Mr. Bertrand

$FOUR Even if GB revenues grow single digit, the accretive income from cross selling is huge, there is a lot of material including CEO talks about it in public forums! They didn’t bought GB for what it is now, it’s the potencial. And the most important thing of all: @rookisaacman hasn’t stop buying a LOT of shares putting even more skin in the game, now owning more than 30% of the company. Any X Guru guru who thinks they know better than the founder should’ve dismissed IMHO Please read again, the founder which knows better than all of us is buying as ton. That’s my post and good luck to all the longs out there, BE PATIENT,

But that’s my point they are not trading at the same multiples $FOUR is at 8x forward p/e and $TOST is at 21x, they are very similar companies (I know business model is a little different and Four has leverage) but IMHO it doesn’t justify the difference they are growing at these pace

@casque @rodrigoaan All these names all trade around the same multiple are we wrong or is the market wrong.

It’s will be fun to watch when $FOUR shorts try to cover 17 million plus shares while the stock is averaging around a million a day 😂😂😂

@rodrigoaan And don’t forget about valuation, it is getting ridiculous, it’s 7x forward p/e Just compare it with $tost

@casque And volume keeps going down while the stock keeps going up with great bullish divergence, option flow, buybacks, 2026 catalysts like World Cup. It needs very little to do break the 50dma and push another squeeze imo

$SOFI GETTING HOT AGAIN!!!

$FOUR

@ArneUlland @usernavn @TihoBrkan It will come eventually he is not looking for the short term

@usernavn @TihoBrkan So difficult imo to assess insider trading & stock buybacks with any kind of conviction. Incentive schemes, personal finance & risk adjustment all play in here. Take the recent purchases at $FOUR. Even though Jared's been buying like crazy there hasn't been any major bounce back.

Do you guys have recommendations for accounts to follow that vocally express concerns when prices reach elevated levels? I can only think of a few accounts like @TihoBrkan, who vocally expressed concerns when quality traded above historical numbers. Most just follow the narrative

@A_K_Mandhan @PugTrader 👏🏼👏🏼

@MarioNawfal 😂😂😂

🇮🇱 Tens of thousands of bees swarmed a shopping mall in Netivot, Israel, taking over the area and forcing authorities to warn people to shut doors and windows. Netanyahu blamed Iran

@nachunja $FOUR 👀👀

$XYZ 2027 valuation vs. peers It's cheap. $MQ $FOUR $KLAR $HOOD $SHOP

@MPcompounders @perplexity_ai Jajajaja blocked

Senior in college. Just finished the Perplexity Pitch Challenge - judged by Laffont, Loeb, Hao, and Tepper. My pick: $FOUR (Shift4 Payments). Built the full thesis with @perplexity_ai. Would love feedback from anyone who follows the name: silentcontrar1an.github.io/perplexityshif… 🧵

No 1. In hospitality and stadiums, No 2 in restaurants, very clear moat and a los of accounts with less than a 100 followers trashing the stock and comically the think the know better than the founder who keeps buying shares jajajajaj. Panic and sell if you want and see you next year.

Yes, absolutely, it’s an incredibly cheap stock. I think the market has clearly priced in a slowdown in organic revenue growth to the LSD to MSD range. They’re extrapolating a trend: from 26% to 10% (we are here now) to LSD to MSD shortly. FOUR’s job is to prove it can stabilize organic revenue growth closer to DD w/o sacrificing margins. Do that and the stock will work.

Shift4's $FOUR Warning Signs $FOUR's Q4 earnings were a mixed bag, to be generous. In reality, there were several red flags that warrant greater scrutiny. Yes, shares are exceedingly cheap, and I am STILL long, but if anything is certain in payments it’s that valuation alone is not a reason for a stock to move higher. Appreciable slowing of organic revenue growth. The biggie. After increasing 26% in 2024, $FOUR's organic revenue growth is expected to slow to 10% in 2026, inclusive of Global Blue. While low double-digit organic revenue growth is good, especially for a company trading at $FOUR's valuation, the trend is not our friend. More importantly, the slowdown adds validity to a key bear argument for $FOUR that acquisitions fuel an unsustainable burst of ‘organic’ growth, requiring continual M&A to sustain attractive ‘organic’ growth. 2026 guidance does not appear conservative, calling into question a return to beat-and-raise cadence. Even before the Iranian conflict, which may eat into discretionary spending and slow global travel in certain corridors ( $FOUR called out the Middle East and Saudi Arabia as increasingly important strategic markets), it does not appear $FOUR was being overly conservative by assuming recent SSS trends continue through 2026, calling into question a return to a beat-and-raise cadence. Falling blended spreads in Q4. On a year-over-year basis, $FOUR's blended spreads fell 3-bps in Q4, and probably closer to 4-bps excluding Global Blue. While I’m willing to give $FOUR the benefit of the doubt, if it was indeed a mix issue, it implies meaningful slowing in $FOUR's SMB volume, calling into question the quality of the merchant base and how it would hold up in a more significant economic downturn. The lack of a clear handle on how FX and geopolitics will impact Global Blue. While I don’t blame $FOUR for things that are clearly outside of their control (FX movements and geopolitical tension), I do believe $FOUR was overly optimistic about the underlying growth potential of Global Blue. As I noted back in October, Global Blue’s revenue grew only at a 4% compound annual rate from 2019 to 2025 (fiscal year ending March), falling to about 2% after excluding acquisitions that created the Post-Purchase Solutions segment in 2020 and 2021. Shrinking backlog. At the end of 2025, $FOUR's volume backlog was $32 billion, representing only 15% of 2025’s E2E volume. It was also down from more than $35 billion at the end of Q1, Q2 and Q3. While I’m in no way dismissing the opportunity from the cross-sell funnel, recent backlog performance suggests this volume may be more adjacent than captive, requiring more effort by $FOUR to convert it to actual end-to-end volume. Adjusted free cash flow flat in 2026. After saying it was on pace to exceed its $1B FCF exit rate target in 2027, $FOUR guided to just $500M of FCF in 2026, flat with 2025. Even if I assume FCF grows by one-third in 2027, which may be aggressive, $665 million is a far cry from a $1 billion annualized exit rate. $FOUR now prefers to look at this metric on a per-share basis given its preference for buybacks over debt paydown. Fair, but if I assume $FOUR buys back the entire $1B authorization, the forfeited interest expense savings would only be about $50 million ($1 billion at 7% and a 25% tax rate), making the $720 million pro-forma FCF number still notably shy of the $1 billion target. Changing and inconsistent disclosure. Underpinning most of my concerns and the red flags I’ve outlined above is $FOUR's changing and inconsistent disclosure. Changing and inconsistent disclosure strikes at the heart of management’s credibility, a precious resource for companies.

@CurryorNothing Are you getting paid to post this biased uneducated and unfounded data? Can you please be honest and talk about the growth for the last 5-10 years??

$FOUR Global Blue going to print ugly quarter; my channel checks in Asia tell me that biz extremely dependent on Chinese travel and instant WeChat-based VAT refund. Japan removing instant VAT kills one of their biggest markets.

@CurryorNothing @Dip_Buyer03 @MPcompounders @FundasyInvestor @Speedwell_LLC @tembelvitesi @AKWilk @TomSmith839 @JM_Investment0 @RahulSetty_ @rookisaacman @Shift4 You know more than the founder who keeps buying!! Congrats!!

@Dip_Buyer03 @MPcompounders @FundasyInvestor @Speedwell_LLC @tembelvitesi @AKWilk @TomSmith839 @JM_Investment0 @RahulSetty_ @rookisaacman @Shift4 What many get wrong on $FOUR: they only got "18 month payback" on a couple small deals, but clearly got zero payback on others. Net-net, M&A record is crap > IPO (10% ROIC). GB payback will be 10yrs, lucky (!). Backlog is the KPI; without M&A, it is now negative.

I’ve never seen so much negative posts on $FOUR, which in my experience is an unequivocal sign that the share price is bottoming. I’ve been doing this for a ver long time, se you in a year.

@grok @ReadyfortheRun @bobspaysubstack @grok I didn’t se the shrinking backlog in the presentation can you tell me where I can find it

ReadyfortheRun The post flags risks in $FOUR post-Q4: organic rev growth slowing to ~10% in '26 (from 26% prior), non-conservative guidance amid travel/geopolitics hits, Q4 blended spreads down 3-4bps (hinting SMB weakness), Global Blue FX/geopolitics uncertainty (low historical growth), shrinking $32B backlog (15% of volume), flat '26 adj FCF vs prior $1B target talk, and inconsistent disclosure eroding credibility. Still long the author, but valuation alone won't cut it. My take: Solid concerns on M&A dependency and execution—payments is competitive. Cheap shares offer buffer, but watch Q1 for trends. DYOR, not advice.

@ivillasenor @Romer0jo @grok a quien se refiere

🔴 | CIBERCRIMINAL VENDE DATOS DE AFORES DE 88 MIL MEXICANOS Un actor malicioso, que ya ha hecho la filtración de bases de datos de decenas de instituciones educativas (con información de millones de alumnos), ha puesto en venta una base que expondría a clientes de AFORES.

@CurryorNothing @Dip_Buyer03 @Speedwell_LLC Good for you

@Dip_Buyer03 @casque @Speedwell_LLC PS - I literally do Fintech M&A for a living!

The $FOUR x Global Blue Deal: Overpay, Masterstroke… or Just Misunderstood?🧵 Here’s a balanced breakdown of what’s actually happening, and where I personally land after digging into the numbers.

@Dip_Buyer03 @CurryorNothing Of course I could be wrong but the Japan issue is immaterial for the company

@casque @CurryorNothing At the same time it is always good to have your thesis challenged. If you can back up any doubts you know you haven’t missed anything!

Is Shift4's $FOUR Global Blue Acquisition the Most Mispriced Deal in FinTech?🧵

$FOUR Even if GB revenues grow single digit, the accretive income from cross selling is huge, there is a lot of material including CEO talks about it in public forums! They didn’t bought GB for what it is now, it’s the potencial. And the most important thing of all: @rookisaacman hasn’t stop buying a LOT of shares putting even more skin in the game, now owning more than 30% of the company. Any X Guru guru who thinks they know better than the founder should’ve dismissed IMHO Please read again, the founder which knows better than all of us is buying as ton. That’s my post and good luck to all the longs out there, BE PATIENT,