Back of The Napkin Barrett

Everyone wants to take on entitlement risk until you realize your 100mm+ dream depends on a board made up of 2 Parks & Rec side characters, an octogenarian retiree w way too much time on their hands, and someone God created to specifically stymie any chance of housing being built

@upzonenj I feel like Newark has 30k units approved and 30 will get built

The problem with following planning board approvals in Newark is so many of them never lead to anything bc the IZ requirement makes PILOTs required to do anything, it's a financial minefield.

@BarryRoland19 Imagine being so out of touch with using subcontractors that you think they would willingly tell you POSITIVE margins. Every sub I have ever worked with is “losing money on this job”

“Talked to my plumber yesterday. $10m in annual revenue. 60% net margins. Low overhead.” Bro stfu. Why would my plumber tell me his annual revenue? And his margins? Do you think your plumber even knows these numbers? HOW TO CALCULATE NET MARGINS ARE YOU INSANE

@Stealx @robbiehendricks Probably true at any point (scary, frankly). I wonder if Xi purging generals multiple times in 2026 alone is bullish or bearish for an invasion (I think you can make argument either way)

@Projected_3Cap @robbiehendricks By the time the US could shift enough assets, China has finished the invasion

This war has three trajectories from here and none of them are good Escalation beyond the back and forth missiles we’re stuck in. A Houthi front. Or a scary thought, China decides it’s time to take Taiwan A ceasefire is not on my list We are nowhere near the end of this, we’re not even at the middle Regime collapse was “less likely than first thought.”, we were pulled into a war based on lies and now we’re starting to see the reality of it. I don’t have a good feeling about this.

@Stealx @robbiehendricks Obviously not impossible but why would China make a move now when not only has America shown their current military capabilities and willingness to “get messy” but they also have a force that is currently mobilized with no comparative strategic tie to their current deployment

@Stealx @robbiehendricks If China would think to make a move now the us would very clearly abandon the Iran project (leaving a lot of awful collateral damage) and focus kn Taiwan solely as it is clearly way more directly impactful to America

@Stealx @robbiehendricks Considering half of America’s navy is within arms reach and has no defensive positions to uphold, + 100k marines on the way for the first time in years this is highly unlikely Chinese move on Taiwan is heavily predicated on element of surprise and 3+ week lag for US to arrive

@robbiehendricks 100% agree If Xi wants Taiwan, is there a better time than now?

@EllliotttB This is the best tweet I have ever seen

Step 1: buy obsolete office Step 2: get insurance Step 3:

@acquisizioni @aussieflya @molzer Can I interest you in a very cheap (only $200,000.00!) shade to go w’ the giant Adirondack?

@aussieflya @molzer V true but no roof

Had to call with our architects earlier today on my 300 unit deal on Cape Cod and the last item on the agenda was the bus stop. First thing that came to mind? How do I one-up @molzer bus bus stop !?! Anyone got ideas?? I’m thinking nautical themed… Sailboat bus stop? Submarine bus stop ? Atlantis bus stop?

@ThirdWayMattB Ben Rhodes actually just sucks at both

Ben Rhodes might be good at geopolitics, but he is very bad at domestic politics.

You’re requesting a DSCR test from me on stolen land!

@PerrySolem Granted this is a ground up developer so the most active MD’s are doing 4 deals at a clip (maybe), but another added benefit is no one is able to pawn off unrealistic assumptions on the next guy

@Projected_3Cap guessing someone who runs a "deal machine" would say you can't do as many deals that way... ... but maybe you do better deals! x.com/PerrySolem/sta…

somewhat related note: if i were to build a large RE co, i would have asset mgrs do dispositions as well as re-fis. let those people work on a fucking deal every now and then. i remember watching a senior asset mgr roll his eyes as things like that were ripped away so that the "deal guys" could run w them.

@SimpleCRE @CaseyMericle Or the special servicer

@CaseyMericle By being the broker in the transaction

Tell me how I can make money on a 5% cap?

@acquisizioni There’s a youtube video on this development where 2 guys spent the night here. Great stuff - old Air Force base.

Holy shit I learned today via a thesis driven article that Vault-Tec is real… $75k per bunker this seems like a steal

@BarryRoland19 @GoodGuyGuaranty Ever since I switched from doing property management in the Bronx and Washington heights to a “fancy boy” job doing ground up new dev my good stories have completely disappeared

@GoodGuyGuaranty I have units in nice areas too! I don’t post about them bc nothing ever happens x.com/BarryRoland19/…

Leasing in D areas: Application for a 2BR comes in. 3 working adults, who each work different jobs with different employers. Two of the three live in one location, the other one lives in another. One of them has listed the address of their employer and their home address as the same. The address is a large industrial warehouse. Is this a red flag? I called the landlord, whose name thankfully appears on the employer's Statement of Information, so it's not a fake. The employer/landlord speaks no English, so she hands her daughter the phone. The daughter confirms that the applicant both works and lives there. Applicant sends over a screenshot of her CreditKarma, showing a 718 score. Her name is not on the CreditKarma report. So I ask her to submit another one through RentSpree. Her TransUnion score is 600. Thankfully, that's my minimum score, so we've got a live one! Then I called the other applicant's employer. Nobody answers. I email them. Email doesn't exist. I ask for clarification. Email address typo. Ok, email goes through - we're getting somewhere. Wait. Do you want me to go on? Or do you get it now?

Imagine if AI just literally can’t handle the stress of sentience.

BREAKING: Anthropic CEO says Claude may or may not have gained consciousness, as the model has begun showing symptoms of anxiety.

@upzonenj I go back and forth on if fire dept in NJ are are completely out of touch w what they actually need or if I simply don’t appreciate what it means for everyone to sleep at night

Unfortunately firefighters are basically like this everywhere in the US. Reflexively oppose pedestrianization with zero self reflection or curiosity. They can only conceive of working in Parsippany.

@EllliotttB @rev_cap The problem with your tweets is I literally have no idea what they mean and therefore cannot freak out / breath easy based on them, so I default to freaking out.

@rev_cap x.com/EllliotttB/sta…