Mooni Insight 💫

The oil market now reminds me of when prices were around $30 in March 2020. Plenty of people who never looked at oil were going long oil futures, not realising what could happen to the roll. A few weeks later prices traded negative, with a $50+ contango for WTI a day before expiry. They looked at oil futures like equity, not understanding the impact of futures roll. This time is similar, plenty of people shorting the oil market thinking the Strait of Hormuz will eventually reopen and things will go back to normal. Many are trying to call the top. Without realising they might have to roll their shorts at $30, $50, $70+ backwardation?

We’re a few weeks away from where there will be no designers or engineers, but a third secret thing