Triple0

DraftKings co-founder says 97% of normal Kalshi users get decimated and only Wall Street wins "97% of people, the normal people who are responding to their marketing, pull up and think I see the number on the site, I click bet and I get the bet that you're saying. These are the people getting decimated by market makers. Wall Street. Susquehanna. The big Wall Street trading firms. Professionals putting millions of dollars in using APIs and algorithms to milk them as fast as possible." "I'm not saying these things shouldn't exist. What I'm saying is you can't market things one way like oh this is some nice site where Main Street has an advantage over Wall Street. Like Tarek posted. Every single person who's the 99% of normal users are getting their ass handed to them and losing at a 90% plus rate."

On Aliens, Survivor, and The Bachelorette (so far). TL;DR: Just because someone has a large position in a market or traders follow rumors online does not mean they’re insider trading. Aliens, Survivor, and Bachelorette markets - we’re investigating all of them, and so far, we have not found compelling evidence of insider trading or market manipulation. However, these markets are not closed, and our monitoring and analysis continues. Aliens A few weeks ago The Atlantic posted an article titled "This Looks Like an Insider Bet on Aliens." The story focused on trades by a user who is wagering that by the end of the year, the U.S. government will confirm aliens exist. According to The Atlantic, due to the size of the trades it might be someone with "insider knowledge." But we investigated this position, including document requests and an interview with the trader. (He gave us permission to make this post). There is no evidence the trader has insider information. He's tired of trading stocks; he doesn't feel they are accurately priced. While looking for markets he felt he had an edge on, he found Kalshi's alien market. He developed a researched thesis for why the U.S. government might be on the verge of confirming alien existence (including recent document releases, new comments by President Obama, President Trump's response to those comments, etc.) and felt the position was underpriced. He doesn’t know whether the government will confirm anything or not, but based on public information and research, he considers his position a good one. Survivor and The Bachelorette Pre-taped shows mean that people have knowledge of what happens before the show airs - including contestants and production staff. But they typically sign legal documents preventing them from telling people - otherwise, shows would constantly be spoiled for everybody. Using that information for profit is not allowed. This week there was a New York Times article titled “People Are Making Money Betting on Pretaped ‘Survivor’ Episodes” that suggested insider trading is happening with our Survivor markets. We’ve investigated and, so far, have not found definitive evidence of that. We’ve been checking backgrounds of traders in this market and have not identified anyone with any connection to Survivor. After reviewing the trading activity, it appears the likeliest explanation is that traders are following public rumors, following other traders who placed trades in the opening hours of the market, or just trading based on research and conviction. Same scenario for The Bachelorette, and same conclusion thus far. It seems that Reality Steve’s site posts spoilers that tend to be right. People can look at those predictions, then place trades on prediction markets. That’s not insider trading. Still, we are continuing to monitor these markets and analyze trading patterns, and we will take action if we find anything anomalous.

Millennial moms & dads are spending more time with their kids ...and it's probably a bad thing

I am honestly a little nervous. This is going to be a time-intensive, willpower-intensive, and very constrictive. But I am mostly SO excited and very hopeful that we will uncover really rudimentary and yet powerful insights that will be practical for women. I previously did Bryan's protocol intensely for 90 days (based on population-level data for males and females) and saw amazing results for improving my health generally This is next-level We're doing female-specific measurement... we're measuring biomarkers across all forms (i.e. urine, stool, blood, vaginal microbiome, etc) throughout my cycle, across months, to get a baseline... and then tracking how interventions impact Each cycle will be measured throughout, across follicular, ovulation, luteal, and menstruation. For example, in females, total cholesterol can swing ~19% across a single cycle.... what else changes throughout the cycle? How does this impact everything else?

When your parents die you will, if you're lucky, be an adult with a home full of your own possessions and all of a sudden you have to fairly swiftly deal with your parents home and all of their possessions and you absolutely cannot cram all of the latter into the former.

Absolutely brutal use of a Bonus Bet.

NEW: When you make a parlay bet on a prediction market, FanDuel might be your counterparty. Flutter, the parent-company of FanDuel, announced in its Q1 earnings report today that "in April, we began trialing market-making services on a major, third-party prediction market platform.” FanDuel has its own prediction market platform, FanDuel Predicts, which $FLUT CEO Peter Jackson tells me is mainly for onboarding new bettors in states yet to legalize traditional sports betting. “I want to do both,” Jackson says. “I want to make money through market-making and I want to acquire customers.” The prediction market market-making Flutter is doing is mainly in prediction market parlay or "combo" bets, Jackson says. Prediction markets say they differ from sports betting operators because they aren't the house. But now they may be pitting you against the house of Flutter.