Alexander Clarkson 

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Alexander Clarkson 

Alexander Clarkson 

@APHClarkson

Senior Lecturer for European Politics and History at King's College London. Opinions my own. RT not always endorsement. Also at @aphclarkson.bsky.social

Berlondon Katılım Aralık 2011
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Alexander Clarkson 
Alexander Clarkson @APHClarkson·
After a long road I'm proud that my book "Die Macht Der Diaspora" for @Ullstein, which explores the history of diasporas in Germany will be on sale from 29 September. It looks at diasporas from Ukraine, the Western Balkans, Turkey, Iran and the Arab World amazon.de/Die-Macht-Dias…
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Brian Winter
Brian Winter@BrazilBrian·
Over the last decade Latin America has been a pretty good model for understanding U.S. politics. Back in 2015-16, my first friends who truly anticipated Pr Trump's appeal & how he would govern were Argentines & Brazilians. "We've seen this movie before!" Today, I look at Trump's plummeting approval and early polls for 2028 primaries, and wonder why we aren't taking more seriously the possibility of an AOC presidency or other Dem Socialist in Bernie mold. Record numbers of people disillusioned w status quo, angry at unpopular "caudillo" and the insular plutocracy at a time of epochal economic change (AI) & stagnant wages, plus no life experience w results of these policies (public supermarkets etc). 2-party system where any candidate will have at least a ~45% chance of winning. I don't make predictions, but I do see parallels. Oh and - why do U.S. politics increasingly resemble LatAm? Go look at inequality numbers: our social pyramids much more similar than 25 years ago. Helps explain Trump, but next up may be a populist on the left.
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Anna Jacobs Khalaf
Anna Jacobs Khalaf@AnnaLeaJacobs·
I shared some thoughts about Saudi Arabia’s recent attacks on Iran-aligned armed groups in Iraq and Yemen in this report for @washingtonpost The key messages in my view are that 1) Saudi Arabia will continue using both diplomacy and military means to manage threats from Iran and its allies in the region. It’s never going to be either/or. 2) Saudi Arabia is using the military option more frequently than earlier in the war as they confront more threats from multiple fronts (particularly on critical energy and export infrastructure) and need to restore some deterrence, 3) their military responses are still relatively contained so far and more in the realm of sending a message than signalling a full entry into the war and 4) they are still committed to the path of de-escalation, finding a modus vivendi with Iran, and working longer term toward a sustainable regional security architecture. washingtonpost.com/national-secur…
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Christopher Miller
Christopher Miller@ChristopherJM·
Truly horrific. A Russian missile struck a family home near Zelenskyy's hometown of Kryvyi Rih overnight. "The Russian missile struck with such force that almost nothing was left of the house… Fragments of human bodies were found under the rubble, and only forensic examinations can establish which members of the family they belong to."
Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський@ZelenskyyUa

Today, the Russians used their ballistic missile to destroy an ordinary house belonging to an ordinary family in Radushne, near Kryvyi Rih, in our Dnipro region. It was the Voronov family: mother Olena, father Artem, seven children – Mark, Dominika, Zakharii, Azarii Ilai, Federica, Emilia, and Viorika – and one-and-a-half-year-old grandson Artem, the child of their eldest son, who is now defending Ukraine. As of now, it has been confirmed that parents and three children – Mark, Azarii Ilai, and Emilia – were killed. The Russian missile struck with such force that almost nothing was left of the house… Fragments of human bodies were found under the rubble, and only forensic examinations can establish which members of the family they belong to. The fate of Zakharii, Dominika, Viorika, Federica, and Artem is still being determined… It is a horrific crime of Russia’s war against Ukraine – against ordinary people, against ordinary life. This Russian evil can only be stopped by the whole world. No one in the world can be left to face such terror alone. And when we say that Ukraine needs missiles for Patriots, when we seek the capabilities to defend ourselves against Russian ballistic missiles, this isn’t about abstractions. We are talking about families like this, people like these, who can live if we have the means to shoot down Russian missiles – if our partners help us with interceptors. Families who can be killed if we have nothing to stop Russian Iskanders with. It is important that these people are seen by those who make decisions – decisions at the Pentagon, in European capitals, and everywhere in the world where there is an opportunity to help Ukraine protect lives. Reality speaks for itself. Protecting lives is necessary. Air defense missiles are necessary. Eternal memory to all Ukrainians who were killed by Russian strikes… Eternal gratitude to everyone who helps!

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John Cassidy
John Cassidy@JohnCassidy·
Long bond yields don't normally jump 10 basis points after a Fed meeting at which short rates are held steady. Just saying...
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Stanimir Dobrev
Stanimir Dobrev@delfoo·
I would point out that if the Russian state assumes the responsibility to cover warehouse goods losses Ukraine will nave an incentive to continue hitting warehouses as every trillion rubles that goes to cover warehouse losses is a trillion not going to the military.
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Christopher Miller
Christopher Miller@ChristopherJM·
Part one of our two-part @FT story about Ukraine's long-range attacks on Russian oil and gas facilities explained how Kyiv has shifted its campaign to more targeted strikes on critical components that are hard to replace. ft.com/content/5ca782… Part two, below, looks at the impact, and how the campaign has knocked out a significant portion of Russia’s actual and nominal capacity and triggered the worst fuel crisis in the petrostate since the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Anastasia Stognei@NastyaStognei

🔥The fires at Russian refineries make the headlines. The real damage lies beneath Hundreds of satellite images we studied show that Kyiv is now hitting the hardest-to-repair units — which is why refineries remain offline long after the smoke clears ft.com/content/3990cb…

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Stanimir Dobrev
Stanimir Dobrev@delfoo·
There's reporting that Wildberries asked the Russian government for state support worth 800 billion rubles or 10 billion USD. Of these 500 billion will be used to compensate losses and 300 billion rubles will be used to set up air defense for their sites.
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Alexander Clarkson 
Alexander Clarkson @APHClarkson·
Whether regular Russians consider the death of Russia's e-commerce such a national humiliation that they are willing to fight to the death for Putin, Russia and Wildberried will be tested during the next Russian military mobilisation effort
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Alexander Clarkson 
Alexander Clarkson @APHClarkson·
Russia's e-commerce is heading towards a costly Russian government bailout with the Putin regime stuck effectively managing these businesses at a massive loss if it wants to sustain a facade of peacetime "normality"
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Rob Lee
Rob Lee@RALee85·
“The Ukrainian campaign knocked out more than 30 and 45 per cent of Russia’s actual and nominal capacity, respectively, triggering the worst fuel crisis in the petrostate since the collapse of the Soviet Union… Ukraine’s targeted campaign, aided by US and French intelligence, has helped trigger a severe fuel crisis in Russia, with sales restrictions in nearly every region and long queues at filling stations. Russia had restored some refining capacity, helped by a resumption of operations at Omsk, said Daniel Evans, global head of fuels and refining at S&P Global Energy. But much capacity remains offline, making supply to Russia’s otherwise balanced domestic market “very challenging”, he added.” @NastyaStognei @sdbernard ft.com/content/3990cb…
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Alexander Clarkson 
Alexander Clarkson @APHClarkson·
@IranWonk And on that note, we're seeing right now how problematic it is in conflict scenarios when media discourse privileges analysis of military or regime elite dynamics over expertise in political economy, supply chains, banking systems, infrastructure and so on
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Alexander Clarkson 
Alexander Clarkson @APHClarkson·
@IranWonk It reminds me a bit of how many analysts were convinced Assad was indestructible etc. Doesn't mean the fall of regimes soon is inevitable, but it does mean needing to keep an eye on their structural vulnerabilities, which is usually economic
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Farzan Sabet
Farzan Sabet@IranWonk·
Last year, I had a long debate with an expert prominently cited in this piece, who swore CP Reza Pahlavi was finished, politically, because of his position during the 12-Day War. Then the Lion & Sun uprising happened. Unsurprisingly, their position is exactly the same today.
Dr Kylie Moore-Gilbert@KMooreGilbert

As I've said before, Reza Pahlavi has peaked. His undoing has been part self-inflicted, part a consequence of geopolitical events outside his control. This even-handed article does a good job of setting out where his campaign went wrong, while offering Pahlavi and his associates a right of reply reuters.com/investigations…

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Jessica Elgot
Jessica Elgot@jessicaelgot·
It is a truly rose-tinted view of the resources of HMRC that they have official resource to check the value of a rack of M&S raincoats.
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Pippa Crerar
Pippa Crerar@PippaCrerar·
Andy Burnham yesterday, before Robert Jenrick condemned a social care policy that doesn't yet exist: "Please can we have a factual debate? Can we allow people to weigh up the different options… and then just come to a considered view based on those facts? “I don’t think it should be too much to ask, because I think the public will give us their view. They’ll make it really clear what they feel they can accept and what they can’t. “We won’t get to that point if there’s all of this stuff swirling around, and everyone frightened about everything. That just won’t get us there.”
Jessica Elgot@jessicaelgot

Jenrick tells the Reform UK press conference this morning an official will come to your dying mother's bedroom to tot up her jewellery, brooches and coats under Andy Burnham's new "death tax" which - let's remember - doesn't actually exist.

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Alexander Clarkson 
Alexander Clarkson @APHClarkson·
@Andy_Crain You can collapse a state's capacity and economy long before its authoritarian regime falls. Some regime elements can even prosper in collapse
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Andrew Crain
Andrew Crain@Andy_Crain·
@APHClarkson If you want to topple a regime, you have to topple the regime. Not destroy the economy. Not kill lots of civilians. Go in, defeat the army, and unseat them.
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Alexander Clarkson 
Alexander Clarkson @APHClarkson·
At some point US frustration will start lashing out more systematically at what remains of Iran's electricity grid. Yet the IRGC will probably even survive state failure and economic collapse in Iran in what could be a kind of Yemenisation scenario.
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