Kevin
3.1K posts
Kevin
@DanFlashesFF
came here for #ff, stayed for #finance #tech and investing follows
Entrou em Temmuz 2021
1K Seguindo88 Seguidores
@Triple_Zero000 @kylekuzma He’s probably an investor in Kalshi/Polymarket or some other
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@kylekuzma Kuz, an active NBA player, with more knowledge and awareness than 95% of braindead people in the industry. Only thing I’d caution against is potential for market makers to only provide liquidity on exchanges based on trader profiles (not here yet but framework is set).
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Love Matt but…DK’s own hold on parlays runs like 25-40%. They limit or ban anyone who shows skill (which literally is the best part of prediction markets) then funnel casuals into boosted props engineered to lose. Wall Street market makers are tough ofc but at least they don’t kick you off the platform for winning.
Kai@kai_xbt
DraftKings co-founder says 97% of normal Kalshi users get decimated and only Wall Street wins "97% of people, the normal people who are responding to their marketing, pull up and think I see the number on the site, I click bet and I get the bet that you're saying. These are the people getting decimated by market makers. Wall Street. Susquehanna. The big Wall Street trading firms. Professionals putting millions of dollars in using APIs and algorithms to milk them as fast as possible." "I'm not saying these things shouldn't exist. What I'm saying is you can't market things one way like oh this is some nice site where Main Street has an advantage over Wall Street. Like Tarek posted. Every single person who's the 99% of normal users are getting their ass handed to them and losing at a 90% plus rate."
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@Kicky80 @GangSignJohn @MarinoMLB @AndrewLiv Super good point. Here’s LRJ’s slash line going back to 2023. To be fair, This image doesn’t consider that he’s also got a terrible arm. Since I’m clueless though why don’t you explain why none of this matters and that LRJ wouldve actually solved our problems
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I was as big of a David Stearns supporter and fan as you could find. The lineup he has assembled is genuinely one of the worst I can remember in Mets history. The team had a MLB last 0.650 OPS entering today’s matchup. He deserves 1 more year…but serious questions emerging.
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@GangSignJohn @MarinoMLB @AndrewLiv The lindor and Soto injuries have hurt the team, but let’s not pretend like Luis Robert and Jorge Polanco are huge losses. Polanco has had one good year and Luis Robert was legit bad for the last two years. He’d be blocking Ewing anyway. The Team stinks
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@MarinoMLB @AndrewLiv I think it’s disingenuous to call it the lineup he assembled when 4 of the top 5 opening day guys didn’t play today
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@Pena_Is_King26 @HoffWFAN Luis Robert Jr cost us nothing to acquire for a reason. He’s coming off consecutive sub-.700 OPS seasons. If he were here he’d be blocking Benge and Ewing. Believing in Alvarez baty and Vientos is part of what got us here, move on from all of them please
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@HoffWFAN Even if you don’t wanna include them which is stupid but I’ll play along. This lineup is missing Lindor Soto and Alvarez. What do you expect the lineup to look like? That’s your two best hitters out and Alvarez who was hitting
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It's Memorial day weekend. This is the Mets 4-9 in today's lineup.
This is not a small sample size. These players are getting consistent at bats
This is a 22-30 team with the highest payroll in the league at $334.6 Million
This is gross
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Kevin retweetou
@cubsncards @DarrigoMelanie @MollyJongFast Betting on how many shot attempts SGA takes tonight is not a financial instrument. It’s gambling, and probably should be subjected to the same regulation that governs sportsbooks and casinos.
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@DarrigoMelanie @MollyJongFast It’s also what defending capitalism and freedom looks like.
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Donald Trump Jr is a paid strategic advisor for Kalshi, and a major investor and advisor for Polymarket.
The Trump administration is using taxpayer money to sue to protect their family’s investments.
This is what corruption looks like.
ABC News@ABC
The federal government is suing Minnesota after state legislators passed a bill that would ban prediction market companies from operating in the state. abcnews.link/jQC2C8V
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@adamlevitan you gotta get Kalish on ETR. Also @mattkalish have you noticed your last name is just “kalshi” with the letters rearranged? How do we know you’re not a plant meant to drum up publicity for them? No such thing as bad PR
Matt Kalish@mattkalish
Kalshi almost never has the best odds, and this is before factoring in that sportsbook rewards are 30-40% back to customer where Kalshi likes to keep that all for their platform and deposit fees and Wall Street friends’ profits. Once again Kalshi fake as fuck with their odds PR
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If you want to know why I keep crushing the Mets when something goes bad...
It's because the team put together is supposed to be defensively improved.
See the play below for a perfect example:
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@mattkalish @billsperos Now that they’re valued at $22Bn though, couldn’t kalshi hire all the best developers and build a better product pretty quick? I’m a DK bag holder bc I love the DFS and bestball products so that’s where my money is, but, just wondering
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First mover in first couple months, where ppl are confused and normal ppl just losing at 97% rate not at all durable lead. Geo arbitrage thing like TX is legit nice but DK, FD, Fanatics etc all have massively better consumer prod development teams and operations and building. Everyone on bad temp products now but will develop consumer biz way faster. Big thing is culture, anyone normal who talks to Kalshi ppl instantly just sees Wall Street ppl trying to farm you no instinct on customer experience
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Do you have any fucking clue how much money Kalshi need normal long-term unprofitable retail gamblers like me to lose on Kalshi to PAY them enough fees to be worth $22bil valuation? Then on top, how fucking much money all of Wall Street’s MMs & Pro Gamblers export? And do it with a very bad product compared to SB on casual experience? What an absolute fucking house of cards my brothers and sisters.
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@mattkalish Thoughts on the trump admin literally rigging things to keep PM’s relevant?
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Everyone everywhere needs to chill the fuck out. The products or experiences that finally gets anywhere close to a reasonable sports betting experience will be developed over time. For now let’s just keep it a buck, the only people who are hyping these are those making money from it TODAY or scared they made a dumb investment and rationalizing.
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Idk what people are smoking, there’s not a single exchange product experience for normal people that is remotely close to the delivering the caliber of experience that regulated sportsbooks do. They are 2-3 years of development away (before regulatory touches the product at all)
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@mattkalish Yelling at people on twitter is page 1 of the kalshi employee playbook. you don’t need to say all this, don’t be like them
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Fernando Mendoza and Kirk Cousins performing the same drill at practice. What do you notice?
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