ElekNBA

Merry Christmas! Let's have a free pick! 1u Deandre Ayton over 12.5 pts -115 hardrock, -125 betonline, draftkings, bovada, -129 caesars, -130 FD First graph, there is only one game with both Luka, Bron, and Ayton, where Ayton played over 29 minutes, it was vs Toronto, where we had over. He covered the line. But I chose to put the graph with Ayton's performances with higher minutes because Hayes is out for the Lakers Vanderbilt is the type of player that should be legit unplayable vs the Rockets, so that's why I think Ayton should have increased minutes. Lakers have Kleber too, but he isn't a high usage or high minutes player Houston allows centers to score; they are allowing the 7th most in the league. Their defense is more oriented toward denying ball movement and catch-and-shoot. DFS debuting for the Rockets means their perimeter defense will be even better. Eason played several games since he recovered from injury too, so Ayton should get more usage tonight as Lakers should struggle from the outside

Update on the group: the month started solid. It's still a long way to get into the green zone

1u Reed Sheppard over 10.5 points -104 FD, -105 betonline, -105 mgm Reed had 4-game under streak before going over vs the Mavs. One of the main reasons was lower usage in games s Sac and Jazz. But his usage is back in 20% Agaisnt Suns he had 11 fga. 4 out of 5 of those games were blowouts. LAC is bad this year and could get blown out, but i think L2 games are good usg trend for Reed in a favorable matchup LAC allows 2nd most pull-up pts ( 36% of Reed pts) and 5th most catch and shoot (44% of Reed pts). That's 80% of Reed pts While the Clippers allow catch and shoot, they aren't doing that by allowing many corner threes (which isn't something Reed shoots a lot - 11% of his pts). Aaron Holiday, Jabari Smith, and Okogie are more frequent there. LAC allows above-the-break three though: most in the league, and those threes are Reed's main scoring zone, 50% of his points, and he is the highest volume atb shooter on the team

Writeup gonna be shit but 1u Ben Mathurin over 21.5 pts -115 bovada, hardrock, -118 DK, -120 mgm, -125 FD Mathurin finally had a game going over vs the Bulls. While he shot above-average for 3pt that game, it should make him more confident. today Indiana is going against Sacramento, the worst paint defense in the league Sacramento has Keegan, but he should guard Siakam. Not a single playtype from which Mathurin scores frequently is not guarded well by Sacramento. Sacramento defense isnt much improved with Raynaud on the court, as he is just a rookie - still 120 defensive rating

1u Deandre Ayton over 15.5 pts -102 FD, -113 DK, -107 betrivers, -114 betonline Luka Doncic is out and Lebron is in. Lebron this year looks like he lost a step, and that age is catching him up While Toronto is good defense overall, they allow 6th most pts at the rim, 9th most pnr irm rolls, 11th most (below average) 10 ft or closer (which is 81% of Ayton pts. Without Luka, Ayton had 4 out of 4 overs with 21 pts average and in 3 out of 4 games he had 15+ fga. Reaves showcased he can be a capable playmaker in those games without Luka, having 9, 5 and 16 ast. Last year he had 6 ast average with Lebron in and Luka out