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VoidReader
1.5K posts
VoidReader
@VoidReader_
Trading narratives on @Polymarket DAO member @zscdao
Katılım Temmuz 2021
26 Takip Edilen1.5K Takipçiler
@VoidReader_ @Polymarket It's a risky market if you aren't familiar with them
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𝐐𝐰𝐞𝐧 = 𝐀𝐥𝐢𝐛𝐚𝐛𝐚, who takes the top spot among Chinese AI
@Polymarket has a market on which Chinese company ranks 1st on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard by end of September
Alibaba (thats Qwen) has been leading for weeks, 60% → 74% in just days after the Qwen3.7 release
The only real threat here is DeepSeek, they have a major V4 update coming and the market only gives them 7% right now
Taking a small Yes position on DeepSeek and waiting for the release, even a jump to top 2 could mean 3-4x on the position without needing the #1 spot
My read is Alibaba still closes it out on top, so if you want the safe route just take the 74% and move on 👀
VoidReader@VoidReader_
Looks like the market is misreading the AI Arena rules The rules say that a model only needs to reach the top spot temporarily. It does not have to stay there until the final calculation, one appearance in the required ranking is enough What’s interesting is the huge spread in current predictions. For example, Qwen 3.7 is only ranked #11 right now, but the predicted range goes from #4 to #24 We have already seen a similar situation with the Top 10 market. No model had entered the top 10 yet, but Polymarket was pricing the chances at almost 99%, because a single appearance was enough Right now, Top 5 is trading around 50/50, but I think the market is underestimating the chance of a major release from Moonshot AI. One strong launch could quickly push the model into the top The market seems to price this as if a model needs to hold the position until the end. But according to the rules, it only needs one moment These kinds of mispricings are often where the best opportunities appear @Polymarket
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@smaaaaliy @Polymarket At one time actively used DeepSeek, they are cool, if you use them for free, many requests
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@VoidReader_ @Polymarket chinese ai models are complete uncharted territory for me, i haven't used a single one of them
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@EagleVisions @Polymarket Thanks, I think it’ll be fine and I’ll lock in my 2-3x
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@VoidReader_ @Polymarket it's definitely a risky, but the upcoming release could completely change everything, good luck man
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Made +$72 on NVIDIA becoming the largest company in July
Crazy day for stock markets with $AAPL losing the battle after Q3 earnings.
Had a small chat with a smart guy who backed NVIDIA "YES" at 15c.
I liked his take, but decided to just follow the news and prepare for next month.
Ended up entering after Apple started free falling. Was a good trade!
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@0xKorens @futuredotnews Very strong terminal, started using it myself
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This weather bot has made over 27,000 predictions since April
Its total profit - $12,400 for 4 month
The most interesting part - its resolution win rate is just 7%, according to data from @futuredotnews
The bot's approach:
→ tiny trade sizes, $2-3 per trade
→ entry price 1-10¢
He's not trying to be right often - he's trying to be right cheap
At 1-10¢, a single win pays for dozens of losse
Volume does the rest - 27,000 shots at longshot odds turns into $12,400
This isn't prediction. It's math played at scale
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@VoidReader_ interesting sector spread, but it requires a strict stop-loss
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+137,317$ on Polymarket Perps in a single day. What do you think?
The #1 all-time Polymarket Perps trader has now made over $540k
Trader2121 has generated more than $3.7B in trading volume
He's actively shorting most major stocks, including Apple and Amazon
At the same time, he's long Nvidia, likely betting on a rebound after the recent 5% drop
Perps code: 00i3mwms
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@smaaaaliy I didn't follow this market, does Trump hate Putin a lot?
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Can't believe it... an actual fair resolution after all those disputes
Clarification came through confirming my point, calling Putin a "difficult character" doesn't count as an insult
The market moved instantly: from 70% to 4%
A completely logical and expected outcome, gg everyone
Smaliy@smaaaaliy
Another loud dispute on Polymarket: did Trump insult Putin? During the NATO summit presser with Zelensky, Trump called Putin a "difficult character" Some argue it’s a negative tone, others say there was zero aggressive intent To me it’s just stating a fact about negotiation friction As usual traders on discord are being emotional rather than using common sense I’m backing No here, what about you?
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@mmoyshaa At one time, fans only 5 minutes in the markets of the beat
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24% Win Rate
12,000 trades
+$3,891 PnL
Formula:
(R:R × discipline × BTC volatility) = profit
Almost every trade comes from 5-minute BTC markets
Most people would expect a 24% Win Rate account to be dead
Instead it survived 12,000 trades, paid thousands of fees, and still finished green
A good reminder that Win Rate is only half of the story
The size of the winners matters too
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@VoidReader_ i was watching his wallet the whole week
win rate is not the greatest tbh
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@smaaaaliy The same trader who did not cheat that he earns money
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@VoidReader_ it feels like he was kept locked away for years and with the launch of perps the kraken has been finally released
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@0xKorens Like those markets in general, have grown a little for me
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@0xKorens The weather is still impressive, I'm just pouring into these markets
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On July 23 in Dallas, one trader turned $128 ⮕ $713 with a single trade on a weather market
He entered the position the morning before, with an avg. buy of 18¢
He called the Dallas high temperature landing between 96-97°F
Trade:
[$128.95 ⮕ $713.12 - Dallas 96-97°F, Jul 23 - Yes at 18.1¢]
He held the position all the way through, and on the 24th it settled a 4x
Looking at his other positions, there's a clear pattern in trade size and range:
→ avg. entry price: 30¢
→ avg. size per trade: $150
→ avg. exit price: 99.9¢
He's not chasing 10x lottery tickets on every trade
He's found one range where the forecast is confident enough to buy cheap, and he sizes up when the setup repeats - same entry zone, same discipline, trade after trade
One night's patience, one clean range, one clean 4x
Korens@0xKorens
This trader turned $42 into $4.34k trading weather markets in Cape Town in just 6 hours It started on July 20 at 3 PM - he began building a small position: [“Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on July 20?”] - YES at 0.9¢ Throughout the day, the probability was estimated at 33% Then at 3 PM, the probability suddenly dropped to just 0.6%. That's when the trader started acting He waited a few hours and cashed out his trade Before this trade, he had made just $220 in profit that month One anomaly. One correct decision. And you make $4,000
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@OleksjK1 Polymarket in this regard gives an amazing opportunity to combine everything in one place. Honestly, I haven’t seen anywhere else where you could take a futures position on companies
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@VoidReader_ Pretty wild day printing that kind of money on Polymarket Perps while mixing short big-tech with a long Nvidia bet shows some sharp positioning
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+$11 that’s exactly how much my first combo made after a long break
It feels like a breath of fresh air
All three teams won convincingly and didn’t give their opponents a chance
+138% that’s what a winning combo looks like
Congrats to everyone who cashed in alongside me
VoidReader@VoidReader_
Are combos dead? This might be the most interesting one I've found in the last month While browsing sports markets on Polymarket, I came across something interesting on the StarLadder CS tournament The playoff bracket lined up almost perfectly Nearly every favorite is facing a much weaker opponent I watched several match breakdowns before placing anything The conclusion was almost always the same The favorites look more consistent Better map pools Better form And a much higher chance of closing out their series without surprises So I built a 3-leg combo where each team has roughly a 70% chance of winning MIBR are already playing and lead 1:0 I didn't think combos would feel exciting again, but this tournament proved me wrong
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@0x_Punisher Very much, I'm just creating my bot, it's valuable to me
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🚨TIP FOR POLYMARKET BOT DEVELOPERS:
My sweeper's entire edge is ONE cent per trade.
No laughing.
A single cent.
But it makes $11k per month passively.
Here's why that one cent is a real business while your "big edge" strategy probably isn't:
Let me show you the math that flips how you think.
A sweep is simple.
You buy a decided outcome at 99c and redeem it at $1.
One cent of gross edge.
That's it.
Sounds pathetic but watch what happens when you add the two things that matter.
> Certainty
The outcome is ALREADY decided before you buy.
You're not betting, you're collecting.
So that cent is nearly risk-free, not a coin flip.
> Velocity
You recycle the same capital over and over, all day.
One cent times hundreds of turnovers is a real number.
Now compare that to a "big edge" directional strategy.
A 10-cent edge that's actually a 55% coin flip, that fills slow, that you can only take a few times a day.
The fat edge that's uncertain and slow loses to the tiny edge that's certain and fast.
That's the whole insight.
Risk-free times high-frequency beats big-but-uncertain almost every time.
Public wallet: <@0x13f0bcec1e2e60ec9acc3bee4d2da2fe9694a50f-1774334442364?via=punisher" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@0x13f0bcec1e2…>
Stop hunting a big edge and hunt a SMALL edge that's certain and repeatable, then run it a thousand times.
Boring one-cent machines outearned my "genius" strategies every time when i was trying to build a profitable bot.
Next post i show how to spot a decided outcome the market hasn't priced yet.
Attaching a full sweeper bot setup below for now.
Punisher@0x_Punisher
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The weather trader turned just $5 of volume into $1,087
+$859 profit today with 456 predictions all-time
His activity is insane, he’s trading almost every market
Every active position is currently in profit
Have you ever seen anything like this?
Added him to my tracking list
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@0xKorens @futuredotnews You are a legend with your weather predictions too
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VoidReader@VoidReader_
It's impossible to include every feature from all trading terminals, but FUTURE is the first one I've seen that brings almost everything together Polymarket-based terminal: future.news/VoidReader After trying it for the first time, I immediately knew I'd be using it regularly Advantages: > The interface is very intuitive. Everything you need is on the main panel, there's a proper exchange-style order book, real-time news and community comments. You can also place a limit order simply by clicking on the chart. For 5-minute and 15-minute markets, that's an absolute must-have > You can view the wallets of people who entered the same trade as you. This honestly surprised me. It shows whether it's a bot or a large trader, the direction of their position, the percentage, and the position size. Everything is displayed clearly with visual labels At the moment, the website may occasionally have issues when connecting with a wallet, so I'd recommend signing in with email for now. They should fix this soon If you have any questions about this terminal, my DMs are always open I genuinely think this is the future of prediction market trading
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