Dylan LeClair ретвитнул
Dylan LeClair
36.6K posts
Dylan LeClair
@DylanLeClair
Bitcoin | @Metaplanet Bitcoin Strategy - $MPJPY | $MTPLF |
Присоединился Ağustos 2013
6.6K Подписки432.1K Подписчики
Dylan LeClair ретвитнул
Strategy announces new $21 Billion $STRC ATM Program and new $21 Billion $MSTR ATM Program. strategy.com/press/strategy…
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私が祖父から言われて印象に残っていること
母方祖父「戦争で色々拠出したのに戦後財産税で全部没収された、国の言うことは信用するな（意訳）」
父方祖父「国の借金が増えており、かならずインフレでチャラにしようとする。お金の価値は国次第でどうにでもなるのでお金の価値を信用するな（意訳）」
日本語
@bradmillscan Claude cowork works great for most everything you want to build and is much more cost effective because Anthropic subsidizes the tokens so it's materially cheaper
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If you have activity bias, ADHD or anything resembling OCD, OpenClaw is a terrible drug and productivity poison.
After 40 days in the trenches with this thing, my life is measurably worse.
OpenClaw is a lot like crypto trading, gambling or playing video games.
Most ppl are going to lose, and you’re going to feel like shit when you’re done - likely only 1% of ppl will find it additive to their lives.
I am in a constant state of stress. I’m skipping workouts, my vision is fucked from 12-15 hrs a day on screens, my forearms are fucked from too much typing.
There’s a never-ending maze of rabbit holes to fall down, footguns to step on and moles to whack.
Plus when you finally do get it going, you start projects and don’t finish them because half way through something breaks.
I’m not hitting the gym as often as I should, not eating right and I’ve completely lost sight of my goals and why I started in the first place.
The idea of OpenClaw is so compelling and it’s very exciting when I get glimpses of what the future is going to be like when this is not a patchwork of chaos.
This tech is dangerous.
I know I said this last week but I need to take a break … I’m burnt out from all the constant debugging and errors across every fucking surface of this thing.
It’s like trying to fly a plane without a license … oh and it’s on fire…and you’re on crack.
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Dylan LeClair ретвитнул
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 CFTC announces Futures Commission Merchants can accept Bitcoin as margin collateral.
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Dylan LeClair ретвитнул
Morgan Stanley Wealth Management oversees about $8 trillion in AUM and recommends 0–4% bitcoin allocation. A 2% allocation would represent $160 billion, ~3X the size of IBIT. $MSBT: Monster Bitcoin.
Bitcoin News@BitcoinNewsCom
NEW: Morgan Stanley files second amended S-1 for its proposed spot Bitcoin ETF.
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Dylan LeClair ретвитнул
世間は3連休に入りましたね。
いかんせん、メタプラネット（メタプラ）の直近の値動きだけで一喜一憂している方が多いようですが、
企業が裏で回している
「本当の錬金術」に気づいていますか？
今回は、BTCの暴落すら利益（本来の目的）に変えてしまう、
メタプラのバグレベルの戦略を動画で完全解説しました。
① 単なるガチホではなく、「プットオプション売り」で一撃数億円の手数料を獲得
② 下がれば安値で現物BTCをゲット、下がらなければ手数料が丸儲けになる完全無欠のループ
③ 決算書にも記載された「年間約80億円」のオプション収入の破壊力
目先のノイズに惑わされるのではなく、
こういう大口の裏のカラクリを冷静に見極めて下さい。
今年はさらにキャッシュを手に入れているので、この収益はさらに跳ね上がると睨んでいます。
👇
youtu.be/auyotLgjnwM
※観たら高評価をお願いします！
#メタプラネット #日本株 #オプション取引 #現物推奨
YouTube
日本語
Dylan LeClair ретвитнул
$STRC is engineered for high yield (11.5%), low volatility (1.7%), an exceptional Sharpe ratio (4.60), and deep daily liquidity ($209M). Track these metrics daily at strategy.com.
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CB buyers in size generally want an issuer soft call to be no shorter than 3-4 years out, depending, albeit at a higher premium than 10%, but also usually with an investor put right a year or so earlier.
Meaning you have to pay back principal in the worst times, early.
Whereas the primary ‘risk’ for this structure, is the right tail; an absolute monster move in BTC, which frankly, would be a massive tailwind for the business in many respects- and is something we can quantify *and* hedge.
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An interesting way to frame it. Metaplanet's equity + warrant deal gives vol traders something to work with without having to issue debt (convertible bonds).
Without the guaranteed return of principal of bonds, it makes sense that equity + warrant pricing was lower than it might have been for a CB. There is meaningfully higher risk to the buyer. Even so, I would like to have seen warrant pricing higher. On net, this deal is sort of like issuing a convertible bond with a ~9% premium (averaging the premiums of the shares and the warrants).
Simon Gerovich@gerovich
Breaking down our latest raise. Our single KPI is Bitcoin per share. Every capital decision we make gets measured against that. After our last institutional offering, we heard from shareholders that they wanted us to think differently about how we raise capital. The demand was still clear: more Bitcoin. So here's what we did. Japanese PIPEs typically price at a ~10% discount to market. We sold shares at a 2% premium to market and packaged our equity vol into fixed-strike warrants at a 10% premium. The company gets immediate capital to grow the Bitcoin balance sheet. If the stock goes higher and warrants are exercised, we receive additional capital at a price above today's market. The investors get to express a view on volatility. This isn't zero-sum. Both sides can win. This is the same playbook MSTR pioneered with convertible bonds. A 0% coupon convert was a bond and an embedded call option packaged into one security. The coupon was zero because the embedded option on a levered BTC vehicle was so valuable it replaced the coupon entirely. The bondholder wasn't lending for free. They were paying for vol. Saylor understood this before anyone else in BTC and it unlocked a new paradigm for Bitcoin treasury capital formation. Same principle, different wrapper. We used stock plus warrants instead of converts, so there's no debt, no maturity risk, no overhang, no ongoing dividend or interest payments. The capital structure stays clean with no debt sitting above equity holders, and that's by design. When we issue preferred shares, the balance sheet underneath needs to be pristine. Every Bitcoin we add strengthens that foundation. The bigger the base, the more credible the credit. We are intentionally building this to become the dominant issuer of Bitcoin backed fixed income instruments in Japan. And finally, we run one of the most active BTC derivatives books in the world. Every scenario here has been stress tested and is being managed, including the tail risk on future warrant exercise. We built this company around Bitcoin volatility and BTC Yield. This is what we do. This is permanent capital with no ongoing cost. The proceeds go to Bitcoin. ~$255M now. Up to ~$531M on exercise. March toward 210,000 BTC continues.
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Dylan LeClair ретвитнул
Breaking down our latest raise. Our single KPI is Bitcoin per share. Every capital decision we make gets measured against that. After our last institutional offering, we heard from shareholders that they wanted us to think differently about how we raise capital. The demand was still clear: more Bitcoin. So here's what we did.
Japanese PIPEs typically price at a ~10% discount to market. We sold shares at a 2% premium to market and packaged our equity vol into fixed-strike warrants at a 10% premium. The company gets immediate capital to grow the Bitcoin balance sheet. If the stock goes higher and warrants are exercised, we receive additional capital at a price above today's market. The investors get to express a view on volatility. This isn't zero-sum. Both sides can win.
This is the same playbook MSTR pioneered with convertible bonds. A 0% coupon convert was a bond and an embedded call option packaged into one security. The coupon was zero because the embedded option on a levered BTC vehicle was so valuable it replaced the coupon entirely. The bondholder wasn't lending for free. They were paying for vol. Saylor understood this before anyone else in BTC and it unlocked a new paradigm for Bitcoin treasury capital formation.
Same principle, different wrapper. We used stock plus warrants instead of converts, so there's no debt, no maturity risk, no overhang, no ongoing dividend or interest payments. The capital structure stays clean with no debt sitting above equity holders, and that's by design. When we issue preferred shares, the balance sheet underneath needs to be pristine. Every Bitcoin we add strengthens that foundation. The bigger the base, the more credible the credit. We are intentionally building this to become the dominant issuer of Bitcoin backed fixed income instruments in Japan.
And finally, we run one of the most active BTC derivatives books in the world. Every scenario here has been stress tested and is being managed, including the tail risk on future warrant exercise. We built this company around Bitcoin volatility and BTC Yield. This is what we do.
This is permanent capital with no ongoing cost. The proceeds go to Bitcoin. ~$255M now. Up to ~$531M on exercise. March toward 210,000 BTC continues.
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Dylan LeClair ретвитнул
NEW: Michael Saylor's Strategy could surpass BlackRock's BTC holdings in the next couple weeks 👀
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Dylan LeClair ретвитнул
@chamath If AI compresses terminal value and makes every moat temporary, capital will rotate to assets with no disruption risk. Bitcoin is Digital Capital - scarce, neutral, and impervious to AI disruption. $BTC should be the primary beneficiary of this shift.
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Dylan LeClair ретвитнул
Last two weeks marked an inflection point in @Strategy’s $BTC journey.
Bewilderment will intensify.
Michael Saylor@saylor
Strategy generated ₿16,622 of BTC Gain last week, worth ~$1.2 billion. BTC Gain is the closest analog to Net Income on the Bitcoin Standard. $MSTR
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Dylan, simply ignore those whiners, and continue to relentlessly execute and build. It doesn't matter what you say, because their emotional fortitude is the underlying issue.
If people trust in your team's ability, they should stay invested.
And if they don't trust you, they should sell and get it over with.
I haven't sold a single share in the past 6 months, but have kept adding.
It's now deep winter in Metaplanet land, but cherry blossom season is near, I reckon. 🌸
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Metaplanet has issued 100 million Moving Strike Warrants with a first-of-its-kind mNAV clause. Exercise is only permitted when the stock trades above 1.01x mNAV, ensuring every share issued increases shareholder value. This enables the company to raise an estimated $234M in additional capital to buy BTC, unlocked only when it's accretive to BTC per share. $MPJPY
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Dylan LeClair ретвитнул
NEW: $14 trillion BlackRock says Bitcoin ETF investors are "long term buy and hold fundamental type investors" and flows are positive 🚀
"90% of the investor base" are steadily accumulating during this bear market 🐂
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@AM13978371 @gerovich The engagement and feedback is acknowledged and appreciated.
As we have done on multiple occasions, there are unilateral suspension mechanisms in the MSW documentation to preserve optionality.
We’re working to find a balance to get the engine humming again.
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@DylanLeClair @gerovich Thank you for your responses. I truly hope this allows the company to begin purchasing Bitcoin again. Please forgive me if I'm fearful of dilution at 1.01 mNAV. I hope that you can understand my frustration, as I've been holding many thousands of shares through an 80% decline.
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We haven’t sold shares via an ATM like structure for approx 6 months, with MSW floor strikes set at implied mNAV levels much higher than the market.
As a result, we didn’t sell raise any capital via MSW even at attractive mNAV levels because of BTC trading weak- while shareholders like yourself asked why we weren’t buying the dip.
The new structure has a self imposed floating floor that we *did not* have to add, but did so voluntarily. There was no reason to add such a feature that would intentionally limit capital raising optionality other than shareholder interests.
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@DylanLeClair @gerovich You're correct, Dylan. I have been disappointed in the lack of purchases. I even suggested in the survey that the company should have set an mNAV floor and I'm glad the change was made. However, I think 1.01 is entirely too low. I, and many other holders, would be fine with 1.1
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