Huge Innings

@MCMLXXIII_AU @PollBludger He waited until count finish, poll bludger model was consistently providing accurate projected results. Projecting one nation would win four seats from early in the count.

@PollBludger How long did you wait before this post? At the time nearly all of those seats were 50/50. The so called orange wave was ficntional.

34. My point is that that was exactly what my projection was saying when you dismissed it and pointed to ECSA.

@ThomTommyTomtom @kevinbonham I would be pretty confident LIBs would have won a runoff with ON, purely because greens and labor voters were pretty strongly preferencing LIBs in similar seats. IND voters I suspect would also have favoured LIBs but probably to a much less degree

@kevinbonham Plurality would have handed this seat to the Liberals. A runoff between LIB and ONP can't be calculated from this data, but I'd be fascinated to see who the IND voters preferenced. 4 way contests make a good case for proportional representation.

Hooray I have lived to see it.

@AmberB_C @stationmum101 It's been way too long since the last expansion of the parliament (42 years), even in cities people have half the vote value they did in 1984. While this problem is felt more acutely in large remote electorates, it impacts everyone.

Totally agree. Large electorates can mean less access to MPs, diverse and competing local needs, and harder campaigning. This can leave remote communities feeling overlooked, with the same vote value but unequal representation experience. The electorate of Durack in WA is larger than South Australia.

I don't care what it's called - they need to make it smaller. "The electorate of Grey – which is larger than New South Wales" indailysa.com.au/news/just-in/2…

@MickAtko @greensSA I don't think greens have a chance here, but absents and provisionals do tend to favour greens > labor, also first postal batches are usually more right leaning than later batches.

First batch of LegCo postals counted in Ngadjuri this morning: Labor 125 Greens 16. If this trend continues, the election night gap of Labor 4.5 quotas & Greens 1.3 will widen. The number of voters indicating preferences is small, so micros’ preferences cannot save @greensSA .

@BonkiumMaximus @Maggie_Perry6 If you need an example of it in a larger jurisdiction, Ireland uses a similar system.

@Hugamugarr @Maggie_Perry6 Both small jurisdictions with populations <0.5m My electorate already stretches from NSW to the outskirts of Melbourne... unsure how making that bigger gives me better representation Unsure what exactly PR is fixing... letting smaller parties or independents get elected?

A reminder to right-wingers: The reason the Liberals and One Nation have won very few seats with a combined 40% of the vote is not because of preferential voting, but because we use single-member districts. Be useful and start calling for proportional representation!

@BonkiumMaximus @Maggie_Perry6 It provides more stability to popular MPs and rewards good local representation, members are less likely to be wiped out in wave elections where one party wins 80%+ of seats off 60% of the vote

@BonkiumMaximus @Maggie_Perry6 You can adjust the amount of MPs per electorate based on the size, regional areas could have 1-3 members, while city electorates 5+. It fixes the problem that if you have a divided electorate, more voters are likely to get a local representative they like or at least tolerate

@BonkiumMaximus @Maggie_Perry6 Not all systems of PR would remove links between the electorate and representatives, Hare-Clark (used in Tasmania and ACT) is both proportional and has electorates for local representation - you do need larger electorates to allow for multiple MP but it is way more proportional

@Maggie_Perry6 The Senate provides the proportional representation. Proportional representation in the lower house would remove the link between the electorate and their representative and literally solve no problem Farcical that you call yourself an "election reporter"

@kevinbonham I think Hammond is gonna be close, preference flows to ON in the few seats selected we have, seem to be weaker than the poll bludger projections

kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2026/03/south-… South Australia Postcount 2026: Hammond (and Ngadjuri). Looking highly likely and very likely ON wins respectively which should get them to four. #savotes

@sorceror43 @mumbletwits @kevinbonham ON seem to be doing slightly better on prepolls, very curious to see if that trend holds for postals

With more pre-poll counts, Labor usually doing about the same as on election day, Libs and ON also not much change. ON's statewide primary vote lead over Libs very likely to hold. @mumbletwits @kevinbonham

Two seats (Heysen and Schubert) have counted their pre-polls, and Libs performing much better on these votes than election day votes. If this pattern holds, they could overtake ON statewide.

@shaulamoder @NotTurnbull Port August prepoll has ON and Labor with 39%, 14% with Libs, 4% with Greens, 4% with Families. Labor ends up ahead on 2CP if the flow is anything like that in Light it won't close at all

@shaulamoder @NotTurnbull Wright and Giles, where they correctly picked the final two (Labor vs ONP)

One Nation seats currently projected Any I'm missing?

@rickydbryan @tracksuitpant fully agree, great night for preferencial voting

@Hugamugarr @tracksuitpant Ok but the point is it’s usually not that different eg ALP federal seat count would be similar - the argument is that preference voting means everyone’s vote counts

Pour one out for the preferential voting haters

@shaulamoder @NotTurnbull to get ONP in front on the current numbers the flow would have to be close to even (80% of lib vote, 20% of green vote) this just doesnt seem to be happening in other similar seats

@shaulamoder @NotTurnbull I did a quick estimate with ONP getting 65% of the libs vote (70% of families, 10% of greens, 35% LCA) the labor 2CP would be 52.9%

@shaulamoder @NotTurnbull Just that the liberal preferences aren't flowing anywhere near as strongly as greens to labor

@Hugamugarr @NotTurnbull You think libs will preference Labor over ONP in Light?

@adbunn @newwavenikko @strangerous10 They are favourites right now Hammond, MacKillop, Narungga, Ngadjuri

@newwavenikko @strangerous10 Which seats have you got as ON wins?

Zero seats, yet Pauline Hanson & One Nation are about to pop champagne. Deluded or just happy to be big losers? Either way, really embarrassing for One Nation supporters tonight. #savotes

@rickydbryan @tracksuitpant Currently in 6 seats they are leading on first preferences, they probably win 3-4 of them after preferences but it's hard to tell

@tracksuitpant I don’t think there’s a single seat where ON is currently first past the post

@shaulamoder @NotTurnbull Just checked the preference flow to ONP in Giles and Wright, it's pretty weak. I suspect labor will have no issues holding any of those seats, even Light probably isn't that close

@Hugamugarr @NotTurnbull i reckon it's too much of a gap there prepolls have a bit of a difference but it's not much nothing like what the US has with early vs election day votes

@succintreject1 @IrishPatri0t The actual model and internal interface ABC use is just as quick and accurate (if not more) I suspect they heavily limit what is publicly available to give them a competitive advantage over the other news outlets.

@Hugamugarr @IrishPatri0t Yeah poll bludgers models are ridiculously volatile but they are transparent and usually very accurate very early. ABC is too focused on classifying seats as called or not.

These are the results so far according to ABC for elected (dark) and leading (light) Labour:35 Liberals: 6 One Nation: 2 Independents: 4