Ken Duke

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Ken Duke

Ken Duke

@DukeInvests

Investing in stocks, startups and real estate. Weekend philosopher. @univmiami alum. #umiami

North Palm Beach, FL Присоединился Ağustos 2025
814 Подписки240 Подписчики
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Dr. Julie Gurner
Dr. Julie Gurner@drgurner·
Take the risk, say the things you want to say, try to build the life you really want to have. Life comes & goes very quickly. In a blink of an eye, it's gone... You might as well go for what you want.
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Ken Duke
Ken Duke@DukeInvests·
Dear @Opendoor Management (@nejatian), As an investor, I'm still trying to understand what the gross margin potential is for $OPEN in five to seven years? I’ve heard Opendoor likened to Carvana (which has ~20% gross margins), and I’ve also heard Kaz describe it as the “Amazon of real estate” (which has ~50% gross margins). I recently saw on Reddit where Kaz said you're aiming for 5-7% contribution margins on home sales. With the tight margins in iBuying, it seems it would be difficult to approach $CVNA margin levels, let alone $AMZN. So, where will the margins come from? I keep hearing “services,” but which services specifically? The services being contemplated seem like they might have either low percentage margins (example: mortgages at 4.99%) or relatively small dollar margins compared with the overall revenue generated from home sales. In other words, services may not be enough to drastically improve blended GM. In short, where is the business headed on a blended margin basis? Perhaps it’s too early to know, but are their any educated guesses?
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Ken Duke
Ken Duke@DukeInvests·
Dear @opendoor (cc @nejatian @morganb @dangreenoh) I'm a shareholder and genuinely bullish on Opendoor's ability to disrupt real estate transactions, but disruption and profitability are two very different things, and I'd love some clarity on the path to the latter. Here's what I'm wrestling with: IBuying is inherently a thin margin business, and you've been transparent about wanting to be a high-velocity market maker with tight spreads. I respect that vision. But the math only works if ancillary services — title, escrow, mortgage — carry real margin weight. As far as I can tell, that's always been the thesis for why the bundle matters. I've read your mortgage rate explanation, and I get the vision. You're doing to mortgage what E*TRADE did to stock trading and TurboTax did to taxes — eliminating the legacy cost structure through automation and AI, and passing those savings to buyers instead of pocketing them. That's a compelling consumer proposition! But here's my question as a shareholder: if IBuying runs on thin margins by design, and mortgage is structured to pass savings to consumers rather than generate margin for Opendoor, where does the meaningful margin actually come from? Title and escrow help at the edges, but I'm struggling to see what the high-margin wedge is in the long-term model. A few specific things I'd love management to address: 1. Is the thesis that Opendoor ultimately succeeds as a high-volume, single-digit gross margin business, and if so, what does the unit economics picture look like at scale? 2. Will mortgages be held on the balance sheet or sold? That changes the risk and return profile significantly. 3. Is there a future services layer — beyond title, escrow, and mortgage — that's intended to be a genuine profit center? I'm bullish on the team and the model, but I want to understand the explicit plan for how margin builds over time, not just how costs come down for consumers. Would appreciate hearing management's long-term margin architecture laid out plainly. I don't think I'm the only shareholder asking. Sincerely, $OPEN Shareholder
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Ken Duke
Ken Duke@DukeInvests·
In an attempt to simplify my previous letter to $OPEN management and generate a response, I'm restating my inquiry into two simple questions: What is the gross margin potential for $OPEN in seven years? I’ve heard Opendoor likened to Carvana (which has ~20% gross margins), and I’ve also heard Kaz describe it as the “Amazon of real estate” (which has ~50% gross margins). With the tight margins in iBuying, it seems it would be difficult to approach $CVNA levels, let alone $AMZN. Where will the margins come from? I keep hearing “services,” but which services specifically? The services being contemplated seem like they might have either low percentage margins (for example, mortgages at 4.99%) or relatively small dollar margins compared with the overall revenue generated from home sales. In a nutshell: where are we headed on a blended margin basis? Perhaps it’s too early to know, but there must be some educated guesses.
Ken Duke@DukeInvests

Dear @opendoor (cc @nejatian @morganb @dangreenoh) I'm a shareholder and genuinely bullish on Opendoor's ability to disrupt real estate transactions, but disruption and profitability are two very different things, and I'd love some clarity on the path to the latter. Here's what I'm wrestling with: IBuying is inherently a thin margin business, and you've been transparent about wanting to be a high-velocity market maker with tight spreads. I respect that vision. But the math only works if ancillary services — title, escrow, mortgage — carry real margin weight. As far as I can tell, that's always been the thesis for why the bundle matters. I've read your mortgage rate explanation, and I get the vision. You're doing to mortgage what E*TRADE did to stock trading and TurboTax did to taxes — eliminating the legacy cost structure through automation and AI, and passing those savings to buyers instead of pocketing them. That's a compelling consumer proposition! But here's my question as a shareholder: if IBuying runs on thin margins by design, and mortgage is structured to pass savings to consumers rather than generate margin for Opendoor, where does the meaningful margin actually come from? Title and escrow help at the edges, but I'm struggling to see what the high-margin wedge is in the long-term model. A few specific things I'd love management to address: 1. Is the thesis that Opendoor ultimately succeeds as a high-volume, single-digit gross margin business, and if so, what does the unit economics picture look like at scale? 2. Will mortgages be held on the balance sheet or sold? That changes the risk and return profile significantly. 3. Is there a future services layer — beyond title, escrow, and mortgage — that's intended to be a genuine profit center? I'm bullish on the team and the model, but I want to understand the explicit plan for how margin builds over time, not just how costs come down for consumers. Would appreciate hearing management's long-term margin architecture laid out plainly. I don't think I'm the only shareholder asking. Sincerely, $OPEN Shareholder

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Ken Duke
Ken Duke@DukeInvests·
Love this principle…. “Truth > Comfort. I'd rather live in reality than be comforted by stories.”
Kaz Nejatian@nejatian

In our chat @bhalligan asked me to talk about my principles. We talked about the top two, but I thought I should share with you the top 5. Here they are: nejatian.com/principles I only write down principles where I think I am meaningfully different than other folks. I write these down to remind myself of the key lessons I need to apply. I find it helpful to always keep these in my personal context window.

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Ken Duke
Ken Duke@DukeInvests·
@HedgeFundFomo Simple strategy…keep doubling the size of your bet each time until you have a winner. You ultimately can’t lose this way.
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Ken Duke
Ken Duke@DukeInvests·
@happychiguy @Opendoor @nejatian @morganb @dangreenoh They seem to be saying that it’s more like breakeven than a loss leader, but either way, that’s exactly what I want to know—where will the profits eventually come from? Presumably other services, but which ones, and is there enough margin in those services to carry the company.
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Ken Duke
Ken Duke@DukeInvests·
@NextTenBagger @Opendoor @nejatian @morganb @dangreenoh Agreed. Mostly wondering if that eventually looks like 10, 20 or 30% GM and where they see it coming from? Maybe they don’t know yet, which would be a fair answer, but would make me a bit more cautious about position size.
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10X Investments
10X Investments@NextTenBagger·
@DukeInvests @Opendoor @nejatian @morganb @dangreenoh Amazon wasn’t profitable for the first 20+ years of their existence. We’re waiting on this view to shape for $OPEN but I have no doubt that they are going to find ways to improve their GM meaningfully over the next year+
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Ken Duke
Ken Duke@DukeInvests·
@usppdd @RandianCapital @Opendoor @nejatian @morganb @dangreenoh The Amazon of real estate is an interesting/exciting analogy, but AMZN has 48% gross margins. $OPEN has single digit gross margins, and that’s what’s at the heart of my question. What will OPEN GMs look like in 5 years? I know it won’t be 40%+, but will it still be single digits?
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Ken Duke
Ken Duke@DukeInvests·
@NextTenBagger @Opendoor @nejatian @morganb @dangreenoh Been thinking about this for months—reading 10Ks, articles, etc. Deciding if I want to size up in OPEN (5-7 year hold). I want to understand where the margins will come from. I’ve heard Kaz say “the Amazon of real estate.” AMZN has 48% gross margins. Any helpful insights on GM?
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Benji Cobblestone
Benji Cobblestone@BenjCobble·
Top 5 number of beers: 1: 8 2: 5 3: 10 4: 1 5: 3
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