What are the Polymarket odds on whether Orban accepts USA or Russian asylum?
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Nikolai Holmov
26.6K posts
Nikolai Holmov
@OdessaBlogger
Content in obscurity & cosseted by mild eccentricity. Objectivity is giving all a fair hearing. It does not equate to false moral equivalence. RT ≠ endorsement
Search and ye shall find Entrou em Mart 2009
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@irgarner Is Yanukovich the apartment block maintenance man?
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Sitcom pitch: Viktor Orban and Bashar al Assad forced to share a Moscow apartment. Who’s in?
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Hopefully the usual trend of "everything Trump touches turns to shit" will follow from this message:
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Nikolai Holmov retweetou
Today, many Eastern Churches celebrate Easter according to the Julian calendar. In communion of faith in the Risen Lord, I extend my heartfelt wishes for peace to all these communities. Let us #PrayTogether for all those suffering due to war, particularly for the dear people of Ukraine. May the light of Christ bring comfort to afflicted hearts and strengthen the hope for peace. May the international community’s attention to the tragedy of this war not waver!
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@PhillipsPOBrien Probably a reflection of the lessening of US leverage since 2025 as much as anything.
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Fascinating, Zelensky coming out publicly more and more and saying that Trump is working with/for Putin. The Ukrainians seem to have determined that telling the truth is preferable to lying to please Trump.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський@ZelenskyyUa
If sanctions on Russian oil have been lifted because of the war in the Middle East, will the U.S. sanctions be reimposed now that there is a ceasefire? I think that an answer to this question will expose the reason for lifting sanctions in the first place. We just need to wait and see. In my view, Russia played the Americans again – played the President of the United States. The Russians lied about the role their oil supplies played in keeping oil markets stable. If the U.S. reimposes sanctions, that would be fair. But if it doesn’t… We heard that Russia wanted Americans to buy certain energy assets in Europe belonging to Lukoil. I ask myself, “If I want to sell sanctioned energy assets, what do I do?” I come up with a scheme to lift sanctions. How else could I sell it? From an interview with Rai Radio 1 (3/3).
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Nikolai Holmov retweetou
JD Vance has accused European countries of 'interfering in the Hungarian election', after he travelled to Hungary to interfere in the election
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Nikolai Holmov retweetou
What a non-sensical statement by @PressSec . She has no understanding of NATO or how to work with Allies. The sad truth is that in this War, the US Congress was tested and they didn't even show up....that's who has failed.
Gandalv@Microinteracti1
Karoline Leavitt: “They were tested and they failed.” Here’s the thing about NATO that apparently needs explaining to the most powerful government on earth: it is not a taxi. You do not ring NATO. You do not place an order. You do not specify delivery within 72 hours and then stand in the Rose Garden bewildered that nothing has turned up. NATO is a collective defence alliance built on the radical concept that its members are, in fact, members, with votes and opinions and sovereign militaries they get to deploy according to their own national interests. This is written down. It has been written down since 1949. The documents are available in English. Nobody in this administration has read them. Let’s go back to Greenland for a moment, because this is apparently where the rot set in. Trump wanted Greenland. Just wanted it. Asked if he could have it. Was told no, it belongs to Denmark, which is a NATO ally, which means the whole thing was always going to be diplomatically awkward at best and catastrophically self-defeating at worst. His response was not to reflect on this. His response was to decide that NATO was a large problem. An alliance of thirty-two nations that has kept the peace in Europe for seventy-five years was, in his assessment, getting in the way of his property acquisition. This tells you everything you need to know about how the man thinks. And it tells you everything about who he hired to think alongside him. Every serious leader in history, every CEO worth the title, every general who ever won anything, has operated on the same basic principle: hire people smarter than yourself. Steve Jobs did it. Churchill did it. Every remotely competent executive who ever ran anything of consequence understood that your job is not to be the cleverest person in the building. Your job is to find the cleverest people in the building and then get out of their way. Surround yourself with people who will tell you when you’re wrong. Who know things you don’t. Who have read the documents.Trump inverted this entirely. A cabinet selected not for expertise but for loyalty. Not for knowledge but for the willingness to perform agreement. Pete Hegseth at Defence. A communications team that announces things with confidence at a ratio entirely disconnected from understanding. An administration where the qualification for the job was, essentially, never making the man at the top feel inadequate. The outcome of this philosophy is Karoline Leavitt at a podium reading four words as though she had just solved something. Delivered with the serene confidence of someone who has never had to sit in a room and actually work out what NATO is, how it functions, why it was built, or what the word collective means in the context of collective defence. They were tested and they failed. Europe is not shaking its fist. Europe is shaking its head. Slowly. Wearily. In the way you do when you’ve explained something seventeen times and the person across the table still hasn’t got it and you’ve finally accepted that they never will. The allies are building their own defence architecture now, with people in the room who have read the documents. They stopped waiting for Washington to grow into the role some time ago. And somewhere in all of this, Greenland is still Danish. Still will be tomorrow. NATO is still an alliance of sovereign nations who get to say no. Still will be next week. And the White House is still staffed by people who find both of these facts baffling. Some things don’t change just because you haven’t understood them. Stay connected, Follow Gandalv @Microinteracti1
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@APHClarkson It just needs Witkoff and Kushner to secure Trump's cut and it's a done deal then
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In shock news, potentially sensible compromise put in play
Nader Itayim | نادر ایتیّم@ncitayim
NEW: 🇮🇷 Iran is proposing a regional solution to the Hormuz crisis involving at least some of the countries bordering the Mideast Gulf. Part of that would involve charging a fee for vessels passing through, with revenues from this available to all participating countries as 'war reparations'. #oott 🔓 argusmedia.com/en/news-and-in…
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@APHClarkson That perhaps depends on who or what they are negotiating for. They serve Trump, not the USA after all.
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Is there a less successful duo of special envoys in history?
OSINTtechnical@Osinttechnical
Trump says Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will attend Iran peace talks in Pakistan, Vance may not be able to due to security considerations -New York Post
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Nikolai Holmov retweetou
A few observations on Caine's briefing today. The numbers are striking. The questions they raise are more interesting. A 🧵.
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It's not about "a few square kilometers of territory" you intellectual pigmy.
Цензор.НЕТ ✍️@censor_net
Україна та Росія фактично "торгуються" за кілька квадратних кілометрів території, - Венс censor.net/ua/n3609468
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Yet another "Alice through the looking glass" moment.
Piotr Zalewski@p_zalewski
Vance, who flew to Budapest to endorse Victor Orban in Sunday’s elections, accuses the EU and Ukraine of interfering in Hungary’s elections. Yup, you read that correctly.
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I have to be honest, if JD Vance came to support a party I had traditionally voted for, it may not encourage me to vote for another party but it would definitely make me deliberately spoil my vote or abstain from voting.
Fox News@FoxNews
NEW: Vice President Vance delivers a message in Budapest about the "moral cooperation" between the United States and Hungary, under the leadership of President Trump and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. "There is so much that unites the United States and Hungary, and unfortunately, there have been too few people who have been willing to stand up for the values of Western civilization."
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Let us hope that the adage "Everything Trump touches turns to shit" continues in Hungary with the ouster of Orban.
DW Europe@dw_europe
US Vice President JD Vance has arrived in Budapest to meet Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who's facing his toughest election yet. DW's Ferenc Gaal (@elferenco) takes a look at the background to the visit: dw.com/en/in-bid-to-b…
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@JEyal_RUSI You may want to quaify that with "so far" Jonathan. The day is yet young and this place is known for the intellectual plancton that inhabits it
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And we are reading one of the most stupid tweets this day
Robin Monotti@robinmonotti
We are witnessing the greatest humiliation of the US military since Vietnam, and this will be Trump's legacy! Another hundreds of millions fighter plane downed by Iran:
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@ruth_deyermond @APHClarkson He is definitely a V on the VARK learning spectrum and probably would benefit from a classroom seat away from the windows so he isn't easily distracted 🙄
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@OdessaBlogger @APHClarkson He famously doesn't read. People who brief him are told that if they have to give him a document, it should have as little text as possible, no nuance, and lots of pictures. That was true in his 1st term, and he certainly hasn't got smarter or more able to focus since then.
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The problem with this kind of analysis that sits at the level of discourse is that it leads to less attention to the long term impact on material conditions that shape the strategic freedom of action of the US as well as Iran.
Karim Sadjadpour@ksadjadpour
1 The defining deliberations of this war aren't between the US and Iran, but Trump and himself. He’s vacillated between walking away and promising to bomb Iran to the Stone Age. Iran has been consistent: Its ideology is resistance, its strategy is chaos, its endgame is survival.
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@ruth_deyermond @APHClarkson I doubt Trump reads books. He seems to be visually stimulated. If his briefings were short video clips he might be more likely to watch them and be more aware
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@OdessaBlogger @APHClarkson Yes, though no evidence Trump has ever read the Art of the Deal. I think the ghostwriter of one of his other books said that he didn't think Trump had ever read the one he'd written for him.
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