Henry

My conversation with @Upstart co-founder & incoming CEO Paul Gu @paulxgu, February 23, 2026 $UPST 🏆 (0:00) Introduction (0:26) Co-Founder Experience & CEO Transition (2:14) Upstart's Evolution (5:01) Long-Term Vision & Growth (7:31) Gu's $3.9M Insider Buy (11:16) Model 25 (13:15) 100M Repayment Events (14:31) Upstart Macro Index (UMI) (17:04) Auto & HELOC Margin Potential (20:08) Marketing & Borrower Relationships (23:10) Upstart Capital Partners (25:51) Bank Partner Growth (27:28) Closing Remarks

@FFeJJJJ @Dickson6113 It's really hard to guess. We will know a lot more on take rate after this quarter. I am modeling a 7.9% take rate versus last quarters 8.3%. (rough esimates)

@HenryInvests @Dickson6113 Don’t have to guess too much? Take rates of different loans also varies

We now know that Upstart's $UPST 1Q26 total originations were $3,443M and the first month of 2Q26 was $1,274M. More importantly, originations per day are growing - a sign of efficiency when you smooth out some of the volatility of weekends and holidays. Note that April has one less day than March. Assuming April had the extra day, originations (based on the per day posted) would be $1,322M marking 4.7% MoM growth. The biggest question remains how much of this origination growth will translate to revenue? In other words, how much is Upstart dialing back the take rate to permeate the market. We'll find out tomorrow!

@Dickson6113 8.5% take rate yields $292.6M then you'd have to add in an assumption for NII which they've guided for to be $100M this year.

@HenryInvests Take rate 8.5% also cannot achieve 300m revenue? Then high possibility will miss the guidance ?

@KaySchnd @carl_flow44 Great observations. While Upstart clearly has funding, I wonder if the funding environment right now is still not all that conducive and could be an accelerant on the other sides of fears.

@HenryInvests @carl_flow44 MoM performance in line with last year. +2.3MM (vs +2.2MM in 2025). I can’t see any slowdown here except when looking at total monthly numbers which are screwed because this year it’s ~1 day less MoM (vs flat in2025).

@carl_flow44 No, but possible b/c it's a volatile business. Originations per Day are a good proxy as each month has its own seasonal effects. UMI is 1.42 so Upstart is already pricing in a lot of macro risk with current loans

@HenryInvests 1% MoM growth is a lot slower than the last 2 years. Any reason for this do you think? Is that indicative of an incoming slowdown?

Upstart $UPST April Originations come in at $1,274M, up 51% YoY

UPDATES ON THE IRAN WAR: - U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff says Washington is actively in talks with Iran as negotiations to end the war regain momentum - Iran is reviewing the latest U.S. proposal, but Trump signals it will likely be rejected - Iranian Foreign Ministry says its 14-point plan is strictly focused on ending the war, excluding nuclear issues - Trump, in remarks to Israeli media, calls Iran’s proposal “unacceptable” - Iranian leadership signals negotiations are no longer about compromise, but about the U.S. agreeing to Iran’s demands The good takeaway is, both sides continue to be talking. Maybe they aren't easily coming to an agreement, but there are talks and the more that there is diplomacy over attacks the better.

@Barchart How patronizing

Retail Investors don't understand private credit and cannot just withdraw all their money whenever they want says Citadel Founder Ken Griffin 🚨🚨

@paulxgu will upstart be posting April origination data today? It’s been the 3rd around 7am CST but today also a Sunday. Thx!

@StonkChris True

Not trying to drop some cliché weekend motivation, but this is real: Your environment and who you give your time and energy to will dictate your ceiling. If you surround yourself with people going nowhere, you’ll end up in the same place. If you’re around people obsessed with looking rich instead of actually building wealth, you’ll get pulled into the same loop of debt, bad decisions, and living paycheck to paycheck. If you’re around negative, energy-draining people instead of people focused on growth and lifting others up, you’re going to feel it, and over time, you’ll become it. You have to be intentional, borderline ruthless, about your circle and how you spend your time. I’ve lived it. The moment I removed myself from toxic environments, both personally and professionally, everything changed.

Join me this Tuesday, May 5, at market close as I cover @Upstart’s $UPST Q1 2026 Earnings Results 🦾 ⚡️ twitter.com/i/spaces/1RKZz…

$RDDT free cash flow

@paulxgu As long as no plates get broken, we're good.

the next big thing is so boring that most people are missing it (and will have regret in the future about it). it is too obvious and boring. maybe people look at the stock chart and think they missed it? it's memory $MU $DRAM

Watch below as @davegirouard and @AnnBerry_NYC at @brewmarkets talk about the CEO transition with @paulxgu stepping into the CEO seat and all things Upstart. youtube.com/watch?v=R8nG0m…

@x0cade @negligible_cap A+

@HenryInvests @negligible_cap

*GAMESTOP PREPARING OFFER FOR EBAY: WSJ Ryan Cohen has been building an undisclosed stake in $EBAY and is preparing an offer as soon as this month. Wow - EBAY has almost a $50B market cap. Massive acquisition for $GME

Better to hand wash the minority that don’t come out clean after than pay 100% hand washing cost upfront!

$UPST enters a new leadership era. We spoke with co-founder, former CEO, and newly minted Executive Chair Dave Girouard on what’s behind the move -- and what comes next as Paul Gu steps into the driver’s seat. ft. @AnnBerry_NYC

Upstart $UPST April Trustpilot #UTPI reviews hit 1,124, up 62.7% YoY (flat MoM, would be +4.2% MoM but April has 1 less day than March). April's Trustpilot Reviews per Day hit 37.5, up 63% YoY and reaching a new all-time high. April's 2026 review activity very closely mirrors what was observed in 2025. All of this comes in light of March UMI reading of 1.42, up 4.4% MoM. When UMI rises, Upstart's credit box tightens = less approvals & conversions. We should be receiving April origination data this Sunday (May 3), which will give us more insight into 2Q26 prior to ER. Upstart reports earnings this Tuesday, May 5, where Paul Gu will take questions on his first ever conference call as CEO.