@igor_mundstock I know that ratio well. What about it specifically?
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Ricardo Sarraf
1.1K posts
Ricardo Sarraf
@nullcharts
intermarket / cycles / technical analysis / history / thematic / macro. all opinions are my own, not investment advice, etc.
Katılım Kasım 2023
294 Takip Edilen7.8K Takipçiler
Energy’s dominance over Big Tech / Mag Seven has accelerated.
Many moves across the space may feel extended, but history suggests there is still meaningful room for further outperformance.
If anything, the trend and momentum profiles today resemble November 2021 more than October 2020.
$XLE $MAGS
Ricardo Sarraf@nullcharts
The Mag Seven topped out vs the energy sector in December of 2025, at the same level it did back in October of 2020, when $XLE bottomed and ran 250% over the next two years... The Mags continued their ascent for another 12 months, but they lagged energy, which itself was breaking higher. Markets rarely rinse and repeat that easily. But price is confirming...
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$DSPX - $VIX just went from negative to positive.
This means index-level implied vol (VIX) was higher than average single-stock implied vol (DSPX).
This cycle, that's been a great precursor to durable mid-term lows... Timing the sentiment resets perfectly...
Price must confirm, as always.
note: the DSPX launched in late 2023, all data prior was reconstructed after the fact.
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Make or break point for the defensive rotation and broader value trade.
Key levels throughout for the more offensive groups to pick up the baton... again
$RSPD $RSPS
Ricardo Sarraf@nullcharts
The Value vs Growth ( $IWD / $IWF ) and Discretionary vs Staples ( $XLY / $XLP ) ratios are tightly linked. They have moved largely in tandem over the past decade. Many of these trends look extended in the shorter timeframes both on an absolute and relative basis. Right now, Value/Growth is sitting at nine-month highs, while Staples/Discretionary is at seven-month highs. It's worth noting that moves like this have often showed up ahead of more aggressive corrective phases. Will this time be different?
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Another chart that may offer valuable clues about the next move in Emerging Markets: copper.
Historically, copper and EM equities have shared a strong positive correlation. Moves in one tend to be followed by moves in the other, even as EM economies have evolved beyond purely extraction-driven models.
Right now, copper is struggling to break above its first extension level. The primary trend remains bullish, but in the near term, bulls need to step up to keep momentum intact.
Ricardo Sarraf@nullcharts
Behold, the most bearish chart on the planet for the Ex-US trade. Dollar officially entering The Pain Zone. $DXY
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@MonkeyHuman420 I want it to be a fakeout. But gotta remain objective if we get a breakout. Close
substack.com/home/post/p-19…
allstarcharts.com/all-star-chart…
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@nullcharts I think you might have the directionality wrong on this one brotha
100 is resistance & DXY is in a 🐻
Even a quick “throw over” slightly above 100 doesn’t mean much
Fakeout
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Behold, the most bearish chart on the planet for the Ex-US trade.
Dollar officially entering The Pain Zone.
$DXY
Ricardo Sarraf@nullcharts
Emerging Markets vs United States holding the line... still Important development for the ex-US trade writ large. One of the most important levels I've been watching, along with $DXY 100 - 101. $EEM $SPY
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@nullcharts bro come on. You're comparing a baseline to a thing divided by the inverse of that baseline. Ofc they're going to move together. It's circular. If yields go up then anything divided by tlt should go up (unless the thing is hurt by rising yields more than the bonds themselves)
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So long yields heading higher from here huh...
Ricardo Sarraf@nullcharts
Are US long yields ready to catch higher? German and Japanese 30s already pressing all-time highs. Canadian and American 30s look like they could follow soon.... $XLE $TYX $TYX
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@aaronrdt Airlines probably gonna suffer w/ higher kerosene or whatever they use to fly em these days
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@nullcharts Transports or trump one? Or both😂 transport ls interesting from the energy price shock like airlines
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@nullcharts Welcome to the pain zone friends. Instead of charts to buy why doesn’t anyone present good charts to short?
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@HostileCharts haha you underestimate me. tom platz bro come on. only reason I know of the pain zone
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@nullcharts Do you know who that is in that photo? *Don't google it.
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Credit Spreads are beginning to flash warning signs.
Not a good sign. Whole market looks increasingly weaker...
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