MMD
7.1K posts

MMD
@ChadMMD
Financial Markets and Politics.



$2-4 trillion of Stable Coin will be issued on chain by 2030 based on estimates from several large institutions. Bitcoin is $68k at $308b of Stable Coin. Current ratio: Bitcoin price / stablecoin market cap = $68,000 / $308 billion ≈ $0.0002208 per dollar of stablecoin (or equivalently, ~$4,529 of stablecoin supply per $1 of Bitcoin price). • If this ratio holds constant (i.e., Bitcoin captures a similar share of growing ecosystem liquidity), then future Bitcoin price = current price × (future stablecoin supply / current stablecoin supply). Using the $2–4 trillion range for 2030 stablecoin supply: • Growth multiple: $2T / $308B ≈ 6.49x $4T / $308B ≈ 12.99x • Implied Bitcoin price: • Low end ($2T stablecoins): $68,000 × 6.49 ≈ $441,000 • High end ($4T stablecoins): $68,000 × 12.99 ≈ $883,000

















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📌NOTE: #Bitcoin is a network and ultimately follows an s-curve exponential type of adoption. A power-law fit on Bitcoin’s past price implicitly assumes: •volatility drops •cycle peaks flatten •returns diminish •growth rate decreases But if a new acceleration occurs, you get: •higher-than-expected volatility •larger-than-modeled price expansion •faster network growth than historical trend •a vertical shift in the log–log regression This breaks the model in the same way that: •smartphones broke internet penetration predictions •broadband broke dial-up forecasts •mobile broke PC internet adoption curves The “outer forcing” of a new S-curve segment invalidates a single power-law fit. As @saylor used to say: „All your models will be destroyed.“









