The PM asked citizens to stop buying gold. Titan fell 6%, jewellers down 10%. But here’s the contrarian view, gold demand is structurally supported by central bank buying globally. Indian consumers will not stop buying gold for weddings and festivals. The organized retailers (Titan, Kalyan) will actually gain share because the unorganized sector gets hit harder by any import curbs.

Fair contrarian frame, and the organised vs unorganised share-shift point is real. Two pushbacks though. Central bank buying sets the global floor but doesn’t set the Indian retail price, which is rupee-denominated and CAD-sensitive. And wedding-festival demand is income-elastic, not price-inelastic. At 95k+ per gram families defer, downgrade carat, or buy lighter. Titan and Kalyan gaining share of a shrinking pie still hurts absolute earnings. The PM’s signal was not about demand. It was about the policy stack preparing for import curbs. That is what matters.