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-1.5% Fridays in $SPX when above the 200MA bounces an avg +0.1% the following Monday, vs -0.5% when below:

OPTEX just fired. This isn’t random. Look at the rhythm. November: –5.5% → V bounce December: –3.4% → continuation January: –3.1% → higher high February: –3.2% → structure holds Every dip was controlled. Rotational. Bought. Now March: –5.5% That’s the shift. We’re no longer in a 3% pullback environment. This is expansion. Acceleration. Same category as November - not noise. Optex = an extreme/mean reversion tool. It flags when price is stretched too far from balance and likely nearing exhaustion. Now you have that signal firing into a –5.5% move. That’s confluence. 6550 is the level. Hold → bounce + base Break → continuation lower Not calling bottom — this is where reactions happen. Let price confirm. $SPX $SPY $QQQ @Optuma

After 53 trading days of the year, $SPX is still doing better than last year -3.49% vs -3.72% in 2025 (on avg the index is +3.59% at this time of year). $XLE +32% is only the best start to the year since 2022, with worst start since 2020 for $XLF (-10.5%)

Here's how clients can link scans to a watchlist to quickly see the results: youtu.be/kCqWt2sA_s8?si…

41 $SPX stocks crossed above their 50MA today, incl $PANW for the 1st time since November. However, 65 crossed below, ending longterm periods above for $HII & $CAT. Only 27% of $SPX stocks closed above their 50MA today:

This week's AAII Bull/Bear spread is at its lowest level since May (-21.6):

After 7 straight days of negative Advance-Declines for the S&P1500 members, this week has started strong with 1000+ advancers on Monday & 988 Tuesday. However, the Breadth Thrust indicator is still < 50 and needs to reach 55 before turning green:

With next week's quarterly index rebalancing, getting added to the $SPX is no guarantee of future performance. Of the 18 changes in 2025 only 8 are higher from the date they were added, with most down double-digits. $SNDK is the clear leader (+227% since Nov 28th), & $TTD the loser down 67% since July 18th:

The S&P 500 is <0.5% above its 200-day moving average after 211 days above it. What happens when runs this long finally break? Find out here: dropbox.com/scl/fi/julpxt5… redcedarresearch.com

Since 1999, the avg March for $SPX has bottomed on the 12th, before closing +1.16% on the month.

Following the 6th straight day of negative Advance-Declines (-860 today), the S&P1500 Breadth Thrust is at the lowest levels since the April low, but the index is still within 5% of the highs:

@RyanRedfernCMT @JohnRothe Hey Ryan - create a free account at FRED and then connect to Optuma: optuma.com/kb/optuma/data…

@JohnRothe How did you get this ticker in @Optuma ?

One area that I don't like is credit spreads. They are still widening. When they trade above the cloud, there tends to be a larger pullback in the S&P500. Not always, but enough that it's a red flag for me and worth keeping a close eye on.

Advance - Decline Breadth has deteriorated significantly, with more stocks declining than advancing in the S&P1500 for 5 straight days. The Breadth Thrust indicator (10 day EMA of (Adv / Adv+Dec)) is below 40 for the 1st time since October:

Communications $XLC is the only SPDR Sector leading the $SPX on a daily Relative Rotation Graph. 7 of the sectors are weakening, but both Finance $XLF & Technology $XLK are improving and heading northeast (increasing relative momentum). Note the relative strength of software ETF $IGV:

15 $SPX stocks made new 3 month relative lows. All-time for $BXP and 16 years for $A:

62 $SPX made new 3 month relative highs today, incl new all-time relative and closing highs for $MCK, $PWR, & $GEV

This is the 18th time that a negative February has followed a positive January for the $SPX. Here's the average performance over the next 3 months:

@nullcharts Working on filling that opening gap:

Crude oil futures are fading the initial +10% move at a key level, one that has capped every major advance for the past 4 years: The Volume Weighted Average Price anchored to the post–Russia/Ukraine war peak in 2022. $CL_F $BRN_F $USO $XLE

11.5% opening gap in Oil $CL_F but now at 50% retracement: