wizardofDS
14.5K posts
I’ve pulled out 50% of my portfolio from the Indian stock market today!
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GIFT Nifty up 3% on ceasefire news. What changed in Indian fundamentals overnight? Earnings have been soft. Margins are under pressure. Rural consumption is still finding its footing. Private capex hasn’t shown up yet. Oil falling from $110 to $90 helps the current account but it’s not the same as oil at $70. The import bill is still high relative to where India was budgeting a year ago. The ceasefire removes one risk. It doesn’t fix any of that. A bounce after six weeks of fear is normal. What comes after the bounce is the real question.
Watch the facts. Not the statements.
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He can't broker ceasefire between Kuki and Maeiti in Manipur for past 3 years and his supporters think he has any say between US and Iran..really .
Like really ????
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Sorry Dr MMS ji and the UPA government, for the 2014 blunder.
I got carried away and was heavily influenced by constant protests and daily anti-government news, and I criticised one of India’s finest Prime Ministers.
Now Looking back, 2004–14 feels like a golden era for India
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Oil falls 16% on ceasefire news. Markets cheer.
But here is what the engineers are saying.
Restarting a small shut-in field takes two to three weeks. A large one takes four to five. And none of that can begin until storage tanks at Gulf ports are emptied first.
Kuwait Petroleum’s CEO said it plainly: bulk production returns in a few weeks, full production in three to four months.
The EIA estimates 9.1 million barrels a day shut in during April. Even under an optimistic scenario where traffic resumes now, shut-ins only fall to 6.7 million b/d by May. Pre-conflict levels return in late 2026 at the earliest.
And that is just oil. Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG complex was struck. Official estimates say up to five years to repair the damage.
A ceasefire opens the door. It does not turn the tap.
The supply shock is still there. The price market just forgot that for a morning.
Watch the facts. Not the statements.
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Statement on behalf of the Supreme National Security Council of the Islamic Republic of Iran:
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@policytensor Yup, China had no role to play. Keep crying in your basement.
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Exactly. That he has publicly accepted the 10 pts as the point of departure is a massive victory for Iran, and the reason why they have agreed to a temporary ceasefire that they have otherwise rejected outright from the moment when he started suing for peace weeks ago.
Shaiel Ben-Ephraim@academic_la
The US has accepted the Iranian ten points as a basis for talks. Which is somewhat surprising. Here are the points: 1) Security Guarantees: A binding guarantee that Iran will not be attacked again in the future. 2) Permanent Peace: A transition to a permanent end to the war, rather than a series of temporary ceasefires. 3) End to Strikes in Lebanon: An immediate halt to Israeli military operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon. 4) Sanctions Relief: The lifting of all U.S. and international sanctions imposed on Iran. 5) Cessation of Regional Hostilities: A broader agreement to end all regional fighting against Iranian allies. 6) Opening the Strait of Hormuz: In exchange for the above, Iran agrees to lift its de facto blockade and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. 7) Transit Fees: The introduction of a protocol for safe passage that includes a $2 million fee per ship transiting the waterway. 8) Revenue Sharing: Iran proposes splitting these transit fees with Oman, which sits across the strait. 9) Reconstruction Funding: Iran will use its share of the fees to rebuild infrastructure destroyed by U.S. and Israeli strikes, rather than demanding direct financial reparations. 10) Nuclear Enrichment Rights: Recognition of Iran's right to enrich uranium under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). While this does not mean that Trump has accepted these points, just agreeing to talk about it is a MAJOR victory for Iran. Notice Iran removed their demand for America to remove its bases. The most encouraging thing here is the possibility of moving towards a permanent peace. A real blow for Israel, that is for sure.
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Has anyone told the Iranians…??🤣
Disclose.tv@disclosetv
JUST IN - Trump agrees to a 2-week ceasefire with Iran.
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@citrinowicz Cry more. You have been completely wrong about this.
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A few hard truths about the emerging ceasefire: it may signal the beginning of the end of the fighting, but given the deep mistrust between the parties, it must be treated with extreme caution. Until a ceasefire is fully in place, there is no ceasefire:
1. We are still operating in the dark. Key details are missing, especially what was actually promised to Iran.
2. If Iran did in fact secure guarantees based on the ‘ten principles’ Trump referenced, that is not a marginal outcome, it is a strategic win for Tehran, reinforcing its narrative and positioning.
3. Iran will almost certainly frame this as a success: a temporary ceasefire backed by assurances on negotiations under its terms and constraints on renewed military action. Whether that perception reflects reality remains unclear, but perception matters.
4. Any assessment must start with a basic fact: Iran still holds enriched uranium. That reality has not changed.
5. The United States has chosen, at least for now, to avoid escalation and signal flexibility. But the practical meaning of this, especially regarding Iran’s economic lifelines remains vague. What is not vague is President Trump’s clear preference for reaching a deal, even with a regime he has aggressively targeted.
6. When forced to choose, Trump did not fully align with Israel’s position and instead moved toward a ceasefire. That decision carries implications but it is too early to determine how far they will go.
7. And if there was any doubt about Trump’s priorities, look at the Strait of Hormuz. Keeping it open, after it remained open even at the start of the war, clearly became the central objective of the negotiations, above all else. That alone says a lot. It underscores just how flawed the strategic planning of this campaign was from the outset.
More to follow!
Laura Rozen@lrozen
Trump says he agreed to hold off bombing of Iran for two weeks at the urging of Pakistani prime minister and army chief, subject to Iran reopening Strait of Hormuz.
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If this is true, I was wrong on my view that Iran wouldn't open Hormuz. Will have to take the L
FinancialJuice@financialjuice
⚠ BREAKING: Iran accepted Pakistan’s two-week cease-fire proposal. Cease-fire was approved by the new supreme leader - NYT
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Just now:
An informed source categorically rejected any possibility of a ceasefire and negotiations, saying: “We do not accept the model of a ceasefire and then negotiations in any way. The war will continue until a definitive victory is achieved.”
He added: “The upper hand is definitely with Iran, and the loser in this field is certainly America. They are the ones who must act on Iran’s clear and specific conditions.”
The informed source added: “This definitive decision has been made at the highest levels of the system, and the only strategy for pursuing and managing the war is this path, and that’s it.”
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Bloomberg just dropped the Orbán tapes and it reads like a bad fanfic.
Hungary’s prime minister spent a phone call with Putin calling him a “lion,” casting himself as the helpful little “mouse,” offering Budapest as a venue to end the war on Russia’s terms, and closing with “I am at your service.”
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25TH AMENDMENT!!!
Not a single bomb has dropped on America. We cannot kill an entire civilization.
This is evil and madness.
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𝗧𝗥𝗨𝗠𝗣 𝗥𝗔𝗖𝗘𝗦 𝗧𝗢 𝗦𝗘𝗖𝗨𝗥𝗘 𝗖𝗘𝗔𝗦𝗘𝗙𝗜𝗥𝗘 𝗪𝗜𝗧𝗛 𝗜𝗥𝗔𝗡 𝗨𝗡𝗗𝗘𝗥 𝗜𝗡𝗧𝗘𝗡𝗦𝗘 𝗣𝗥𝗘𝗦𝗦𝗨𝗥𝗘
According to an informed source cited by Fars News Agency, the U.S. is now actively pushing for a ceasefire with Iran through multiple backchannels.
Trump is reportedly working to open a direct path toward negotiations, using five countries and eight intelligence agencies to establish contact with Tehran.
Several allied heads of state and intelligence services have already conducted separate communications in an effort to broker a deal.
The urgency comes as Trump faces mounting political pressure after setting a deadline for negotiations with Iran, one he now risks failing to meet.
A collapse of this track could significantly damage his credibility and weaken his administration.
The situation inside Washington is becoming increasingly tense.
The “Isfahan incident” over the past two days has sharply intensified pressure on the White House.
At the same time, internal concerns are rising within the administration, with reports suggesting that leadership tensions in the Pentagon have already led to high-level consequences, with further changes potentially imminent.
Over the past 24 hours, the U.S. has reportedly reached out to any country it believes has influence with Iran, seeking urgent mediation to de-escalate the situation.
Meanwhile, pressure from Israel and pro-Israel lobbying circles continues to grow.
Trump is said to be fully aware of this pressure, yet unwilling to accept what is being framed as a strategic defeat.
The current U.S. approach reportedly includes reshaping the negotiation channel, moving away from figures seen as too close to Netanyahu, and attempting to build a more credible path for talks, while offering concessions in response to Iranian demands.
At the same time, concerns are rising in Washington over the economic fallout, particularly the risk of a sharp increase in fuel prices starting next week, something the U.S. is not prepared to absorb.
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Rajpal bhai aap 30 yrs se kaam kar rahe ho aur hum sabne aapko repeat kiya hai baar baar kyunki aap apna kaam jante ho aur ek value laate ho , kaam toh aapko bohot milega aur issi dollar rate pe milega aur milte rahega . Hakikat yeh hai .
Aur yeh yaad rakhna ke kabhi kabhi flow mai kuch nikal aata hai ,dena hi hai toh dimag mai rakho dil se kaam karo , dollar upar ho ya neeche kya farak padta hai dena toh India mai hi hai @rajpalofficial
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