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@PrettyNoice

Entrou em Mart 2014
514 Seguindo23 Seguidores
ἀρετή
ἀρετή@PrettyNoice·
@MarketMaestro1 The stock isn't frozen on your part ? The graph doesn't move on my end, neither on Google, Nasdaq or Avanza, it's stuck at 12:59
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MarketMaestro
MarketMaestro@MarketMaestro1·
$SIVE It got rejected at fibo61 Its technological narrative is very strong Sivers is signing very strong partnerships in the Silicon Photonics and 5G/SATCOM verticals: Sivers has the potential to become a key player solving the bottleneck in AI infrastructure.
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NewsWire
NewsWire@NewsWire_US·
Some top Democrats are quietly debating whether the party's best bet for 2028 is to nominate a man — a straight, White, Christian man — (Axios)
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ἀρετή@PrettyNoice·
@PittsburgWizard @NewsWire_US Only works if there's a strong discriminatory citerium for citizenship, very short mandates (1-2 years) and intractable accountability, e.g. : exile, death, enslavement or seizure of all assets for deliberate mismanagement of public affairs
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Nathan The Green
Nathan The Green@PittsburgWizard·
I’m all those and would deny if given the chance. Electoral politics leads to our shit country today. Fk these popularity contests. Government by random selection like jury duty. They are law bound to vote the will of their constituents. Thats the only way out of the corruption trap.
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ἀρετή
ἀρετή@PrettyNoice·
@MaoBaoBaomby People are not pricing the company's financials, they're pricing the probability that it will hold a steady seat on the AI supply chain in the near future. This cheap stock today works exactly like an option, and therefore it bears the same uncertainty
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Mao BaoBao
Mao BaoBao@MaoBaoBaomby·
Before you buy $SIVE based on someone's "$10B bull case," here are the actual numbers from their latest filing (Q4 2025): Let's actually look at this company from fundamental perspectives: Full Year 2025: → Revenue: SEK 304M (~$29M USD) → Net loss: SEK -186.5M (~-$18M USD) → That loss GREW 60% YoY (from -116M), even as revenue grew 25% → EBITDA: SEK -55.7M, worsened 78% from prior year's -31.3M → EBIT: SEK -141.3M vs -127.1M prior year → EPS: SEK -0.69, worse than prior year's -0.49 → Cash on hand: SEK 43.5M (~$4.2M USD) → Product revenue (actual product sales, not NRE/contracts): SEK 85.7M (~$8.2M USD) for the entire year Read that again. $4.2M in cash. Burning ~$18M/year in losses. That means dilution is coming — it's not a question of if, but when. The CEO touts a $453M "opportunity pipeline" that grew 64%. But pipeline is not revenue — it's a wish list. Their biggest confirmed future contract? A LIDAR customer with $28-53M in cumulative revenue over 2026-2030. That's $6-11M per year. Forward estimates don't help the bull case either: → 2026 revenue consensus: ~SEK 371M (~$36M USD) — still tiny → 2026 EPS consensus: SEK -0.32 — still deeply negative, no profitability in sight → Revenue estimates have actually been revised DOWN over the past 90 days, from SEK 378M to SEK 371M for 2026 → And the company has a history of missing even those lowered estimates — in Q3 2025, they missed revenue expectations by 9.4% and EPS by 58% Now look at the valuation: the stock recently traded at ~SEK 4.12B market cap (~$400M USD). That's ~11x forward revenue for a company with accelerating losses, $4M cash, shrinking estimates, and no path to breakeven. The comps people throw around — $LITE at $55B, $COHR at $53B — do billions in actual revenue with real margins. $SIVE does $29M and loses money on every dollar. There's a reason certain promoters tell you to "stop using P/S or P/E" on this stock. Because the moment you do, the thesis falls apart. The photonics/CPO trend may be real. But a real trend doesn't make every company in the space a good investment. Especially one burning cash faster than it's growing revenue, with a balance sheet that screams imminent dilution, and forward estimates moving in the wrong direction. Do your own due diligence. Read the actual filings. Run the numbers yourself. All figures sourced from Sivers Semiconductors' official Q4 2025 interim report (Feb 26, 2026) and analyst consensus via GuruFocus/Yahoo Finance. Also from the price action and volume below, you can literally tell whether the stock was being pumped and dumped
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ἀρετή@PrettyNoice·
@ChasseursFrance @Europe1 Excellente initiative. Bien au-delà des insectes, cela va endiguer l'érosion hydrique et radoucir les croûtes de battance, renouveler la matière organique sans apports chimiques et coûteux, et sur des limons la compétition des végétaux ne causera aucun préjudice aux cultures
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ἀρετή@PrettyNoice·
@TheLongInvest This is you plunging your hands in the guts of dead things as you ask the divine charts to unveil the future
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The Long Investor
The Long Investor@TheLongInvest·
Buying fundamentally undervalued positions in Wave C and Wave 2 is a strategy Meaning, you will always buy value And never at the top And will never chase And you know what you are doing
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ἀρετή@PrettyNoice·
@Noobverest @kr0der @aleabitoreddit @TheValueist Sure but Groq was a threat to Nvidia, whereas the acquisition of Sivers by Broadcom would be opportunistic, not defensive, and it doesn't quite match their style. I think they won't buy it, and if they do, not for 3x MC
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Noobverest Rice King
Noobverest Rice King@Noobverest·
@PrettyNoice @kr0der @aleabitoreddit @TheValueist Usually acquisitions drive up stock value significantly For this kind of tech acquisition - it can be like grow in multiples Like Groq raised 759m, valued at 6-7b, acquired by Nvidia for 20 billion So SIVE if acquired can see a similar boost esp since its undergoing rerating
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TheValueist
TheValueist@TheValueist·
It definitely seems like $SIVE is a layup $1bn acquisition for a larger company interested in expanding in optics. Do an all stock deal and roll the dice. Worst case scenario, you bring lots of smart people into the parent company in one quick shot. There have been many worse bets in corporate America. $NVDA $MU $SNDK $LITE
Serenity@aleabitoreddit

Just a shower thought: Would be smart for a competitor like $AVGO to buy $MRVL upstream light source for $280M with $SIVE. Then you control their short-mid term photonics roadmap with Celestial. Kind of like $QLCM did with Alphawave and OpenLight ecosystem. Quite a few hedge funds already talked about potential M&A opportunities. Asked Gemini, response was funny

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ἀρετή@PrettyNoice·
@kr0der @aleabitoreddit @TheValueist From all I know you either sell your shares at a premium or convert them into that of the acquirer, so Idk why this comment section seems so excited
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ἀρετή@PrettyNoice·
@Kaizen_Investor It's bad practice to prompt such comprehensive requests. LLM get lost and sloppy, they produce much thorough results if you go one step at a time, with a few back and forth in light mode before you start a deep research
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KaizenInvestor
KaizenInvestor@Kaizen_Investor·
1/4 Copy Paste this prompt into Deep Research, make sure you add the company name and industry: "You are a highly skilled financial analyst and equity researcher specializing in [Industry of the company]. Your task is to produce a 20–30 page deep written report on [Company Name], aimed at professional equity analysts. The report must be objective, data-backed, and fully cited with around 150 different credible sources (industry reports, financial filings, news, analyst notes, etc.). The final output should be formatted for Word or PDF export, without charts or graphs (text only). Tone & Style Requirements: Formal, objective, and analytical — suitable for institutional investors. Concise yet comprehensive; no marketing language. All statements must be supported by reliable, verifiable sources. Citations must follow a numbered bibliography at the end. The report must at least have 7.500 words. The main titles of the report should be numbered (1., 2.,3.,…) do not number the subtitles but make them bold. Start with an executive summary, don’t number the executive summary. Here is the Main structure titles: 1. Introduction to [Company Name] 2. History 3. Leadership 4. Business model 5. Competitive advantages 6. Financials 7. Financial Health 8. Competitor Analysis 9. Opportunities and Risks 10. Pricing analysis 11. Valuation Realism Check 12. Overall Conclusion Structure & Page Guidelines: 1. Introduction to [Company Name] (~1 page) Core business overview High-level market positioning 2. History (~1 page) Key milestones IPO details Evolution of product offerings 3. Leadership (~0.5 page) Short Introduction of the CEO Background, prior experience, leadership style Influence on company strategy Stock Based Compensation 4. Business Model (3 pages) Explain the complete business model of the company Detailed description of products/services, target customers Revenue streams 5. Competitive advantages (2 pages) Switching costs Network effects Proprietary Technology/IP Pricing Power R&D Intensity (use graph R&D to revenue for the right figures) 6. Financials (~0.5 page per KPI) For each KPI, show historical trend, explain reasons for movements using the business model context: Revenues (use graph on revenues for the right figures) Margins (use the graph on margins for the right figures) Free cash flow (use the graph on free cash flow for the right figures) Net Operating Profit ROIC & ROE (use the graph on ROIC and ROE for the right figures) 7. Financial Health (~1 page) Liquidity ratios Debt structure Working capital efficiency Credit ratings if applicable 8. Competitor Analysis (2–3 pages) Key players in DSP and programmatic advertising Comparative positioning Strengths and weaknesses of each competitor 9. Opportunities & Risks (~2 pages) Look for the opportunities and risks in the latest fillings of the company (10-k report,..) Macro trends Regulatory risks (privacy laws, ad-tech regulation) Technological risks/opportunities (AI, cookie deprecation) 10. Pricing Analysis (~2 pages) P/E and Forward P/E vs sector peers but also the historical trend of these KPI's Reverse DCF (10-year horizon, latest stock price, free cash flow excluding SBC, 3% perpetuity growth, 10% required return). Make sure you perform this Reverse DCF with a clear outcome. Use this outcome for the valuation realism check. If Free Cash Flow is negative, calculate what the cash flow should be over the next 10 years to explain the current stock price. 11. Valuation Realism Check (~1.5 pages) Assess if implied growth rates are realistic and reverse dcf outcome is realistic. Compare to historical growth and market dynamics 12. Overall Conclusion (~1 page) Summarize investment case Indicate bias-neutral conclusion Final Deliverable: 20–30 pages of clean, formatted text Word or PDF export ready Numbered bibliography with ~150 unique sources Important Instructions: Take the time to research thoroughly before writing. Use the charts in attachment to base your figures on. These charts will be added to the final report. Don’t add tables or own graphs to the report. Make sure everything is just plain text. Ensure all financial data is up to date and adjusted for the latest filings."
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KaizenInvestor
KaizenInvestor@Kaizen_Investor·
Here is how I use $GOOGL Gemini to learn about as much companies as possible. It only takes me 5 minutes per company. Follow my 4-steps to do the same 👇
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ἀρετή
ἀρετή@PrettyNoice·
@Tanjahamburg72 @aleabitoreddit @Hiraweb3 Depends on your thesis. If you're bullish like Serenity, it sucks because you're only getting a premium on current share prices. If you're comfortable around todays market cap then it's free money
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Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
Just a shower thought: Would be smart for a competitor like $AVGO to buy $MRVL upstream light source for $280M with $SIVE. Then you control their short-mid term photonics roadmap with Celestial. Kind of like $QLCM did with Alphawave and OpenLight ecosystem. Quite a few hedge funds already talked about potential M&A opportunities. Asked Gemini, response was funny
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ἀρετή@PrettyNoice·
@Ud197601 @aleabitoreddit I'm guessing you're thinking of their CHIPS Act, but that would favor the acquisition by an american company like Broadcom
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ἀρετή@PrettyNoice·
@alc2022 How do you figure that out ? It saves you from a $16k loss, and long term macro effects such as that of the war on Iran may very well deteriorate the fundamentals of your pick forever
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Antonio Linares
Antonio Linares@alc2022·
If you were going to invest $20K into a stock anyway, and it drops 80%. That drop just handed you $80K for free. Same $20K. Five times the ownership. The investor who understands this doesn't fear drawdowns. He hunts them.
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Democratic Wins Media
Democratic Wins Media@DemocraticWins·
BREAKING: Four years after her famous speech on the Michigan Senate floor, Mallory McMorrow is officially leading the race to become Michigan's next Senator. Let's go.
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ἀρετή@PrettyNoice·
@analyt1c @aleabitoreddit The actual CEO bought a whole bunch of shares on his own money at around 3 SEK start of march and hasn't sold a single one since the surge. Thomson is unweighting is portfolio which was massively loaded with SIVE since 22
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nyx
nyx@analyt1c·
@aleabitoreddit I find the stock interesting, but I have been really turned off by insiders and large longtime holders dumping what they can during this pump. This tells me a story that can only be told from the inside and out. What is your take on this?
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Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
This is why you need to have conviction before entering a trade. If you knew $SIVE positioning in the CW laser space to Jabil, $MRVL Celestial, and others for CPO. $250M MC as the light source chokepoint would be a joke. High confidence we’ll see this end up like $AXTI in a years time since it this will be the architectural paradigm for cpo scale up. Don’t care about volatility in the way up because I have conviction in how this plays out with photonics.
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Jornka@Jornka329996

@Wolfex_Yeat @PrettyNoice @aleabitoreddit Whats your buy in? I just sold for30% loss

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ἀρετή@PrettyNoice·
@ntcoffeee @aleabitoreddit The COO and his VC fund got a staggering amount of shares back in 2022 (I think) and is only unweighting his portfolio, it's not a distress signal imo
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Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
You cant spell Winner without Win. Because of that: I’m bullish on $SIVE supply chain. $SIVE -> WIN (TPE:3105) -> Ayar SuperNova -> $JBL -> Hyperscalers, as one flow. If you compare to $LITE and others that’s also in the same CPO CW WDM space. There’s a reason why: -> $POET / $MRVL Celestial. -> Ayar / $JBL and O-Net use $SIVE. It’s designed in as the light source for the next-gen photonics architecture for hyperscalers. At a ~$300M valuation. And I do think WDM DFB arrays are the superior architecture for scale up. And are incredibly hard to develop. It's not a zero-sum architectural game and will likely be split with how you handle scale out with single emitters like $LITE and $COHR. As well as captive suppliers like $MRVL and how they design their architectures. But if you look at the MC difference (~$300m with $SIVE, $55B with $LITE). Anyone can see how clear how valuable the $330M incoming disruptor in $SIVE is to the photonics space. And especially with the $4B foundry in Win Semi that captures fabless laser production from $SIVE, $AVGO, $MTSI and other players at scale. It’s highly asymmetrical to long both the supply chain as exposure to where photonics and hyperscalers architecture are heading.
Serenity tweet media
Serenity@aleabitoreddit

I am long Win Semi (3105.TWO) at $4.1B MC. I believe markets are sleeping on of the most important foundries in the world (aside from $TSM). IMO their strategic positioning exceeds far beyond $4B MC. They sit in almost every major chokepoints: -> In the SpaceX Starlink LEO supply chain. -> As $AVGO, $LITE, $MTSI, $SIVE InP foundries for optical transceivers -> then as the body/eyes of humanoids as the GaAs foundry for TOF lasers possibly mapping to Boston Dynamic Atlas -> With legacy from MediaTek / Qualcomm / $AAPL from their previous business. But Win appears to be bottom of the legacy drag (like with $SOI), with optical as one of their largest growth vectors. Then... Win has the largest TAM expansion/revenue acceleration out of almost any foundry: With: LEO, humanoids / CW laser, 800g, 1.6t, 3.2t optical transceiver massive ramp up over the next few years. Especially with Broadcom as their anchor client ( $AVGO owns ~5% of Win). $NVDA doesn't care who makes the lasers, whether it's $LITE or $COHR. They just care if there's enough. There's not enough. -> Demand for CW lasers will likely go parabolic. (they make the lasers that companies like $SIVE designs) -> Demand for LEO satellites (SpaceX Starlink) will likely go parabolic. -> Demand for humanoids will likely go parabolic. As, Win Semi sits as a semi-monopoly chokepoint in the three most frontier and fastest growing industries for photonics/AI, robotics/humanoids, and space. Especially with Optical TAM explosion: Win fwd earnings for 2027 roughly in ~35x range, I do think this is sandbagging it and forward multiples will end up dirt cheap. Win will largely benefit from TAM expansion and accelerated revenue growth. Of course: Win will win. So I am long Win.

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ἀρετή@PrettyNoice·
@Johnyom8 @aleabitoreddit He's betting on a 2 years and beyond cycle and aims at x5 MC from todays lows. There's no point in market timing now if you adhere to his thesis, just get in, sit on it and monitor for milestones and shortcomings around his arguments
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John
John@Johnyom8·
@aleabitoreddit Would you say now is a good time to enter? -12% today $SIVE
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Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
$SIVE at ~$400m MC is a name I genuinely believe... Institutions missed as the upstream laser chokepoint for hyperscalers. When you look at $TSEM following my thesis, the stock went up 70% to a $21B+ MC. Retail flows do not send NASDAQ stocks up $10B+. Information discovery and synthesis does. Especially when institutions validate it, and follow along. $SIVE was majority owned by Sweden retail investors, with **almost 0 institutional investors**. Now that information is distributed regarding the Upstream CW laser supplier for $MRVL, Ayar, Jabil, O-Net. And with $AVGO + other comments recently stating lasers were a clear bottleneck for supply chains: I strongly think that institutions are trying to accumulate off Swedish retail hands through Iceberg orders, vwap algos, or any other methods to gain exposure to the upcoming CW laser bottleneck. Again, the closest comparison to $SIVE are: $MTSI and $LITE, both at $18B and $55B MCs. Sivers trades at ~$400m MC. With architectural paradigm shifts in photonic supply chains: I think retail has a rare opportunity to frontrun institutions with $SIVE and have heavy exposure to the upcoming CW/EML laser bottleneck.
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ἀρετή@PrettyNoice·
@Jornka329996 @Wolfex_Yeat @Advoking @aleabitoreddit Makes data flow much faster, cheaper and cleaner than the current copper used in AI chips, think of it as a new threshold crossed efficiency-wise. As for their competitors, the difference is way too technical for me and I should get a physicist to break it down for me sometime
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