Iddan

64 posts

Iddan banner
Iddan

Iddan

@SmallcapInv1

Investor in (mostly) small caps worldwide, looking for quality and growth without paying too much, because it's best to have the cake and eat it too

Присоединился Mart 2025
459 Подписки137 Подписчики
Iddan
Iddan@SmallcapInv1·
They'll probably use their HK subsidiary (Yuanbao (Hong Kong) Limited) to circumvent the additional 5%. However, I'm not sure at all that they'll pay out the full amount that they are transferring, as so far they've been quite conservative. However your guess is as good as mine (and I hope you're right of course). You can assess the dividend payment in several ways (e.g. the yield compared to the market cap, % of annual income, etc) and compare to peers. Overall, I'm happy about the dividends for 2 main reasons - that they have shareholders' interest in mind, and that integrity is shown since they do as they said. I don't expect them to have wonderful capital allocation solutions (e.g., to find creative ways to buy and cancel shares from VCs who might want out, normal buybacks, or big dividends), but of course it'd be great to be pleasantly surprised.
English
0
0
3
74
Friso Alenus
Friso Alenus@friso_alenus·
Nice catch. Gemini said the following about the potential amount of cash transfer: ​ Scenario A (10% Standard Rate): If they are paying the standard 10% rate, the math is 66.4 million / 0.10. This means the total gross cash being transferred out of China is RMB 664 million (approx. US$95 million). ​Scenario B (5% HK Treaty Rate): If they qualify for the 5% treaty rate, the math is 66.4 million / 0.05. This means the total gross cash being transferred is RMB 1.328 billion (approx. US$190 million). So dividend yield might be even higher, or we might see a combination buybacks/dividend.
English
1
0
2
87
Stock.Logging
Stock.Logging@stock_logging·
$YB Yuanbao just reported its Q4 results: ➢ Revenue +32.24% YoY, +1.50% QoQ ➢ EBIT +36.54% YoY, +11.38% QoQ ➢ 97% Gross Margin, 33.6% Operating Margin ➢ EPS lower QoQ due to high income taxes Valuation based on 2025 numbers: ➢ 5x PE ➢ 1.53x EV / OCF ➢ 24% OCF yield Initial thoughts: Strong numbers as usual. For a company which should grow topline by ~20% in 2026, this valuation is laughably cheap, also compared to peers like $WDH. But: Still no news on shareholder returns (dividends/buybacks), which is incredibly frustrating. As I’ve noted several times in the past, I fear the market will continue to ignore the stock as long as all that cash just sits there rotting on the balance sheet. Management claimed they were "considering" dividends in the last two earnings calls, but nothing happened so far. If we don't get anything concrete regarding dividends in the upcoming call today (which I strongly suspect), I’m considering selling my position. Very frustrating outcome because my original July 2025 write-up was spot on regarding business quality and execution - but the share price simply doesn't reflect it. Much of the blame for this IMO lies with management, which appears to have zero interest in shareholder returns, playing right into the hands of those skeptical of US-listed Chinese stocks.
Stock.Logging@stock_logging

$YB Strong Q3/25 print from Yuanbao ➢ Revenue +33.59% YoY, +8.22% QoQ ➢ EBIT +39.27% YoY, +19.08% QoQ ➢ 96% GM, 30.6% OM ➢ EPS +20% QoQ Current valuation ➢Fwd. PE 2025: 5.34 ➢Fwd. EV/FCF 2025: 1.89 (!!!) Calculation Achieved from Q1-Q3/2025 were: ➢$2.90 EPS ($3.87 annual.) ➢$169.2 million OCF ($225.6m annual.) ➢OCF more or less = FCF, since CAPEX is almost zero ➢$20.65 share price and 951.56 mcap ➢EV should currently be at $427 million after Q3/25 Further initial observations: ➢As I suspected after the last quarter (due to the growth in number of new policies), growth is now back above 30% YoY, which I find extremely positive. This KPI also looks strong again in Q3 with +41.8% YoY. ➢The EBIT margin is also back at 30% (last seen in Q4/24), confirming the operating leverage the company promised in the Q1/25 call. ➢Negative point: Unfortunately, no news on buybacks or dividends. This is a real shame, as the company is swimming in cash (519m USD, which is almost 55% of its current mcap). Perhaps something will come up in the call. ➢For those who haven't heard yet: Neither management nor the vast majority of other major shareholders sold shares at the end of the lockup period, which demonstrates confidence in the growth prospects and eliminates a major risk. ➢Otherwise, I can only reiterate: IMO Yuanbao is completely mispriced. Waterdrop is trading at a fwd PE of 11.6 for 2025. By this measure, Yuanbao should be trading at a share price of USD 45. More likely even higher, as Yuanbao IMO deserves a premium valuation thanks to its higher margins, better growth, and much higher ROCE. I hope that buybacks/dividends will equalize the valuation difference sooner than later.

English
2
2
23
2.8K
Iddan
Iddan@SmallcapInv1·
@friso_alenus I think we might have a hint indicating progress with the dividends, wrote about it here: x.com/SmallcapInv1/s…
Iddan@SmallcapInv1

Actually, I came out pretty enthusiastic. They didn't mention dividends in the PR and were vague on the call, but they gave us a big (yet concealed) hint - the accrual withholding of Q4 tax! The accounting implication is that they are transferring money from their Chinese entity into the US one (probably via the HK entity), and the main reasons for doing this would be - dividends, buybacks or acquisitions. In this case I think it's pretty clear that the reason is an upcoming dividend. While they haven't mentioned it specifically, my guess is that they'll announce the dividend by end of June, and that it'll be around 4%-5%. We might learn more after release of the 20-F (ADR equivalent of the 10-K) by end of April. Their IPO was less than a year ago, and there really are some preparations prior to the first dividend payments, so I believe management when they're saying it's in the works. The relevant text: "Income Tax Expenses. Income tax expenses in the fourth quarter of 2025 were RMB75.4 million (US$10.8 million), representing a 734.9% year-over-year increase from RMB9.0 million in the same period of 2024. This increase was primarily driven by the accrual of withholding income tax in the fourth quarter of 2025."

English
0
0
2
63
Friso Alenus
Friso Alenus@friso_alenus·
$YB Yuanbao reported earnings today. Revenue comes in at $625 million (+33% yoy), slightly ahead of my base case for 2025 ($620 million) Revenue keep growing steady. Let's wait for the earnings call to see what management says about buybacks/dividend Almost 60% net cash vs MC!
Friso Alenus@friso_alenus

1/ $YB TOP IDEA 2026 IS OUT Yuanbao is growing revenue at ~30% year-over-year with 13 consecutive quarters of profitability, yet trades at a P/E of only 5x. Yuanbao is a high-margin AI data engine trading at a fraction of its peers' valuations. seekingalpha.com/article/486287…

English
2
0
4
518
Iddan
Iddan@SmallcapInv1·
@friso_alenus Great post. I've been unsuccessful in trying to get hold of management or IR for a while now. Have you talked to them? (by the way, I know this company relatively well and happy to discuss it further. Your DMs are closed so feel free to DM me)
English
1
0
1
49
Friso Alenus
Friso Alenus@friso_alenus·
1/ $YB TOP IDEA 2026 IS OUT Yuanbao is growing revenue at ~30% year-over-year with 13 consecutive quarters of profitability, yet trades at a P/E of only 5x. Yuanbao is a high-margin AI data engine trading at a fraction of its peers' valuations. seekingalpha.com/article/486287…
English
7
2
12
6.8K
Iddan
Iddan@SmallcapInv1·
@Floebertus @trackdalf I actually think they're doing a decent job, e.g. recently created a ~5% dividend. They can't do buybacks due to 25% public float req of HKEX. I agree that listing in Singapore would be ideal, and wouldn't be surprised if div grows later this year or if they bid bigger projects
English
0
1
2
53
Floebertus
Floebertus@Floebertus·
@trackdalf Yes it's negative EV but they don't seem to be fixing it. Maybe they should list in Japan to fit in :)
English
1
0
2
108
Floebertus
Floebertus@Floebertus·
Pawnbrokers are getting hot, as silver crossed $100, more customers are pawning items for cash. Moneymax in particular is up 70% since the post below, and saw their uplisting from the Singapore small cap Catalist market, to the main market approved today. Institutional investors traded traded ~5 million shares at 0.72 SGD $5WJ.SI
Floebertus@Floebertus

Is Singapore still cheap, guys? 🚀 Moneymax ($5WJ.SI) trades at ~6x H1 annualized PE, after posting 8 consecutive quarters of >30% organic growth. Typical Singapore, that's just normal...

English
2
1
38
8.6K
Mikro Kap David
Mikro Kap David@david_katunaric·
@Kreuzmann13 @SebKrog Very kind Kuba! From what I've seen, I think your subscribers are more than happy with what you put out.
English
1
0
3
1.3K
Iddan
Iddan@SmallcapInv1·
@R2Discovery @KyleSalvitti Nice find! Do you think that this is the 13.5M order to the unnamed European country, or perhaps another undisclosed contract?
English
1
0
0
64
research2discovery
research2discovery@R2Discovery·
I am not a technical or chart expert, but I see heavy sell orders, that were suprisingly killing Ceotronics $CEK on huge order news, now totally disappeared. Since 1 hour there is no huge selling pressure and volumes back to normal levels. Maybe it's an end of this nonsense? ⬇️
research2discovery tweet media
research2discovery@R2Discovery

What is going on with Ceotronics $CEK share price now after German army €47m order annoucement (46% of marketcap now)? For context group of peers like Rheinmetall $RHM, Hensoldt $HAG, Steyr Motors 4X0 or Invisio $IVSO are flattish. Creative answers welcome.

English
5
0
11
4K
Iddan
Iddan@SmallcapInv1·
@KyleSalvitti @R2Discovery The politico leak is still within the currently approved 191k units, but the pace of fulfillment hints at an extension. Will look into Rheinetall as precursor. Of course other wins in the EU would be great as well, but too early to count on it or to scope imo.
English
1
0
0
65
Kyle Salvitti
Kyle Salvitti@KyleSalvitti·
@SmallcapInv1 @R2Discovery The politico leak that @R2Discovery posted is a good indicator. I use Gemini to scrape the internet for proxy indicators within the DACH region. CEK contracts are often preceeded by a Rheinmetall win or comms programs, etc. There are lots of relevant projects across EU and DACH
English
1
0
2
100
Iddan
Iddan@SmallcapInv1·
@capytalmgmt Thx, I was just about to check this :) Comparing them with other singapore builders, I like them best. 2 tidbits- Margins protected, win tenders w/out cheapest bids (h/t @illyquid) Backlog: though FY25 was record year, you show: past 6 months backlog growth > FY25 rev
English
0
0
0
162
Capytal Management
Capytal Management@capytalmgmt·
After the end of FY25, Kwan Yong $9998.HK announced three contract wins, totalling $303m (in SGD) 1. $151m redevelopment of a junior college 2. $56m development of a nursing home 3. $96m development of a nursing home Total updated backlog: $656m $9998.HK made $240m revenues in FY25 at 5% net margins. Quick math: If we assume the company stops taking on new contracts, they should make $33m of net income from current backlog. Adding $50m of cash net of deferred revenue means their bottom line valuation should be at least $83m, vs current market cap of $48m as of Dec 23, 2025? Stock doesn't care about fundamentals right now though
Capytal Management tweet media
Illiquid@illyquid

$9998.hk - wins a new S$ 96m nursing home contract today, days after we wrote up an AGM note about a happy CEO telling us how close they are with the Ministry of Health. In keeping with his promise that they will defend margins and still win tenders, they were the 5th lowest bid among shortlisted contractors.

English
3
2
17
6.1K
Iddan
Iddan@SmallcapInv1·
@TalkSoonCapital @IBKR Huationg might fit the bill. @Floebertus has a writeup from October on Substack (and is a great follow in general)
English
0
0
2
79
TalkSoon Capital
TalkSoon Capital@TalkSoonCapital·
@SmallcapInv1 @IBKR any in particular you're looking at? Of the ones listed in Singapore I only know of Soilbuild which has ran up quite a bit
English
1
0
0
66
TalkSoon Capital
TalkSoon Capital@TalkSoonCapital·
Added more $1798.T. This is dirt cheap even for a construction company. Lot of operating leverage in the revised guidance which they are on track to beat
English
3
0
1
236
Iddan
Iddan@SmallcapInv1·
@TalkSoonCapital @IBKR Oh I see... There are a couple Singaporean cheap builders, just not as cheap as the HK listed ones
English
1
0
0
61
TalkSoon Capital
TalkSoon Capital@TalkSoonCapital·
@SmallcapInv1 I took a look when it was trading around .20 but unfortunately @IBKR restricts Canadian residents from buying HK-listed microcaps cuz they somehow think every single one is a pump n dump scheme lol. My only option was to open an overseas brokerage which is too much of a hassle
English
1
0
0
71
Iddan
Iddan@SmallcapInv1·
Thanks Kyle, agree that a FY26 9x EBIT makes sense, and 5x EBIT is possible under more aggressive assumptions. The biggest open question for me is #2 above re expansion of the SmG contract - the thesis (beyond the upcoming year) relies on this, and I wonder if there's a way to get visibility on it in advance. I took a look at the Europe TED site, but haven't found anything interesting yet. Do you know how to learn or where to check if such an extension is planned? (directed for both @KyleSalvitti and @R2Discovery of course)
English
2
0
2
114
Iddan
Iddan@SmallcapInv1·
@SkyintheSea_x Has mgmt indicated in the past if they're planning on a special dividend or buyback in case of such a divestment? If they sell IHSE too, will they distribute dividends and close the company altogether? Thx in advance!
English
1
0
0
101
Iddan
Iddan@SmallcapInv1·
@SkyintheSea_x Congratulations! You have been vocal about this mispricing for a while. Any reason for this not to be approved? Shouldn't the stock be trading at least at 23 Euro now (or perhaps 28)? what am I missing?
English
2
0
0
408
Larry Livingstone
Larry Livingstone@SkyintheSea_x·
On continue les OPA avec Brockhaus Technologies ! Offre sur l'une des deux filiales de $BKHT : Bikeleasing sera racheté par Décathlon à un équivalent de 23€ par action. ll reste iHSE encore qui vaut probablement 5-8€ par action et sera j'imagine revendu dans la foulée. Gavage
Français
6
1
30
4.7K
Iddan
Iddan@SmallcapInv1·
Hi, thanks to the both of you for sharing your insights! I had a couple of questions, interested in hearing your thoughts: 1. On the short term, how do you reach the 9 P/E and 5 EV/EBIT estimates? That would mean in FY26 growing earnings from 4.7 to 11.8, and EBIT from 7.9 to 21.5. Of course there's operating leverage, but probably some manufacturing bottlenecks too, as last year they were only able to complete about a 20M of their 60M backlog (prior to the 3rd lot order), no? How much revenue do you think they'll book in FY26 in order to reach the earnings and EBIT numbers above? 2. In the medium term, there seem to be a lot of reasons for optimism with the Bundeswehr - expansion to total of 260k units for active troops, 460k for active+reserve, and 644k for active+reserve+wear and tear! I think even the largest increase to 644k sounds pretty likely due to not only project FASER, but also project D-LBO, which would render the old communication sets obsolete. If there is not extension beyond the 191k, that's a very different story... Given tenders take some time to materialize, shouldn't we already see the preparation for these tenders now and perhaps some initial public notices, as they'll probably need the extension from 191k units less than 2 years from now?
English
1
0
4
101
Kyle Salvitti
Kyle Salvitti@KyleSalvitti·
@R2Discovery Not recognizing the margin expansion you point out. And if I read it right, €65mm was the guide which seems obvious they’ll beat with current backlog and lot 4 being called in ‘26, not counting any other new contracts. I’d expect a beat and raise cadence as they report
English
1
0
5
132
Simeon Research
Simeon Research@SimeonResearch_·
As much as I adore turning rocks, the best performing holdings this year were very evident they had a favourable rr in less than a hour of research. $NXSN.TA - Elite quality drone cameras positioned in a booming industry & huge geopolitical tailwinds while being ignored due to location. $ILYDA.AT - Completely underpriced when discovered while holding a monopoly over pharmacy software & positioned greatly to take advantage of a booming Greek economy via Rf’s $HIMS - Scalability & Network effects with very high customer satisfaction metrics (bought before the tremendous hype here, don’t own anymore) Some other ideas that were evident this year but I never owned - $SLYG.F $DBO.TO $BQG.SI That said these ideas are rare and I was fortunate to have 3 this year, and funnily enough my worst performing idea was very complex and full of hair.
English
5
2
44
5.8K
Iddan
Iddan@SmallcapInv1·
According to my math, I’m guessing Q3 2026 will be the first full quarter where debt has been fully repaid. At that point, FCF will likely be distributed fully, and div yield may grow to around a 12% yield. I wouldn’t be shocked if that would cause the stock to re-rate, say a year from now. Later on, when mineral cycles move from trough to peak, rerating could happen again. All of this is known in advance with a pretty high probability, but the market seems impatient, as we’ve seen earlier in this thread. I don’t really care for the rerating in this specific case, as this stock can pay high dividends for decades (assuming they don’t run out of coal / coal is still in use / mgmt doesn’t do anything stupid / etc). The optionality doesn’t hurt though :)
English
0
0
4
319
Iddan
Iddan@SmallcapInv1·
Quantifying the value of patience - ever since the new management took over, they have been laser focused on executing their strategy and reducing the debt burden. While there is some uncertainty about whether mgmt will stay its course or what FCF will look like once debt is repaid, but in my opinion actually very little information has been revealed in the past few years, and almost everything that is known now could have been known 5 or even 7 years ago (in their first 2-3 years mgmt did need to build credibility). Since only somewhat limited info was revealed over the past few years (e.g. changes in commodity prices), we can quantify the value of staying patient with this name and in some sense check the efficiency of the market, by viewing the stock price over time. Progress is not a straight line of course, but it looks like if you pick a random date 1-7 years back it looks like a 20%-40% and sometimes even >50% IRR. Note that this is the case even though we’re now pretty much at the trough of the cycle, so the “clean” number is probably even higher, though I made some simplifying assumptions.
English
1
0
0
394
Iddan
Iddan@SmallcapInv1·
If Seinfeld is the “show about nothing” then $NRP (Natural Resource Partners) is “the stock about nothing”, that is to say - the company basically doesn’t need to do almost anything as the royalties keep pouring in, rain or shine. Can see why @JohnHuber72 loves both! For those who don’t know the company, I’d start with the 2024 Q4 letter by @AKWilk and the VIC writeup by rookie964. A thread about: comparing NRP future returns to the S&P500, MLP isn’t necessarily a barrier even for int’l retail investors, quantifying the value of patience, and future re-rating expectations; Disc: holding, not advice, DYOR
English
2
0
7
1.9K

Открыть

@friso_alenus @Floebertus @trackdalf @david_katunaric @Kreuzmann13 @SebKrog @R2Discovery @KyleSalvitti