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#Munger 1)I rub my nose in my own mistakes 2)Try to keep it simple and fundamental 3)Margin of safety 4)Just try to avoid being stupid (than being smart) 5)Put them on "too hard" pile and leave them there 6)Accept Limitations ** @trengriffin @jasonzweigwsj @farnamjake1

@chamath @aniket_abncap Do you regret/think differently about that sweater ?

When your working life rewards you, it’s easy to ratchet up the complexity: homes, cars, travel, possessions etc. I have found that all that complexity comes at the sake of your most fleeting asset: your time. Instead of building things, all of a sudden you’re dealing with minutiae and logistics. Instead of talking mostly to engineers, you’re talking mostly to non-engineers. The building stops…the business of managing self inflicted complexity begins. It’s worth noting that the best players in the game (Buffett, Elon) have kept their life extremely basic, almost monastic/nomadic, as success ratcheted them ever higher. I think it’s the biggest secret hiding in plain sight: When the world upgrades your status, downgrade your complexity.

@raghavwadhwa Subodh ias huu is a iit delhi guy ? What a waste of life !

A Gmail ID was used to impersonate a Central PSU. Nobody questioned it. And ₹20,000 crore in govt tenders got rigged. Let me tell you the story of India's most absurd corruption case. Jal Jeevan Mission, PM Modi's flagship scheme to give tap water to every rural home. Rajasthan alone got ₹10,180 crore from the Centre in FY22 and ₹13,328 crore in FY23. Almost 23% of the entire national JJM budget went to one state. Two tubewell companies wanted these tenders. Problem? They had zero experience. Solution? They forged experience certificates of IRCON, a Railways PSU. Fake letterheads, fictitious officer names. And for verification, they created a Gmail ID pretending to be IRCON officials. A Central govt PSU under Ministry of Railways. Replying from @ gmail. com. Not .gov.in. Not .nic.in. Gmail. And nobody in the entire PHED department found this suspicious. Not one officer. Combined, these two firms filed 230+ tenders using these forged documents. But the real Bollywood moment? PHED sent an engineer to Kerala to "physically verify" IRCON's work. The contractors and a forger reached Kochi ONE DAY before him. Checked into Hotel Woodlark. The forger was introduced to the engineer as "Vijay Shankar, CEO, IRCON International." Random photos of pumphouses were submitted as proof. The contractor left his personal phone in Jaipur and used an employee's SIM card to avoid GPS tracking. The engineer came back and submitted a "positive verification report." Now here's the part that makes your blood boil. In June 2023, IRCON's own Vigilance Department wrote DIRECTLY to the Addl Chief Secretary Subodh Agarwal — "These certificates are fake and fabricated." What happened? The warning emails were deleted. Compliant engineers were handpicked to give false positive reports. Three separate legal notices were sent to the department. All ignored. But the scam wasn't just about fake certificates. That was just ₹960 crore. The bigger game was ₹20,000 crore. Agarwal introduced a rule — "Site Visit Certificates" mandatory for tenders above ₹50 crore. Sounds like transparency, right? It actually exposed which companies were bidding BEFORE tender opening. Once everyone knows who else is bidding, you form cartels. You fix prices. Tender premiums were inflated 30-40% across the board. The numbers: ₹20,000 crore in tenders rigged 30-40% inflated premiums, 4% bribery formula ₹47 crore seized by ED so far — 0.2% of the scam The fraud ran from 2021 to 2023 under the Congress govt in Rajasthan. IRCON warned in 2023. CBI filed an FIR in 2024. ED arrested the minister in 2025. Agarwal was finally caught this week — after being on the run for 2 months, evading 40+ ACB teams across 100 locations in 21 cities. JJM 2.0 just got approved. Budget: ₹8.69 lakh crore. The real question — has the system that enabled this actually changed? Or are we just funding the next scam on a bigger scale

@SyrianShabab @elonmusk what if this happens everywhere

This is the Al-Furqan neighbourhood in Aleppo—the number of solar panels is genuinely impressive.

@Sanjay__Bakshi Why would an intrinsic value professor look up to the short term momentum trader ?

The Concept of Drift Stanley Druckenmiller: “Invest in what will be great 18 months from now.” Source of inefficiency: The market prices what it sees today. In a recent lecture, I spoke about a similar same pattern — which I call “drift.” That name was given to me by a friend @ArankeRavi. Something fundamental changes about a business — sometimes gradually, sometimes suddenly — but the market takes time to recognize the change and re-price the stock accordingly. That’s drift. Drift arises from a simple human tendency. Market participants are anchored to what they already know - historical earnings, past growth rates, the old narrative. When the fundamentals shift, the market keeps looking in the rearview mirror. As I asked in the lecture: “Aage kya hoga?” - what will happen next? That’s the question that matters, not what happened before. Or, in Druckenmiller’s framing: on what the business will be 18 months from now, not on what the headline says today. Two forms of drift recur: 1.Gradual drift — The change happens slowly (like in boiling frog syndrome- a moat emerges over time, debt reduction from operating cash flow, operating leverage in a business with rising capacity utilisation etc), and because each quarterly data point moves only a little, the market never has a “wake up” moment. It just slowly catches up. 2.Sudden drift — A single event transforms the economics of the business overnight (for example, a merger between two companies -covered that in Shriram finance case study- that massively raises per share value), but the market, conditioned by the old regime, takes quarters or years to price in the new reality. Both forms create the same opportunity: a period during which the stock price has not yet caught up to the new intrinsic value. That window is often open for many months. Happened in IRFC case study, for example. Stocks mentioned here are not being recommended. Just illustrating the concept of drift as I understand it…

@MithunSarkari @Shashank1171 Does a strong RS mean earnings momentum ?

The Strong RS list : Today was a good day for mkts and many stocks were moving high but we must focus on the good stocks which are in strong earnings momentum with good future visibility . Here are 15 of them : 1. Aeroflex 2. Sterlite Tech 3. Mtar tech 4. Modern insulator 5. Kirloskar oil 6. Krishana phoschem 7. Axiscades tech 8. Rossell Techsys 9. Sansera Engg 10. Aditya Infotech 11. Anand Rathi wealth 12. Atlanta Electric 13. Groww 14. BSE 15. TVS motors Do study , and comment if u like any of them .

@Shashank1171 AR is richly valued compared to bigger peers ?

#ANANDRATHI wealth enjoys the simplicity premium. Feroze Azeez (Joint CEO) built a famous anti-complexity message: structured products as downside shield, equity for growth, avoid real estate & gold for wealth creation. Clear, repeatable, client-trusted. Risk: Fee based advisory.

@CEPE_IV @gotrice2024 It's his choice. QR code

@gotrice2024 Digital payments...QR code...

This man ordered some pizza for dinner. He knows delivery drivers don’t carry much money and he only had a $100 bill. So he called down and explained to them and the employee said it was fine. When the delivery driver came out with the food he says he can’t break a $100 and only has $15 on him. The man tries to explain that he only has the $100 and that he already spoke to someone at the shop. The man is now refusing to give the pizza back and suggests the driver takes the $100 and comes back with change but the driver said no, since it was a busy day. Should the man give the food back since he did try to pay and they declined his payment?

@sab_maya_hai__ great stuff. Will join next time in blr/chennai as out station now. All the best for this weekends

Unbelievable, but people are coming to meet me from Pune, Hyderabad, Chennai etc. on 2 days notice!

@moveorperish Wall sits/squats

What is your favorite exercise? Let me know in the comments! MOVE or DIE - Jakob

“A 40% rise in crude to $100/barrel could push raw material costs up by 20%, outpacing sales growth of 12% and compressing operating margins by 36%. For non-financials, core operating margins could fall from around 15% to 8%, risking outright earnings contraction,”

@EquityValueIn Flexicap ?

Kenneth Andrade Old Bridge Focused Equity fund March Portfolio Update , have put Feb one beside to compare the top holdings and changes disc: invested and biased in this from inception

@swarajk_ one year OIS indicates for the next year though

@wideclops barclays just pushed a note saying they're expecting the rbi to hold the rates for this year

"The one-year OIS is now 6.18%, well above the repo rate of 5.25%. The spread of ~90bps for a month—higher than the usual 50 bps—implying anticipations of atleast three rate hikes over the coming year" Doesn't look positive for equities!

Applied Materials expects its investments to catalyze wider ecosystem growth. “For every dollar we invest, we expect our suppliers to invest five times that amount.” Ecosystem Investment ! @somnath1978 @neelkanthmishra

Investment beneficiaries (developing story) would be - Asset managers (vs banks) - Cap Goods (vs utilities)., Power - Durables (vs Staples) ., Autos + housing - IT , Automation etc - Steel, Cement

"India’s gross capital formation currently stands at roughly 33 per cent of GDP. At India’s current GDP of approximately $4 trillion, reaching China’s peak investment intensity would require an additional $300 to $400 billion annually, sustained over at least a decade"

@jayantsinha : " When China passed through the $1,500 per capita range in the early 2000s, it sustained gross capital formation at 40-45 per cent of GDP for over a decade. By the time it crossed $3,000 around 2008, the results were visible"

Cheap power for some isn’t free—it’s a hidden tax. Discoms overcharge industry, governments patch with grants, and taxpayers bail out losses. Competitive populism in tariffs only shifts the burden, never erases it.

@arvindsubraman oped : Cross-subsidy in electricity is Orwellian: households pay below cost, while industry is taxed with inflated tariffs. Populist pricing hides the burden, but costs resurface as bailouts funded by future taxpayers. Distorted incentives, delayed pain.

@hjluks Beautiful thread sir Optionality is well established

Why I Train This Way at 62 1/ I’ve been an orthopedic surgeon for nearly 30 years, and over that time, I’ve watched something happen to many of my patients that isn’t dramatic or sudden, but ends up being far more consequential than any single injury or diagnosis.