Monaco Macro

@stats_feed @grok Canada needs a visa for the us ?

🇺🇸 US Visa rejection rate in 2025: 🇲🇨 Monaco - 0% 🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates - 2.17% 🇯🇵 Japan - 5.68% 🇨🇭 Switzerland - 5.82% 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia - 5.98% 🇦🇷 Argentina - 7.47% 🇲🇾 Malaysia - 7.92% 🇫🇷 France - 9.67% 🇮🇱 Israel - 11.32% 🇵🇱 Poland - 11.63% 🇿🇦 South Africa - 11.66% 🇩🇪 Germany - 12.22% 🇮🇹 Italy - 12.65% 🇨🇱 Chile - 16.38% 🇫🇮 Finland - 18.09% 🇨🇳 China - 20.21% 🇬🇧 United Kingdom - 20.44% 🇵🇪 Peru - 20.90% 🇲🇽 Mexico - 21.36% 🇸🇪 Sweden - 21.77% 🇮🇳 India - 22.04% 🇻🇳 Vietnam - 22.08% 🇹🇷 Turkey - 22.25% 🇪🇸 Spain - 23.67% 🇰🇷 South Korea - 24.73% 🇹🇭 Thailand - 25.67% 🇮🇩 Indonesia - 26.69% 🇲🇦 Morocco - 26.91% 🇵🇭 Philippines - 30.76% 🇰🇵 North Korea - 33.33% 🇺🇦 Ukraine - 33.92% 🇹🇿 Tanzania - 39.41% 🇷🇺 Russia - 40.38% 🇪🇬 Egypt - 47.61% 🇻🇪 Venezuela - 48.22% 🇩🇿 Algeria - 51.23% 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan - 51.75% 🇵🇰 Pakistan - 52.32% 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan - 52.46% 🇨🇦 Canada - 53.10% 🇳🇬 Nigeria - 57.00% 🇮🇷 Iran - 62.44% 🇦🇫 Afghanistan - 63.25% 🇲🇲 Myanmar - 64.19% 🇬🇭 Ghana - 64.34% 🇾🇪 Yemen - 67.98% 🇰🇪 Kenya - 68.23% 🇳🇵 Nepal - 69.47% 🇧🇩 Bangladesh - 61.45% 🇫🇲 Micronesia - 100% Note: business (visa category B-1), for tourism (visa category B-2), or for a combination of both purposes (B-1/B-2).

1/ The deeper signal from Anthropic is not the model drama. It is the power shift underneath it. Frontier AI is starting to move from a software market into a national-security market. And when that happens, the question changes. It is no longer just: Who has the best model? It becomes: Who controls the rails around the model? 2/ That is the part worth watching. Anthropic is one of the few companies operating near the frontier. Its models are no longer just products. They are becoming strategic assets. That means the normal startup playbook may not apply anymore. Build. Launch. Raise. Scale. IPO. That path gets harder when the government starts treating your product like sensitive infrastructure. 3/ In a normal software market, performance wins. Better product. Better pricing. Better distribution. Better brand. But in a national-security market, something else matters just as much: Trust. Who can host the model securely? Who can verify users? Who can enforce access rules? Who can satisfy regulators? Who can work with government without creating chaos? 4/ This is where Amazon becomes important. Amazon does not need to be the headline. It does not need to be the lab with the flashiest model. It may become more important for a quieter reason: Amazon controls many of the layers that matter once AI becomes regulated infrastructure. 5/ Amazon is not a random player here. It is Anthropic’s investor. It is a cloud partner. It is an infrastructure provider. It is a distribution channel. It is one of the main paths between Anthropic and enterprise customers. That makes Amazon’s position strategically important. Not loud. But important. 6/ If frontier AI becomes more controlled, the model alone is not enough. The model needs a wrapper. Cloud infrastructure. Security. Compliance. Identity systems. Access controls. Audit logs. Government relationships. Enterprise distribution. That wrapper may become the real control point. 7/ This is the deeper signal. The company that builds the model may not be the only company with leverage. The company that makes the model usable, compliant, trusted, and distributable at scale may end up with enormous power. That is not a conspiracy theory. That is how regulated markets work. 8/ In regulated markets, power often sits in the rails. Payments. Energy. Telecom. Defense. Cloud. Now maybe AI. The winning position is not always “best product.” Sometimes it is: The company everyone needs in order to operate legally, safely, and at scale. 9/ That is the lens for Anthropic and Amazon. Not ownership. Dependency. Compute dependency. Distribution dependency. Compliance dependency. Government-trust dependency. Each one looks reasonable on its own. Together, they can become a power structure. 10/ And this is why the story matters beyond one model-access controversy. If frontier AI keeps moving toward national-security oversight, standalone AI labs will need more than talent and GPUs. They will need political cover. They will need compliant infrastructure. They will need trusted deployment channels. They will need partners government and enterprise customers already understand. 11/ That is Amazon’s opening. Amazon does not need to be the loudest AI brand. It does not need to win every benchmark. It does not need to look like the main character. It can play a different role: The infrastructure layer that makes frontier AI usable inside the real world. 12/ As AI gets more powerful, the bottleneck may not only be intelligence. It may be permission. Who can use the model? Where can it be deployed? Who monitors it? Who handles compliance? Who does government trust? That is why Amazon’s role matters. 13/ The deeper signal from Anthropic is this: Frontier AI is becoming infrastructure. And infrastructure markets do not reward only the smartest builder. They reward the company that controls the rails. That is why Amazon’s role is worth watching

There is a 61% chance that Claude Fable 5 is restored for US customers by June 22, per Polymarket:

@pmarca What bad things happened during the bust? My landscaper lost 20 million that he made 3 months earlier trading call options on E*Trade?

@TheProfInvestor A bull market is just one almost-top after another.

$SNDK IS ELON MUSK OF THE STOCK MARKET 🤯 Outperforming others is not a strong enough word. 500% YTD gap between #1 and #2

@michaeljburry @StanphylCap A bull market is just one almost-top after another.

It has been ridiculous for a very very long time.

@Polymarket A bull market is just one almost-top after another.

NEW: Australia’s richest person, Gina Rinehart, has reportedly taken a $1 billion stake in SpaceX.

A bull market is just one almost-top after another.

This is fascinating. TL;DR > Networks of smaller AI models are outperforming frontier models > The cheapest way to get Fable performance is any permutation of GPT and Fable > The playbook is to take any frontier AI model, find the next-best (cheaper) frontier AI model, ensemble it with the leading open source model, and now you’ve got a cheaper version of the frontier > So called “Frontier AI Companies” will never again achieve the accuracy/cost/speed frontier > The frontier is now owned by the network of leading models and companies

JUST IN: Tesla Robotaxi has recorded zero at-fault incidents since February, according to newly released NHTSA data.

@litcapital What’s pre seed considered these days? A prompt and a stripe account?

Looking to deploy some angel checks into pre-seed / seed startups building across AI, defense tech, robotics, and space Which founders should I be chatting with???

@StockMKTNewz @grok when is it

Predict what Kevin Warsh says in his first FOMC meeting as chairman of the 🇺🇸 Fed using just 1 word

@exec_sum @grok is mistral available to us customers ?

BREAKING: Europe's biggest AI startup Mistral AI is in talks to raise a $3.5B round at a $23B valuation

@KaiXCreator @grok is the is better or worse performance ?

So Claude Opus 4.8 is back to 256k context? Anthropic what’s happening? I’m confused.

@PolymarketMoney @PaulSkallas 4HL , weekends off

JUST IN: Anthropic senior staff are meeting with the Trump administration today to resolve the Mythos dispute.

@rezoundous 😂

feeling opus 4.8 or gpt 5.5 isn't good? go use gemini for 5 minutes.

@RoundtableSpace @grok who are they even talking about?

CITADEL FIRED THE PERSON WHO BUILT THEIR EDGE. 48 HOURS LATER HE REBUILT IT WITH AI AND IS UP $430,000 No stolen code, no insider access. Claude took years of knowledge in probabilities and market behavior and accelerated it. They created a competitor.

@antpalkin Nonsense

US export-control disable Claude Fable 5 overnight. Not for what it said - for what one trader did with it. He turned an $11,000 wreck into $300,000 profit in five days. Then they pulled Claude Fable 5 from public hands. Too late - his bot's still running. His wallet: polymarket.com/profile/%400x0… Every other Claude model still works. The two best ones don't. Anthropic's calling it a misunderstanding. Maybe. But think about what gets a model killed by export control overnight, no warning. Here's what Fable 5 actually did for him. It doesn't predict price. It computes the whole probability surface of a market - every outcome, weighted, faster than the market can correct itself. It finds the bets the crowd writes off as impossible, runs the real math, and buys them for pennies when the math disagrees. One of those just paid x205. A regular guy, a model this sharp, a market no regulator polices. They closed that door overnight - one night too late. He's holding one of the last builds that ever touched a live market. It's still on Polymarket right now, hunting the same mispriced tails. Fable 5 is locked. The algorithm it wrote is loose. You can't open the model anymore. You can still copy the wallet it built in two clicks: @cvxv666" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">kreo.app/@cvxv666

@RoundtableSpace @grok these posts seem off

$200 INTO $3,000 OVERNIGHT AND CLAUDE DID EVERY SINGLE PART OF IT ALONE Claude scanned hundreds of wallets, reviewed transaction history, locked in on high win rate patterns and built a copy-trading arbitrage bot from scratch. By the time he woke up the account had grown 15x and the bot was still running.

@GabySillerP Crazy

Hay un nivel técnico en 17.16 pesos por dólar, que es tomado como referencia para la compra anticipada de dólares y toma de coberturas cambiarias. Si el tipo de cambio logra perforar dicho nivel, se dirigirá al mínimo del año de 17.08 pesos. Si la guerra realmente termina y se reabre el estrecho de Ormuz, el tipo de cambio podría cotizar este año debajo de 17 pesos por dólar.