I don't really understand why some people taking shots at @davegirouard for not buying $upst on the market every chance they get.
Dave has communicated that his trading window has closed and due to short-swing profit rule, he has to pay back multiple million dollars if he did buy. No one would do that especially he already owns 10% of the business.
The upcoming CEO Paul Gu has bought 100,000 shares on market at $39, the company has purchased $100 million worth of shares on market @$31.3
The management has no control of the stock price. But they are trying their best to run the business. The execution has been brilliant since Q4.
Focus on the business, not the stock.
What do you guys think that $Upst becoming a bank?
I was shocked when I saw the news, as they said numerous time they didn't want to become a bank. Stabilty in funding and less regulatory friction etc. I get it
However, it's not the capital light AI lending company I invested in anymore , it's losing its unique proposition. I would have not invested in a bank with a better underwriting model.
I would like to hear more from the management why they've made the decision. What's changed?
Now how would the market view $upst in the future?
More importantly, for us investors, how would the company be valued going forward?
From my understanding of $upst model is that they use all the variables to make a decision at the end
Yes or no and APR based on the data
The agentic AI and the LLMs in the world are used to help automate processes which make humans free from complicated tasks
It’s fundamentally different, let alone the regulatory side of things, bias, explainability etc
$UPST Repayment history is not sufficient enough to have rich training data. You also need to collect variables against that.
Yesterday, Sanjay gave a few examples. These included the usual - where did the borrower study? where did they work? what was their title?
It also included the unusual - how did the borrower digitally interact with the application? when you ask for their FICO, how close were they to knowing it?
You can try to build Upstart with Agentic AI - but you will, imo, fall far short. Upstart's training data is extremely rich and cannot be found anywhere else.
Want to replicate it? You're going to have to put a lot of money at risk all while Upstart's data & model flywheel is accelerating. They will layer Agentic AI on top of their business which will further reduce any friction within the process and increase operating leverage as they scale.
Uh oh $DUOL longs.
@ChrisCamillo thinks Duolingo will eventually go bankrupt.
Can’t say I disagree.
You know how many times I’ve said it’s Rosetta Stone 2.0.
But not even they competed with AI alternatives in the 90s and 00s.
Chris did emphasize bankruptcy would be no time soon but “writing is on the wall.”
It’s clear that Wall Street does not know how to value $TEM and honestly I don’t blame them.
Most people forget that they operate in a highly regulated field (which is healthcare). They are an AI company with a tech platform but must go through a lot of the strict requirements with FDA testing, HIPAA, reimbursement, ect.
This is a double edged sword. It makes profitability and growth complex but also gives them perhaps one of the strongest MOATs I’ve ever seen.
So why is growth “slowing”? You have to remember that they made two acquisitions last year and they need to integrate them into the platform. Management is likely guiding to the baseline growth of 25% bc it gives them room to beat. They also want to control the growth to balance with profitability and YoY comps. You don’t want to be growing 60%+ one year and only 10% the next. If you grow 25-30% for 5+ years, that shows a lot of strength in the business.
Profitability is also a concern. They could grow faster but are likely waiting on more reimbursement channels to pay for a lot of the testing and diagnostics. You don’t want to burn a lot of cash putting together tests that won’t be paid for.
Overall, this is intelligent capital allocation and setting the right standards for the company in the future.
I feel like in time like today, it's not healthy for you to look at the share price every 5 minutes. Just let the market do what it does, since there's nothing we can do but to trust the business we invested in.
Know what you own, the stock is not the company and the company is not the stock.
$upst #thosewhostay
@HenryInvests It is surprising market doesn't give $upst any love after all these great annoucements.
But I'm just glad they keep delivering , it'll re-rate hard when the market finally wakes up
Anyone trying to masquerade today's $UPST funding news as meaningless or uneventful is either 1) not following the company closely or 2) a price watcher.
This is the best news you could've ever asked for from Upstart. I'm shocked the market is not reacting to this. They effectively just proved they can scale an entirely new product (Auto) from the ground up while moving the initial R&D loans in totality and securing new forward flow agreements.