Knight

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Knight

Knight

@KnightPredict

Prediction Markets Researcher & Analyst Member @zscdao

Alpha Caller Присоединился Ocak 2022
499 Подписки1.6K Подписчики
Knight
Knight@KnightPredict·
@metaproph3t Um, I'm sorry, but I think it just got worse! now everyone can deposit as much money as want, and then make a refund!
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Knight
Knight@KnightPredict·
@PolymarketStory @pizzintwatch According to OSINT trackers, orders at establishments like Pizza Toe Pizza and the closest Papa John's to the Pentagon and Langley (CIA) increased 8-10 times from the norm for a Sunday evening.
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Knight
Knight@KnightPredict·
@polyfactual sounds interesting! It really needs to be analyzed
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Polyfactual
Polyfactual@polyfactual·
2 weeks ago, fake “insiders” aped into the "Netanyahu out by March 31" market. The market has since seen almost $84 million in volume. It was driven almost entirely by unverified rumors on X We flagged it as a bond at 8% odds. Even now, you could park $10k and still clip $40 The takeaway: X optimizes for attention, not truth, mispricing like this will be in abundance throughout 2026. There’s a playbook here. Worth breaking down.
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Polyfactual@polyfactual

Great bond opportunity

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Knight
Knight@KnightPredict·
@shmidtqq interesting information! saved it
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shmidt
shmidt@shmidtqq·
💡Google Sheets > 99% of paid betting dashboards. How to turn regular Google Sheets into a smart betting terminal. Came across a great setup: the author got tired of ai bots (like claude) writing beautiful frontends but being useless on the backend, so he wrote his own Apps Script for the NBA. Key insights from the thread: /// Data > Emotions. The script pulls real time odds from polymarket and draftkings, injury reports, and team history. /// Math is the language of money. The sheet is packed with custom metrics like sigma404 and matrix64, which give way more depth than basic bookmaker stats. /// AI as an assistant, not an oracle. There's a "calls" tab where ai agents provide forecasts based on all the collected data. But the author drops a golden rule: "Thoughtlessly following other people's forecasts can drain your bankroll. Think with your own head". If you want to play around with code and automation via a free Google Sheets setup, this is a must read.
m|i|ster@MisterNoComents

x.com/i/article/2038…

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m|i|ster
m|i|ster@MisterNoComents·
🚨 Net profit in 7 days: $260,871. Two weeks ago, I showed a betting specialist earning $4,200 a month his own betting model, and now he's quit his job. He studied the architecture, downloaded his dataset from the article, created a terminal with Claude's help, and is now making money. He earned $260,871.17 in a week. He didn't use magic. He exploited market inefficiencies. The spreadsheet I gave him isn't a tracker, but an automated +EV (expected value) engine. Here's how he beat everyone else: He compared his pace-adjusted predictions with real-time odds, using the =IMPORTXML() function to aggregate data from Pinnacle's live lines. To find the true edge, he used the custom function =NORMDIST(), transforming standard deviation models for individual player bets into exact implied probabilities. True alpha returns were achieved by identifying unaccounted for correlated parlays. He constructed a covariance matrix using array formulas such as =MMULT() and =TRANSPOSE(). When a late-game injury dramatically altered a team's player usage rate, the spreadsheet revealed huge discrepancies in weak inside bets. Guided strictly by the fractional Kelly Criterion, calculated using the formula =IF(Edge>0, ((Odds*Edge)-1)/(Odds-1), 0), he optimized his bankroll to decimal places. By tying his strategy to this mathematical growth formula, he ensured that he was taking on risk proportional to his edge. He wasn't gambling. He was mathematically arbitraging. He started testing it ten days ago. Last week, the compounding effect reached critical mass. $260,871.17 in net profit. He just submitted his resignation to management. His profile and copytrade are here: ares.pro/wallets/0xcb6e…
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m|i|ster@MisterNoComents

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Atlantis liquidity
Atlantis liquidity@Atlantislq·
I MADE $32,800 TRADING ON POLYMARKET THIS MONTH I look for overheated, headline-driven markets and take the side I believe is mispriced I’m not some pro trader and I don’t use advanced terminals just public news sources and my own judgment keep learning more.
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Knight
Knight@KnightPredict·
@Polymarket This is a coordinated action by the Quartet (Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey) aimed at preventing the war from turning into a "nuclear or total blackout" of the region.
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Polymarket
Polymarket@Polymarket·
JUST IN: Pakistan says they are ready to facilitate peace talks between the U.S. and Iran in the coming days.
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Atenov int.
Atenov int.@Atenov_D·
DeepSeek V4 benchmarks are leaking. The numbers are beating Claude Opus and GPT-5.3 Unconfirmed. Unverified. But the sources call them conservative. > What's leaking. ~200B parameter Lite version. 1M token context window. Multimodal - text, images, video. Scales to 1 trillion parameters via mHC architecture. HumanEval ~90%. SWE-bench above 80%. Coding performance above V3.2 and every current competitor. The people sharing these numbers say they're holding back the real figures. > Why it hasnt shipped. Originally February - Lunar New Year. Then the week of March 2-3. Then April. Now coming soon with NDA at select providers and no official date. Multiple postponements, classic pre-release pattern. > The trade Every leak moves the market. Every delay is a re-entry point. Every credible announcement pushes YES higher. This is a textbook speculative story - the kind where you position early and let the news flow do the work. Buy YES on the DeepSeek V4 release market. Ride the rumor cycle. Best place to do it - ProbTrade.
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Atenov int.@Atenov_D

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banana0x
banana0x@banan_crypto·
No Sports Market Will Ever Be Bond Ones Ppl believe there are sports events with a 100% outcome But today’s case on UFC market proves such events don't exist in this niche @Polymarket trader bought Tybura shares at 99c worth of $110K And he lost all his money in a few seconds He bought shares after the winner had already been announced But the judges made a mistake And after just a few seconds, they announced another fighter as the official winner His shares went to zero This trader lost all the profit he had made before in a single bet That's what happens when you’re overconfident in a specific outcome in a sports event
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Said@said116dao

Wow! This trader turned $670 into $67,000! 100x or 10,000% with just one bet Initially, Bruce Buffer announced that Tybura had won the fight, and the price immediately jumped to 99с, at that moment, a trader bought Tyrrel Fortune for 1с A few seconds later, the referee apologized and announced that Tyrrel Fortune had won! And its price has changed by 1%–100% [His profile] - ares.pro/wallets/0x9b97…

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Qwerty 🧀
Qwerty 🧀@qwerty_ytrevvq·
"Madrid already paid me $35 today. I asked for more" > closed "no" on 12°C - profit > entered "yes" on 13°C - waiting for another $27 hope it turns into $62 in one day from the weather of a city i haven’t even been to yet spain, see you soon: #X9QYlEd" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/event/highest-…
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Qwerty 🧀@qwerty_ytrevvq

+$35 on Madrid weather "Haven’t even been to Spain yet - but Madrid is already paying me" see you soon, Spain

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Knight
Knight@KnightPredict·
@0xMovez The results are really amazing!
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Movez
Movez@0xMovez·
Anthropic dev turned $300 → $91K using upcoming Claude Mythos model on Polymarket weather markets No code. All he did is sent one MIT research: "Weather forecasting using ML models" Mythos model started to predict super-rare weather events {0.01¢ - 0.1¢} The result is crazy: 25$ → 12,452$ 16$ → 8,106$ 13$ → 6,851$ model trades a wide range of regions from Tokyo to Ankara only thing that matters is 0.01¢ - 0.1¢ range. bot profile: polymarket.com/profile/%40Col… Pinned research that was sent as a prompt below ↓
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StacyOnChain
StacyOnChain@stacyonchain·
Trump says "X" -> Traders make $Y It’s not a joke. Donald Trump is currently the single most profitable volatility indicator on the planet. While retail is desperately waiting for altseason, smart money is watching Trump's press conferences with Polymarket open. How to monetize the rhetoric: 1. Trump mentions a buzzword (e.g., Bitcoin, Tariffs, Middle East). 2. Retail panics and wildly overreacts. The odds violently spike to 80-90% probability. 3. Whales immediately short the overreaction, knowing Trump uses hyperbole and things will cool down in 48 hours. Do not overreact Panic is your friend Trade the Strait of Hormuz chaos here: 👉 #qUpUd60" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/event/strait-o… Stop ignoring the real market drivers
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shtanga0x
shtanga0x@shtanga0x·
Polymarket generously rewards those who are full skin in the game Today, @verrissimus hit his first 100x He didn't gamble. Didn't hope for luck. Didn't cheat He was just closely watching the UFC event And when he saw an opportunity, he took a position at $0.01 When everyone saw it, it was too late: > Shares had already pumped to $1 > That trader had fixed his position at +10,000% profit Stay focused on what you're doing
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Verrissimus@verrissimus

Hit my first 100x on Polymarket! $670 → $67,000 but here's the crazy part: I almost bought Tybura at 99¢ with $100k. stopped, realized something was off. cancelled my order, scooped up 1c shares instead. the UFC corrected the winner seconds later. easiest 100x ever

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Knight
Knight@KnightPredict·
@VoidReader_ This trader has read the market perfectly
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VoidReader
VoidReader@VoidReader_·
$248,338 on S&P 500 Trader clearly found his edge 4,465 trades with a 63.5% win rate That’s serious consistency Best trade $135,172 just on one market Told you these markets will keep growing More money, more attention, more opportunity Early stage is where the edge is Find the right wallets and just watch how they play
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Gorynich☄️
Gorynich☄️@Kropanchik·
I tracked every wallet betting Bitcoin crashes before 2027 Four markets. Four levels. Same players everywhere. LucasMeow - @lucasmeow?r=kropanchik#drup7kz" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@lucasmeow?r=k… > 50K NO shares at ↓$20K and ↓$15K simultaneously someone2026 - @someone2026?r=kropanchik#62flMIo" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@someone2026?r… > 30K NO across three markets justdance - @justdance?r=kropanchik#9Aldrom" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@justdance?r=k… > NO positions in all four levels at once These aren't traders They're parking capital at near-certainty odds across multiple markets But then there's Bitcoinchadwins @bitcoinchadwins?r=kropanchik#rAbMrxv" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@bitcoinchadwi… 62,304 YES shares at ↓$25K The single largest bear bet across all four markets Bitcoin would need to drop 73% from here Someone genuinely believes that And Chet1977 is in both ↓$25K and ↓$30K YES @chet1977?r=kropanchik#lO6zDzK" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@chet1977?r=kr… A cascading bear thesis with real money behind it Two completely different strategies Playing the same set of markets At the same time I already placed my trades via ratio.you/r/H8KPKMBB The NO side is running a yield farm The YES side is running a doomsday hedge Which wallet would you copy?
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Knight
Knight@KnightPredict·
@KobeissiLetter The Philippines is heavily dependent on logistics. When the cost of a barrel increases, the mechanism of secondary effects is activated: 1. Transport collapse 2. Food inflation 3.BSP rate
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The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter·
BREAKING: Inflation in the Philippines is now set to average 5.1% in 2026 amid surging oil prices and their recently declared "energy emergency," per FT. The Philippines imports 95% of its crude oil and is now facing its biggest energy crisis in history.
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Knight
Knight@KnightPredict·
🚨Kreo is dropping updates non-stop! February - major copy trading upgrade March - Auto Trade, Priority Mode (Zero delay) And today - Charts! Interactive Up/Down crypto market charts built right into the app. View the chart → trade instantly No more switching tabs - everything in one place Want to test it right away? t.me/KreoPolyBot?st…
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Kreo@kreoapp

Charts on Telegram. 📊 1⃣ View charts smoother than anywhere else 2⃣Buy & Sell and see updates live on chart 3⃣Filter only what you want to see The first product to it always. 🏆

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Bober_smart
Bober_smart@Bober_smart·
GOOGLE SHEETS -> POLYMARKET -> $10,000 > I built an automated Google Sheet that collects
NBA odds from Polymarket. > It pulls player injury statuses, past team results, and advanced stats using Sigma404, Matrix16, Matrix64, And_Or, Combined Away formulas. > Al agents in the Calls tab analyze odds, lineups, and form to recommend bets with reasoning. > Tabs cover current matches, player status, past results, statistics, and Al forecasts for quick informed decisions. > Free setup: copy the provided Apps Script code, add a free ODDS_APIKEY, and run initialSetup for hourly automated updates. IT'S FREE, BOOKMARK THIS.
m|i|ster@MisterNoComents

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Leshuk
Leshuk@leshuuuk·
Trader turned $891 into $28.5K on weather bets on Polymarket He made over $3.4K last month by trading only weather markets Buy cheap -> wait for pump to 45% -> take profit His strategy actually works: $21 -> $1671 $10 -> $934 $8 -> $917 He has dozens of wins like these, not just 3 Today is March 29, and he’s already bet on the highest temperature in Miami on April 1 Btw, he also enters at 95% odds to make some almost risk-free profit Profile: @neobrother?r=leshuk#hEtzMIv" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@neobrother?r=… Copy his trades: t.me/PolyGunSniperB…
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