Two years ago, when CPI was already above 5%, the Fed was forecasting rate hikes to only 1% by the end of 2023. Even when inflation was staring them right in the face they did not see it coming. Which is why you shouldn't put any weight on their forecasts today or any other day.

Powell triggers SPX spike higher: This is not an environment where the FOMC should provide lots of forward guidance. Then says this... I DON'T SEE INFLATION BACK AT 2% UNTIL ABOUT 2025. That's like calling for a stealth pause and raising the inflation goalposts same breath.

Fed Vice Chair nominee Phillip Jefferson says, “skipping a rate hike at a coming meeting would allow the Committee to see more data before making decisions about the extent of additional policy firming.” That seems in line with Powell's more neutral view, but at odds with several Fed officials who have been more hawkish.

So cute the way the market is spooked by nonvoting members of the fed. I bet most traders don’t even realize that. If you’re nonvoting shhhhhhhhhh please, grownups are trading ;)