above
3.7K posts

above
@CryptoAbove
its not shitposting if its true
Присоединился Eylül 2021
1.3K Подписки288 Подписчики

@Polymarket worried about blocking kanye when they should be worried about un-blocking the strait
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at this point the oil market should worry more about Zelenskyy needing attention than the strait of hormuz
x.com/WarMonitor3/st…
WarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧@WarMonitor3
Ukrainian drones have hit a massive oil depot in the port of Novorossiysk Russia.
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@HayekAndKeynes wow an actual nuanced view of the situation, crazy how rare those are on this site
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My base case last week was a Trump withdrawal, with the rest of the world stepping in to stabilize. This was the best possible path out of this situation in my humble opinion.
It does look like Trump tested that path. He signaled a pullback while implicitly expecting NATO and a broader coalition to secure the strait. They utterly failed to deliver. The UK was one of the few willing to actually engage militarily. Parts of Eastern Europe showed some willingness, but with limited capacity. Core Western/Central Europe leaned the other direction—more open to negotiated access (including tolerating things like Iranian-imposed tolls) rather than using force. This left Trump quite frustrated and forced to go it alone. There was no coalition of the willing. Only the fears of the timid.
Iran, for its part, has played this stage tactically well. By selectively allowing passage for “neutral” vessels, they’ve created an off-ramp that reduces urgency for collective action. Countries were heavily incentivized. That weakened coalition formation.
So now the decision set narrows: either force the issue and reopen Hormuz, escalate kinetically on the way out. Both paths carry the same underlying risk: short-term disruptions morph into a structurally longer outages if strikes extend to Iranian supply or spill over into broader Gulf infrastructure via retaliation.
I hoped deeply (maybe even to the point of delusion) we could avoid that path. There is still time for a deal but I don’t think Trump will just walk away at this point. TACO is a funny little phrase designed to irritate Trump but any serious observer should recognize there has been very little sign of cowardice in his second administration. He is focused on bringing his vision of the world to life.
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@squatsons iran slowing missle launchers and letting more ships through the strait, seems like they're losing leverage to me
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Can someone inform Trump that 48 hours from April 4th would be the 6th, or Monday.
We love shifting goal posts.

ayden@squatsons
Another 48 hour deadline. Last couple of time a deadline expired he pretended like negotiations were happening and extended it.
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y'all need to chill with the fairy tales of how 'fanatical' the irgc are, this is clearly haram
x.com/nypost/status/…
New York Post@nypost
Today’s cover: Niece, grandniece of slain notorious Iranian Gen. Soleimani arrested by ICE while enjoying lavish lifestyles in LA trib.al/hYWNEXN
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i will never forgive netflix for cancelling mindhunter and replacing it with endless slop
x.com/_m0stardently/…
hannah☾@_m0stardently
never forget what david fincher took from us. DAVID FINCHER I WILL FIND YOU.
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