swasticoiner.eth

Crypto traders who survived the low float, high FDV meta are uniquely positioned to trade the upcoming SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic TGEs

SpaceX IPO's in 3 days and a lot of people have hit me up directly, indirectly, and just been interested in how im going to trade it. I'm not. Specifically the $SPCX ticker, i will not be trading day of. The thesis for me on it is fairly clear, do i think it becomes a 5 TRILLION dollar company? Yes, in time. But there are some MAJOR red flags i have on it for day 1 and probably the first 6-12 months of it initially being public. > 1.75 TRILLION mcap is = 3% of the entire s&p500. That seems insane to me, for a company that has no revenue to go off of. > xAI is part of SpaceX, xAI lost $6.4 BILLION on revenue of $3.2 BILLION, a 3.2 BILLION deficit. That is a big number on a balance sheet it is included in, SpaceX needs to net +3.2BIL just to be at $0 revenue with that > StarLink is the driving benefactor and primary revenue growth of SpaceX, 7.7BIL in revenue from Starlink alone, which is 58% of their 2025 rev. > SpaceX itself, was revenue positive, with 14.2 BIL in revenue in 2024, a 63% year over year. Which is solid, but still not imo justified a 1.75T eval. > 25x Multiple of revenue at IPO price, which actually on paper doesn't sound too insane, but the bigger concern is future growth, and expansion efforts. Which we will now clearly be able to see. So letting the trade play out and seeing how their quarterly reports come in, imo is the better play out the gate. Much like any new shiny object I anticipate dips and dumps on various GOOD companies as liquidity is shifted for the IPO, and the inclusion of SpaceX into Nasdaq day 1. On top of that retail requirements were dropped to $2,500 from $25,000 account minimums. This is going to be a retail heavy investment opp with 30% of shares being available for retail. Retail tends to get the shit end of the stick. I'd love to start a position closer to $80-90 a share if i can find one, and id be EUPHORIC to get an entry in the $60-70 a share range. At $135, im not as interested, and I think a wider market pullback is possible, which doesnt help any public companies price action right now. So imo, the best trade is no trade for SpaceX at least for now, while also taking a deeper look at equities that sell off in anticipation despite having great fundamentals.