Alexander Clarkson 

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Alexander Clarkson 

Alexander Clarkson 

@APHClarkson

Lecturer for European Politics and History at King's College London. Opinions my own. RT not always endorsement. Also to be found at @aphclarkson.bsky.social

Berlondon Katılım Aralık 2011
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Alexander Clarkson 
Alexander Clarkson @APHClarkson·
After a long road I'm proud that my book "Die Macht Der Diaspora" for @Ullstein, which explores the history of diasporas in Germany will be on sale from 29 September. It looks at diasporas from Ukraine, the Western Balkans, Turkey, Iran and the Arab World amazon.de/Die-Macht-Dias…
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Alexander Clarkson 
Alexander Clarkson @APHClarkson·
@ayatr0llah At this point I'm starting to think declarations of imminent Iranian mastery of the region by too many Western analysts might do the regime more harm than good, by reinforcing domestic Iranian regime echo chamber dynamics that might encourage the IRGC to overplay, again
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ayatrollah
ayatrollah@ayatr0llah·
@APHClarkson I’m skeptical they can actually strike a balance between getting sanctions relief and keeping their base happy
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Alexander Clarkson 
Alexander Clarkson @APHClarkson·
@ayatr0llah If the regime is smart it grabs a sanctions relief deal soon that gives its clientage networks control of a huge influx of investment from Asian and Euro markets rather than waiting too long, overplaying its hand and being no longer able to halt an economic death spiral
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Alexander Clarkson 
Alexander Clarkson @APHClarkson·
@ayatr0llah Iran simply hasn't got economic foundations to sustain the great power status even many anti-regime Iranians fantasise about And the Strait becomes a decreasingly significant asset as global energy markets and supply chains diversify away from an obvious concentration of risk
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Alexander Clarkson 
Alexander Clarkson @APHClarkson·
Putin has in effect set out the claim that Russia cannot survive as a state if it cannot control Ukraine. What we might see in the next decade is self-fulfilling prophecy as the defining characteristic of Late Putinism.
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Oliver Carroll
Oliver Carroll@olliecarroll·
Purpose of Russia’s outrageous but predictable ultimatum today was to persuade diplomats to leave Kyiv. The most experienced are calling out the BS. The European Union’s @kmathernova setting a good example here. Hopefully the rest follow facebook.com/share/1CxbVhex…
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Yaroslav Trofimov
Yaroslav Trofimov@yarotrof·
Ukraine doesn’t have the same firepower as Russia. But it does have the ability to respond to catastrophic bombing of Kyiv with massive strikes on central Moscow, something it hasn’t done so far.
Yaroslav Trofimov@yarotrof

Lavrov called Rubio, asking the U.S. to evacuate the American embassy and American citizens from Kyiv because Moscow intends to launch a campaign of systematic strikes on the Ukrainian capital. Like they haven’t been doing it for more than four years now!

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Alexander Clarkson 
Alexander Clarkson @APHClarkson·
In the late 1940s most Poles or Jews didn't think they could trust Germans for generations either. It took decades of effort by Germans to restore trust with societies Nazi Germany had annihilated. Are Russia's state and society capable of a similar effort after Putin is gone?
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Alexander Clarkson 
Alexander Clarkson @APHClarkson·
The onus for lasting reconciliation after the war is not on Ukraine. It is on Russia. Just as the onus for lasting reconciliation after 1945 was not on Israel or Poland. It was on Germany.
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Alexander Clarkson 
Alexander Clarkson @APHClarkson·
Germany and Japan were only integrated into democratic alliances after total defeat was followed by trials of key figures involved in war crimes. Even partial integration into the EU's geoeconomic order will require complete restructuring of state and society in Russia.
Mark Galeotti@MarkGaleotti

This is Ukraine's UN rep wanting "no reconciliation with Russia for centuries". In other words, future generations ought to be constrained by the (admittedly terrible) events of the present, and Russia should be encouraged to feel at permanent war with Ukraine. Appalling.

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Alexander Clarkson  retweetledi
The Kyiv Independent
The Kyiv Independent@KyivIndependent·
In one of the most devastating attacks on Kyiv since the start of the full-scale war, Russia’s missiles and drones targeted some of the city’s most treasured cultural landmarks. kyivindependent.com/russias-latest…
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Alexander Clarkson 
Alexander Clarkson @APHClarkson·
And it's important to keep in mind that there are enough hawks close to the Israelis around Trump's entourage who share Netanyahu's goal to shatter the Iranian state that we can't feel fully confident that this will de-escalate until Trump is out of office
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Alexander Clarkson 
Alexander Clarkson @APHClarkson·
Most likely outcome is still that Iranians hand over something on the nuclear file without seriously weakening military capacity that gives Trump a face-saving facade because Tehran desperately needs sanctions relief. But I won't trust any outcome for months until Trump moves on
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Alexander Clarkson 
Alexander Clarkson @APHClarkson·
Another plausible hypothesis is that these are disconnected brainfarts that even before this war started tell us very little about what the final outcome will be. Before declaring an endgame I'd wait for a few weeks to see how things are going after anything is signed
laurence norman@laurnorman

If this level of probably delusional confection is required to sweeten the emerging Iran deal, it speaks mainly to the bitterness of the underlying pill.

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Alexander Clarkson 
Alexander Clarkson @APHClarkson·
Beyond any moral arguments, it is this kind of intensely destabilising actions that will have knock on effects on the East Med and Europe as a whole in terms of refugee flows and border security that is eroding Israel's position among its firmest friends in the EU
Zeina Khodr@ZeinakhodrAljaz

Israeli army issues forced displacement order for the city of Tyre and surrounding villages … calling on residents to move away from buildings marked red on a map posted on social media #Lebanon

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Zeina Khodr
Zeina Khodr@ZeinakhodrAljaz·
Israeli army issues forced displacement order for the city of Tyre and surrounding villages … calling on residents to move away from buildings marked red on a map posted on social media #Lebanon
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