Mathieu Pedemonte

The International Economic Review has just published a new exciting paper by Gustavo de Souza and André Victor Luduvice on Optimal Unemployment Insurance Requirements. It is available through @WileyEconomics here: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.11…

Interested in postpandemic inflation and wage growth heterogeneity? Check out our Commentary written with Anaya Truss-Williams and C. J. Walker. As in previous ECs, we provide a GitHub repo with annotated codes: tinyurl.com/4mytktmh More links at: avdluduvice.com/policy

Forthcoming in the AER: "Managers and Public Hospital Performance" by Pablo Muñoz and Cristóbal Otero. aeaweb.org/articles?id=10…

@CarmenQuezada Gracias!!!

Amazing @mathpedemonte 👏👏👏👏

Monetary policy shocks affect more cities with low income per capita, both in prices and income. Just Accepted new paper by Juan Herreño Bluesky: zurl.co/5GY4o and Mathieu Pedemonte @mathpedemonte

Why have different surveys of inflation expectations recently shown such different numbers for U.S. consumer inflation expectations? In a new @ClevelandFed Economic Commentary with my co-authors @InaHajdini , Ph.D., Ed Knotek, @JohnCLeer, @mathpedemonte, Damjan Pfajfar and Taylor Shiroff, we provide one answer: part of the gap comes from the political makeup of the different survey samples. Inflation expectations differ sharply by party -- in April 2025, Democrats in the Michigan Survey of Consumers (MSC) expected inflation over 10 percentage points higher than Republicans. When we reweight surveys to also match the U.S. population’s actual party affiliation, the gaps across surveys shrink, while the average inflation expectation in the MSC is lower by about 2 percentage points for April 2025, clevelandfed.org/people/profile… #inflation #inflationexpectations

New paper with @InaHajdini, Saten, Samreen, and Jordan. Using an RCT, we show that firms communicate within their IO network, influencing connected firms’ expectations, uncertainty and actions. We then illustrate the relevance for shock transmission and inflation in a NK model

Just Accepted new paper, “Multi-establishment Firms, Pricing and the Propagation of Local Shocks: Evidence from US Retail” by Ezequiel García-Lembergman zurl.co/i4Ggq

In a revised working paper, researchers study how #MonetaryPolicy communications associated with increasing the federal funds rate causally affect consumers' inflation expectations in real time. See their findings: clefed.org/3FGzfyx

Wondering about the effect of tariffs on inflation? Tariffs are like supply shocks --> Inflation is a supply phenomenon.

Bernardo is on the market this year, and also has an excellent paper on households’ spending reaction to changes in inflation expectations, comparing the effects in high and low inflation settings, using a series of RCTs in the US bernardocandia.com

Happy to see our paper with Bernardo Candia out at the @JEEA_News. We use high frequency data and variation from countries that left the gold standard to estimate the cost of bilateral exchange rate appreciations in US cities

Very interesting work of @avdluduvice and coauthors at @ClevFedResearch

In a new WP w. Klaus Abberger, @FunkAnneKathrin, @M_L_a_m_l_a, and Stefanie Siegrist we examine how firms’ #inflation #expectations affect their #prices and #wages sarah-lein.ch/IEPT.pdf. We find that 𝗻𝗲𝗮𝗿-𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗺 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 are relevant:1/4

The Research Department at the Cleveland Fed seeks new or experienced economists with research interests in inflation, macroeconomics, microeconomics, and banking and finance. Apply today: bit.ly/3UyWajx #economics #inflation #macro #micro #banking #nowhiring

Our Center for Inflation Research and the @ecb will host the Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics 2024 conference Oct. 24–25. The event will bring together top researchers to present research related to inflation. Virtual registration is now available: clefed.org/3UKbR8y

@anusha_chari @WillWitheridge @RamonaDagostin1 We are back after lunch, and we now have @mathpedemonte presenting “The Causal Effect of Expected Depreciations”. Mathieu has just joined the IADB and you can find more about his research here: mathieupedemonte.com/home

FDR's announcements of future policies in 1935 had an immediate expansionary effect in exposed cities. In the July issue, "Fireside Chats: Communication and Consumers' Expectations in the Great Depression" by Mathieu Pedemonte @mathpedemonte. zurl.co/rGVQ

El profesor Pablo Muñoz de la @fenuchile analizó cómo las medidas autoritarias implementadas en la educación superior después del golpe militar afectaron la tasa de mortalidad de las generaciones que alcanzaron la edad universitaria en ese período. ➡️bit.ly/4ejOCso

A benevolent recovery: @ClevFedResearch finds that jobs added since the pandemic recession have been heavily tilted toward high wage industries, helping push up incomes even as pay *within low wage industries* also increased. clevelandfed.org/publications/c…