david reutter

10.7K posts

david reutter

david reutter

@ReutterDavid

retiredlushinahammock

Mogambo Bunker of Doom Entrou em Haziran 2020
248 Seguindo338 Seguidores
neyi kaybettiğini hatırla
neyi kaybettiğini hatırla@neyikaybettik·
Arjantin'in yahudi başkanı,birkaç ay önce sionistlerin Patagonya'da yakarken yakalandığı 100.000 hektarlık (gazze'nin 4 katı büyüklüğünde) orman arazisini israile resmi olarak tahsis etti. Mel Gibson'ın tahmini doğru çıktı,israil arjantine taşınıyor.
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david reutter
david reutter@ReutterDavid·
@josephwang so they want to spend the money they print it against the collateral held by banks overnight forever. another money printing scheme?
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Joseph Wang
Joseph Wang@josephwang·
Treasury seems to be considering investing excess TGA cash into repo. Doesn't seem to make much economic difference, but could marginally help funding markets in a scenario where the Fed's balance sheet continues to shrink.
Joseph Wang tweet media
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Peter Schiff
Peter Schiff@PeterSchiff·
Bond yields are falling a bit today on peace talks. But even if the war ends, the rise in bond yields won't. Soaring deficits, a falling dollar, rising inflation, and eroding confidence in the fiscal position of the U.S. will continue putting upward pressure on long-term yields.
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david reutter
david reutter@ReutterDavid·
@HorsePlayerNow whats Renegade doing? Tempo has a chance at the Triple Crown, but Renegade is probably favored the rest of the way.
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HorsePlayerNow.com
HorsePlayerNow.com@HorsePlayerNow·
Tough to listen to this and think Golden Tempo gets his Preak on. The discussion about cutting back in distance being a prohibitor when he won the 1-1/16 miles Lecomte feels like a tone being set. Decision to come perhaps Thursday.
Pat McAfee@PatMcAfeeShow

"We're gonna give Golden Tempo a couple of days and he's going to dictate the Preakness decision.. There's a lot of conversation right now and we're gonna do what's best for him" ~ @reredevaux #PMSLive

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david reutter
david reutter@ReutterDavid·
@pati_marins64 part two is Iran negotiating with itself. this is what secures their position in the global community. they make concessions on nuclear enrichment, while they obtain a weapon from outside sources, perhaps even someone like the French, as part of an oil deal.
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Patricia Marins
Patricia Marins@pati_marins64·
Part II added. There is no effective room for diplomacy.
Patricia Marins@pati_marins64

There is no effective room for diplomacy between U.S and Iran The war objectives articulated by Netanyahu and embraced by Donald Trump have always been clear: To decapitate the Iranian leadership, enabling a popular uprising that would install a new government handpicked by the US: The decapitation strategy, which in 2026 targeted high-ranking figures of the Revolutionary Guard and the Iranian cabinet, produced the exact opposite effect intended by planners in Washington and Tel Aviv. Instead of clearing the path for a new government, it created three fundamental deadlocks that killed any possibility of diplomacy. Dismantling the Iranian nuclear program: The decapitation strategy and direct attacks by the US and Israel created an “Ultimate Survival Dilemma.” For Tehran, the calculus is now purely existential, based on the bitter lessons learned from other nations that surrendered their nuclear programs only to be attacked. The American strategy was not only ineffective here but created concrete obstacles to future progress. This generates a perverse spiral: the more Iran accelerates its program to protect itself, the more Israel feels compelled to prevent the country from becoming a nuclear power. In other words, Israel is fighting a situation that Netanyahu himself, through his own personal project, has exacerbated. Limiting the missile program in quantity and range: For 2026 Iran, accepting limitations on the range and quantity of its missiles is seen as a strategic death sentence. With the Iranian air force obsolete against Israeli and US F-35s, ballistic and cruise missiles are Tehran’s only means to project power and ensure what they call “Deep Deterrence.” The attacks suffered by the country on February 28th only served to consolidate this conviction. Missile diplomacy is dead because neither side accepts the other’s definition of “balance.” Ending the funding of Iranian proxies: For the Iranian government in 2026, proxies (Hezbollah, Houthis, militias in Iraq and Syria) are not just allies, but what they call “Forward Defense” or the “Axis of Resistance”, crucial so far in Iran’s defense and deterrence strategy. In short, the war deepened the ties of interdependence between Iran and its proxies, making any negotiation regarding the end of funding a mere illusion. We are looking at a strategic failure responsible for closing the doors to any effective diplomacy in this conflict. The war not only failed to achieve any of these goals but consolidated the Iranian government’s power, vastly increased popular support for a robust missile program, and transformed the nuclear program, once a mere tool of deterrence, into a real necessity for the country’s own protection. Furthermore, it further solidified the relationship with its proxies. Israel has a legitimate concern regarding a potential Iranian nuclear weapon. After all, for decades the Iranian slogan “Death to Israel” has echoed, and obviously, no one sleeps soundly facing that. However, Netanyahu’s pretensions clearly went much further. During negotiations, the US was very close to a deal that would resolve the Iranian nuclear issue, but, alongside Israel, opted for a military offensive while still at the negotiating table. Netanyahu wanted to turn the action in Iran into a power project, where he would be the exponent of an “Israel Superpower,” as he himself declared shortly after the war began. In his mind, he believed he would be acclaimed as the warrior prince and victor of battles, morally above the Israeli law that is judging him and could put him behind bars. To Read the full article, join my Substack: open.substack.com/pub/global21/p…

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David Aragona
David Aragona@HorseToWatch·
One noteworthy thing about Golden Tempo's pre-Derby TimeformUS PPs, aside from his high Late Pace Rating, is the pace figure line for his final prep. It indicates that the Louisiana Derby was NOT the fast pace scenario that many assessed it to be. (Note lack of red color-code.)
David Aragona tweet media
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Andrew McLuhan
Andrew McLuhan@amicusadastra·
buy in scale up sell out
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Kenny Schmitt
Kenny Schmitt@fbwinners·
It's so glaring now that the picture is clear. Since the DQ of Medina Spirit, in 2021, the "Jet Fuel" has been empty on @KentuckyDerby day. No more re-break at the top of the lane. Those that used to keep on going like the energizer bunny, spit the bit now. Hmmmm
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Patricia Marins
Patricia Marins@pati_marins64·
Today, two U.S. destroyers transited the strait into the Persian Gulf without being harassed by the Iranians. It’s possible they will anchor in the Emirates to reinforce anti-aircraft defenses. And why didn't Iran stop these vessels? Because, by all indications, there is an agreement where Iran pretends nothing passes through the strait, and the U.S. pretends no Iranian ships are leaving the region. As I reported yesterday, about 25-35 Iranian ships loaded with oil bypassed the American blockade. Why? The U.S. priority is to maintain the flow of oil in the international market, and stopping Iranian exports would only worsen that. Obviously, this deal includes Iran quietly allowing the passage of several tankers. So, one side pretends to run a naval blockade against Iranian exports, while the other pretends the strait is closed to American military ships. Iran is the clear loser in this deal, giving Trump the argument that the operation freedom project, he claims to be implementing is actually opening the strait by force. Video ilustrativo
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david reutter
david reutter@ReutterDavid·
@Kathleen_Tyson_ @adamscochran highly unlikely but putting two high profile targets is the moment of highest risk, us ships are short of rations the at sea unrep is too dangerous. they are also short of ordinance i suspect which is why the military told trump to cool his jets. and it doesnt get easier
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Kathleen Tyson
Kathleen Tyson@Kathleen_Tyson_·
@adamscochran As one tanker was refuelling the other before the incident it might have been an inadvertent collision or other accident.
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Adam Cochran (adamscochran.eth)
We now know that at least two Air Force tankers suddenly broadcast an emergency signal over the Gulf this morning. Shortly after an Airforce Search and Rescue team was deployed and *ALL* 30 other tankers were grounded. It seems *very* likely that Iran shot down two US tankers.
The Hormuz Letter@HormuzLetter

BREAKING: No US Air Force tankers are currently airborne over the Middle East. This is highly unusual after more than 30 were active this morning, with two having squawked 7700 (general emergency) earlier today and their status still unknown. The tankers may have pulled back from the region, or all tankers have gone dark and turned off their ADS-B after the 2 incidents.

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david reutter
david reutter@ReutterDavid·
@tomthenekoo @distractedfilm there are 2 ways out of this. one is animation cut out the photograph, and two is to photograph a piece of art or an artistic (theatrical) event. in either case you're documenting the art. painting is an art b/c the artist meditates reality. its mcluhans making and matching.
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kia2
kia2@tomthenekoo·
@ReutterDavid @distractedfilm how does this make the film not an art? and we have found ways in the digital era to make images without cameras. hell, people like brakhage did way before.
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Distracted Film
Distracted Film@distractedfilm·
"Cinema is, today, an artistic and not philosophical language. It can be a parable, but never a directly conceptual expression. This is the third way of affirming the profoundly artistic nature of cinema, its expressive force, its power to embody the dream, that is its essentially metaphoric character. In conclusion all this should suggest that the language of cinema is fundamentally a 'language of poetry.'" - Pasolini
Distracted Film tweet media
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Keith Weiner
Keith Weiner@RealKeithWeiner·
Hiking interest rates is like hiking the min wage. It does not make businesses or workers more productive. It raises the hurdle rate, the bar. Any business or worker who is under the new, higher margin is rendered redundant.
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Stephen Gibbons
Stephen Gibbons@Gibboanxious·
Vertigo is NOT better than North By Northwest
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david reutter
david reutter@ReutterDavid·
@amicusadastra @signulll that's the dichotomy of the documentary film, two different styles of narrators. i think the documentary film may be the only real film. the story film is fiction reviewed for consumption.
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Andrew McLuhan
Andrew McLuhan@amicusadastra·
@signulll one of the most tragic casualties of the modern age is the ability to travel somewhere and discover it along the way instead of knowing everything about it first.
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signüll
signüll@signulll·
uh i think traveling is a bit too easy these days, we need to add back some friction somehow. ppl are casually doing 97 countries by the time they are like 25.
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david reutter
david reutter@ReutterDavid·
@marcello0609 @PaulMattiesJr we still have to anchor the Belmont, maybe the Arkansas derby is first, which is now 1.5M while Santa Anita is 1/2M. the fact that trainers come to CD with 3 races total must be put in the points system, a lot of green horses all over the track, a billion dollar rodeo.
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Paul Matties Jr
Paul Matties Jr@PaulMattiesJr·
What's the last year no horses from the Derby ran in the Preakness?
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david reutter
david reutter@ReutterDavid·
@leevalueroach not all debt is created equally. mortgage debt can be called, and what exactly was the bottom line in Weimar Germany?
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Lee Roach
Lee Roach@leevalueroach·
In a hyperinflationary environment, the single most important financial decision you can make, and the one almost nobody who lives through one is psychologically prepared to make, is to maximize fixed-rate, long-duration debt against productive assets, because the entire mechanism of hyperinflation is a wealth transfer from creditors to debtors, and the only question that matters, in the moment it begins, is which side of that transfer you have positioned yourself on. The math is brutal in its simplicity. If you owe a bank $400,000 at a 30-year fixed rate of 6%, and the currency loses 90% of its purchasing power over five years, you are, in real terms, paying back the bank in lottery tickets. The house you bought with that loan retains its real value, because it is a physical asset that the inflation cannot touch. The bank, which lent you future dollars and is now receiving past dollars, takes the loss. You take the gain. The transfer happens silently, invisibly, on the loan amortization schedule, every single month, while the people around you who saved in cash, held bonds, or refused on principle to take on debt watch their lifetime savings evaporate in real time. The Weimar industrialists who emerged from 1923 with their fortunes intact, and in many cases multiplied, were not the ones who hoarded gold or moved their assets to Switzerland. They were the ones who borrowed aggressively, in the local currency, at fixed rates, against factories and farms and apartment buildings, and let the inflation pay off the debt while they collected rents and revenues that repriced upward with the currency. The same pattern played out in Hungary in 1946, in Argentina in the 1980s, in Zimbabwe in 2008, and in every other major inflation event of the modern era. The borrowers won. The savers lost. The people in the middle, who tried to be cautious and hold cash and wait for clarity, were the ones whose lives were quietly destroyed. The reason almost nobody acts on this knowledge in advance is that the human brain treats debt as danger, and treats saving as safety, and these instincts are correct in stable monetary environments and exactly inverted in unstable ones. The middle class, which has been trained for generations to fear debt, is structurally the worst-positioned group when the currency starts to fail. The wealthy, who use leverage as a tool, and who hold the productive assets that the leverage was used to acquire, are structurally the best-positioned. The asymmetry is not an accident. It is the entire mechanism by which monetary debasement transfers wealth from one class to another, every time it has happened, in every country it has happened in, for as long as currencies have existed. You do not need to predict the timing. You need to structure your balance sheet, in the years before the event, in a way that benefits if it arrives. Fixed rate, long duration, productive assets. The trade has worked for 400 years. It will work for the next 400. Almost nobody will run it, because almost nobody is willing to be the person who took on debt while everyone they know was paying theirs down, which is, as it has always been, the entire reason the people who do run it end up owning everything on the other side.
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Andrew McLuhan
Andrew McLuhan@amicusadastra·
i wanna live like comment people
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