LouisTang
154 posts
This is the most SHAMELESS structural manipulation of a major index I've ever seen.
SpaceX is preparing what could be the largest IPO in history.
Target valuation: $1.75 trillion.
That would make it the sixth-largest company in America on day one.
And Nasdaq wants the listing so badly they're literally CHANGING how the Nasdaq-100 works.
In February, Nasdaq published a "consultation" proposing sweeping changes to how companies enter the index. The timing is pure coincidence, of course.
Just like it's pure coincidence that SpaceX has reportedly made fast index inclusion a CONDITION of listing on Nasdaq.
Here's what they're proposing:
A new "Fast Entry" rule would let any newly listed company whose market cap ranks in the top 40 of current Nasdaq-100 members get added to the index after just 15 trading days.
No seasoning period. No liquidity requirements. Completely exempt from the standards every other company had to meet.
Currently, new public companies typically wait up to a year before they're eligible for major index inclusion.
That waiting period exists for a reason. It lets the market establish real price discovery. It protects passive investors from being forced into untested, illiquid stocks.
And Nasdaq wants to throw all of that out. For ONE listing.
But the Fast Entry rule isn't even the worst part...
The real scandal is the 5x float multiplier.
Right now, the S&P 500 uses a free-float adjusted methodology. If only 5% of a company's shares are available for public trading, the index weights you at 5% of total market cap.
That's common sense. You weight a company based on what investors can actually buy.
Nasdaq's current methodology already uses total market cap rather than free-float for weighting. But for very low-float stocks, they at least had a 10% minimum float threshold.
Under the new proposal, that threshold DISAPPEARS entirely.
Instead, any stock with less than 20% free float gets weighted at FIVE TIMES its actual float percentage, capped at 100%.
Do the math on SpaceX:
If SpaceX IPOs at $1.75 trillion and floats 5% of its shares, there would be roughly $87.5 billion worth of stock available for public trading.
Under Nasdaq's proposed 5x multiplier, the index would weight SpaceX at 25% of its total market cap. That means passive funds would be forced to buy as if SpaceX were a $437.5 billion company.
But only $87.5 billion of stock actually exists in the market.
You are forcing hundreds of billions in passive buying into a $87.5 billion float.
QQQ alone manages nearly $400 billion. The total Nasdaq-100 ecosystem represents over $1.4 trillion in exposure across ETFs, mutual funds, structured notes, and derivatives.
Every single passive vehicle tracking this index would be REQUIRED to buy SpaceX at whatever price the market dictates.
On Day 15.
With zero price discovery. Zero track record as a public company. And a float so thin you could read through it.
So what this actually does is it creates a structural wealth transfer mechanism.
The passive bid from index funds pushes the stock price higher. That higher price benefits exactly one group of people: the insiders and early investors who own the other 95% of the shares.
And when lock-up periods expire 90 to 180 days later? Those insiders sell into the artificially inflated passive bid. Your 401(k) is the exit liquidity.
This is the fundamental corruption of indexing.
Indexing used to be brilliant. Low cost. Efficient. You were free-riding on the price discovery done by active managers. The index reflected the market.
Now the index IS the market. Trillions of dollars flow blindly into whatever the index tells them to buy. And the people who control the index methodology are changing the rules to serve the interests of a single IPO candidate.
The S&P 500 requires companies to have at least 50% of shares available for public trading. It requires 6 to 12 months of seasoning. It uses free-float adjusted weighting so passive investors aren't buying phantom liquidity.
Nasdaq is doing the exact opposite. 15 days. No float requirement. 5x multiplier on insider-held shares.
Every passive investor in QQQ, QQQM, and every fund benchmarked to the Nasdaq-100 should understand what's about to happen:
The rules are being rewritten to benefit IPO issuers and early-stage insiders, and your capital is the tool being USED to enrich them.
45 years in this business and I've watched Wall Street find creative new ways to separate retail investors from their money in every cycle. But usually they at least try to be subtle about it.
This one they put in a PDF and called it a "consultation."
What's your take?
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LouisTang retweetou
SpaceX to be valued at $1.75T ahead of June IPO (3M from now).
Having a weird feeling all your space stocks from $RKLB to $ASTS are going to be parabolic around the time of IPO day.
Especially when everyone see SpaceX's next biggest competitor in Rocketlab valued at 2.3% of SpaceX's valuation.
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Traders are piling into bearish put options on Invesco Senior Loan ETF (BKLN), which tracks bank loans and has 18% exposure to software companies like McAfee and Proofpoint. Over 400k April/July $20 puts bought recently—highest volume since 2023—as the ETF fell 1% to $20.44 amid nearly $1B outflows. The chart shows price sliding toward April 2025 lows near the $20 strike, reflecting worries that AI risks could derail any software sector rebound.
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TRADERS BET BIG AGAINST SOFTWARE-EXPOSED LOAN ETF
Options traders are piling into bearish bets on the Invesco Senior Loan ETF (BKLN), which has 18% exposure to software firms like McAfee and Proofpoint. Over three weeks, more than 400,000 put contracts were bought, the highest since 2023.
Monday saw 30,000 April $20 puts and 50,000 mid-July puts purchased, with the fund down 1% to $20.44. Outflows over four weeks total nearly $1B. Investors are abandoning software rebound bets, signaling growing concern over AI-related risks in the sector.
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Today we announced our new Fairwater datacenter in Atlanta, connected with our first Fairwater site in Wisconsin and our broader Azure footprint to create the world’s first AI superfactory.
Fairwater exemplifies our vision for a fungible fleet: infra that can serve any workload, anywhere, on fit-for-purpose accelerators and network paths, with maximum performance and efficiency.
AI workloads have evolved beyond large-scale pre-training. Today, they encompass fine-tuning, reinforcement learning (RL), synthetic data generation, evaluation pipelines, and more. Fairwater is built to support this full lifecycle:
Max density: Fairwater’s two-story design and liquid cooling system lets us place racks in three dimensions and pack them with GPUs as densely as possible, minimizing cable runs and improving latency and effective bandwidth.
Fleet: Each Fairwater DC can integrate hundreds of thousands of the latest NVIDIA GPUs into a single coherent cluster. This provides flexible infra that can support the full spectrum of workloads, and ensure no GPU is left unnecessarily idle.
And that’s on top of the more than 100,000 GB300s coming online this quarter alone for inference across the rest of our fleet. For us, it’s all about turning every gigawatt into the maximum number of useful tokens. Not every GW is created equal!
Planet-scale: Every Fairwater DC will connect through our continent-spanning AI WAN to prior generations of AI supercomputers, forming a truly fungible pool of compute. This enables developers to scale beyond the capacity of a single site and dynamically land workloads on the right infra for their needs.
Together, these innovations let us bring together different generations of silicon and AI systems across DCs and geos into a single elastic system that scales seamlessly across training and inference workloads
And this elastic AI capacity is all available alongside all the other cloud services (compute, storage, databases, app services) that AI agents and workloads need.
This is what we mean when we talk about building a fungible fleet – a single, unified platform that pushes the limits of performance per watt and per dollar.
Read more: blogs.microsoft.com/blog/2025/11/1…
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@svmovingfwd This is unimaginable madness to go through, sorry for you man
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Just fired an email to all 500+ subscribers.
lumefi.beehiiv.com/p/lume-our-x-a…
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@SayNoToTrading have anyone said to you that you look like Jon Bernthal?
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I don't know when it will be, but I believe we will look back at the tariff crash as we did the Covid crash - something rapid, severe, and short-lived.
It may even be a quicker recovery than Covid, as there were rolling bottoms for many sectors during that time. Here, *almost everything is crashing at once. Both safe havens and speculative.
*There are a few holdouts right now, like P&C insurance. But for most part, everything is crashing. Even munis are having their worst day in 31 years, so we took out the GFC record on that.
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trying to explain O(n log n) and wsb removes post because it thinks its a stock ticker 😂
Martin Shkreli@MartinShkreli
i wrote up my quantum bear thesis on r/WSB, check it out
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Should $IONQ CEO Niccolo de Masi be investigated based off his comments on an X spaces podcast presenting exclusively to a retail audience.
Audio and transcript below.
@SECPaulSAtkins
@SECGov
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The @xAI MACROHARD project will be profoundly impactful at an immense scale 😉
Our goal is to create a company that can do anything short of manufacturing physical objects directly, but will be able to do so indirectly, much like Apple has other companies manufacture their phones.
DogeDesigner@cb_doge
Elon Musk is literally painting MACROHARD on the roof of the Colossus II supercomputer cluster in Memphis. Here’s what it’s going to look like:
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🟢 GEFORCE DAY IS BACK 🟢
To celebrate, we're giving away TWO GeForce RTX 5080 Founders Edition GPUs, signed by NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang.
Want one? Comment "GeForce Day" for a chance to WIN & stay tuned for more!
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@MartinShkreli it's so painful listening to the other guy talking, such an ignorant idiot by pretending to know stuff, this is the worst kind of sales people that tries to bombard you with lots of big fancy words that he has no clue about.
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Starship launch attempt in ~10 minutes
x.com/i/broadcasts/1…
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Is it just me or I felt #Earthquake in #Beijing just now !!!!!
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