Aaron Caldwell

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Aaron Caldwell

Aaron Caldwell

@ExPhysStudent

Stats guy that has practicing safe science since 2017. PhD but always a student. #Rstats #OpenScience

Arkansas Entrou em Ekim 2011
1.5K Seguindo1.6K Seguidores
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Aaron Caldwell
Aaron Caldwell@ExPhysStudent·
🚨New SimplyAgree (early) release🚨 Proud to announce that SimplyAgree v0.2.0 is now available on GitHub and feedback is welcome/wanted. A few details below 🧵 aaroncaldwell.us/SimplyAgree/ #Rstats
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John Arnold
John Arnold@johnarnold·
"How to Lower Electricity Bills to $100 a Month" The biggest impact is equalizing industrial and residential rates which currently reflect cost to serve but don't have to. I don't endorse all of these ideas but it's a serious proposal worth considering. …derbiltpolicyaccelerator.substack.com/p/a-simple-way…
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Jeremiah Johnson 🌐
Jeremiah Johnson 🌐@JeremiahDJohns·
So they are trying to blacklist Anthropic for having red lines, then agreed to the exact same red lines with OpenAI. It's an entire administration of tryhard cosplay dorks, obsessed with the appearance of toughness, stumbling through it like drunk toddlers.
Axios@axios

NEW: The Pentagon has agreed to OpenAI's rules for deploying its technology safely in classified settings, though no contract has been signed, a source tells Axios. The department appears to have accepted conditions similar to those put forth by Anthropic. axios.com/2026/02/27/pen…

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Aaron Caldwell
Aaron Caldwell@ExPhysStudent·
@VickersBiostats I feel a rebellion against RE meta coming soon. This advice, as you indicate, seems to be applied thoughtlessly
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Andrew Vickers
Andrew Vickers@VickersBiostats·
COULD EVERYONE PLEASE STOP USING RANDOM EFFECTS META-ANALYSIS WHEN COMBINING 3 OR 4 TRIALS? AND COULD REVIEWERS STOP DEMANDING IT?
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John B. Holbein
John B. Holbein@JohnHolbein1·
Retaining 3rd graders because of their low test scores reduces their incomes 20 years later by 19%.
John B. Holbein tweet mediaJohn B. Holbein tweet media
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Aaron Caldwell
Aaron Caldwell@ExPhysStudent·
@f2harrell @datavisFriendly Agreed. I’ve seen similar talk around the “diagnosis” of gestational diabetes. Talked to a few physicians that think problematic cases are missed because patients don’t meet the binary classification on 3 separate tests.
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Scott Greenfield
Scott Greenfield@ScottGreenfield·
I learned all this really secret awful stuff that shows the hoaxes and conspiracies really happened, but I can't tell you because it's secret and can't do anything about it because I quit because going to work every day is really hard.
Sean Hannity 🇺🇸@seanhannity

.@dbongino says details he uncovered at the FBI of the Russia collusion hoax are shocking, warning the abuse of power against President Trump shows a total systematic breakdown: “I was reading through some stuff that you could only read in the office, and it basically involved the collusion hoax, Crossfire Hurricane as it went by, and the various other spinoffs. And when you read it from the inside, when you see the details of what these absolute animals did to President Trump—I mean, I’m not shocked often, Sean—just reading through it and seeing it in detail for the first time, all put together. You can’t run a republic like this. You can’t—you absolutely cannot. It’s just stunning how all these guardrails broke down at the exact same time. It’s frightening how nobody thought to speak up and say, ‘Hey man, not only is this wrong, this is demonic—this is evil stuff.’”

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Wilson F. Ball
Wilson F. Ball@WillyFoosball·
Someone made a 2025 College Football season montage to One Shining Moment and it’s amazing 😭
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Aaron Caldwell
Aaron Caldwell@ExPhysStudent·
@bendreyfuss @notjessewalker Man, this guy would be shocked to see all the professional grade logistics I saw from dads and moms in sweat pants at my local Walmart before the snow storm!
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Ben Dreyfuss
Ben Dreyfuss@bendreyfuss·
@notjessewalker “This is professional grade logistics” a box of hand warmers, some saltines and a few quarts of milk? Lol
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🐝 Carol Walsh ^Monterey Bay^
🐝 Carol Walsh ^Monterey Bay^@CarolWalshReal1·
Why is this illegal you might ask? Anti-massing design guidelines. Guidelines against using one material. If you want to see these in your city, please advocate for stripping the overwrought design guidelines, AND as many other BS regulations as possible, so that builders can spend money on actual design and quality materials! You do that by attending your local city planning meetings. By bugging your elected officials on the local and state level to discard these outdated concepts. Thank you for coming to my TED Talk
YIMBYLAND@YIMBYLAND

It doesn’t get much better than this. It’s a real shame that it’s illegal to build like this on 90% of land in this country.

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John Arnold
John Arnold@johnarnold·
Motor vehicle theft is the easiest property crime to address through tech and yet it's the one that we've gone backwards on over the past 15 years. The tools exist today to essentially end car theft if adopted: PIN to drive, remote disable, GPS tracking, cameras, encrypted keys.
John Arnold tweet media
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Steven Pinker
Steven Pinker@sapinker·
I resigned from the board of advisors of the University of Austin (UATX, not to be confused w U T Austin) within weeks of their inaugural announcement, because they "had no coherent vision of what higher education in the 21st century ought to be. Instead, they created UnWoke U led by a Faculty of the Canceled." Also: science was an afterthought. And they were so knee-jerk anti-woke that they were unprepared for the genuine issues that led to woke overreach, like sexual harassment. Four years later, my worst fears came true. Expose in Politico: They Wanted a University Without Cancel Culture. Then Dissenters Were Ousted. politi.co/49ELxlM via @politico
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Aaron Caldwell
Aaron Caldwell@ExPhysStudent·
@S_Surprenant Huh, I remember reading a book by Milankovic years ago, and thought it was decent. Should I have been a bit for skeptical of his work?
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Stéphane Surprenant
Stéphane Surprenant@S_Surprenant·
Read the names again. Piketty, Milankovic? Come on, man. Has any of them fit any model to data, whether statistical or theoretical, to justify their bold forecast? Did they cite others who did so? You can't blame the field over economists who stopped doing economics.
Sandy Petersen 🪔@SandyofCthulhu

100 economists signed a letter about how Javier Milei’s election would destroy Argentina’s finances. This should completely discredit all modern economics.

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Andrew Bacher-Hicks
Andrew Bacher-Hicks@abacherhicks·
🚨New RFP Alert!🚨 @Arnold_Ventures Evidence & Evaluation team released just two new RFPs to support research evaluating the causal impacts of U.S. social programs and policies: bit.ly/4aXA43k A short 🧵on what we're prioritizing and what's new this cycle (1/n)
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Adam Ozimek
Adam Ozimek@ModeledBehavior·
I understand why a politician has to frame it like this, but scapegoating billionaires for a problem that is in many ways bottom-up cultural issue is actually itself part of the rage economy.
Team Talarico@TeamTalaricoHQ

.@ezraklein: “What is, to you, the ‘rage economy’?” @JamesTalarico: “The billionaires own the algorithms and the news networks. They have created for-profit platforms that divide us on an hourly basis — by party, by race, by gender, by religion. They elevate the most extreme voices very strategically to provoke our outrage, because that leads to more clicks, which leads to more money for them. They are selling us conflict right into our bloodstream, and they’re calling it connection. And I think it’s left people starving for actual community.”

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Aaron Caldwell
Aaron Caldwell@ExPhysStudent·
@lakens Big time investor, part time clown here in the good ole USA. By all accounts he used to be a reasonable and successful guy but experienced what I like to call Internet Brain Melt post-2020. nymag.com/intelligencer/…
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Daniël Lakens
Daniël Lakens@lakens·
I don't know who Bill Ackman is, but if he had been more famous this would have been a great teaching example for my metascience course on how people are fooled by confirmation bias. He wants this to be true so much, he has convinced himself it must be so.
Bill Ackman@BillAckman

For those interested in the @francescagino @HarvardHBS case, please read this transcript. It explains in great detail the sources/causes of the data anomalies in her papers that were the basis for Harvard taking away her tenure. Those that have been convinced that Francesca is guilty of academic fraud generally focus all of their attention on the @DataColada analysis. While Data Colada deserves credit for identifying the data anomalies, it did not provide any proof or evidence as to the source of the anomalies, whether they came from Gino, her research associates or otherwise. This transcript will open your eyes to the truth. Please give it a careful read. Thank you. theginocase.info/wp-content/upl…

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Aaron Caldwell
Aaron Caldwell@ExPhysStudent·
@benryanwriter @DrMJoyner Two things: almost no one in the field calls themselves a kinesiologist (big red flag), and I’ve been working around exercise science for the past decade and never heard of this person.
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Benjamin Ryan
Benjamin Ryan@benryanwriter·
"There Is a Vast Over-Inflation of What Testosterone Does": a Kinesiologist Casts Doubt on Sex-Based Athletic Differences benryan.substack.com/publish/post/1… I spoke with the authors of a new book calling for radical inclusiveness for trans youth in sports, in advance of the Supreme Court's oral arguments this month on state restrictions on such inclusion. The book casts doubt on the power of testosterone on determining competitiveness in sports. It insists that sex is not binary. And it goes so far as to suggest that there shouldn’t even be sex segregation in sports at all.
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