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Ridiculous CA Wildlife Bridge Aims to Prevent Inbred Mountain Lions, but Will Be a Wildfire Express Lane redstate.com/jenvanlaar/202…

@jenvanlaar

Here are all of the current posted @NWS hazards in California. Most of the state's population is under a Heat Advisory (orange), and or an Extreme Heat Watch/ Warning (red and pink). California has never this many heat advisories and or warnings in the month of March. #CAwx

Extreme heat looking likely for #SoCal next week: - MAJOR to EXTREME HEAT RISK likely next Tue-Thu - High temperatures in the 90s to low 100s - Very warm overnight low temperatures - Daily and monthly temperature records at risk Prepare now for this upcoming heat event. #CAwx

Followers - I’m officially declaring Winter over for the Western U.S. Before diving into the analysis, I want to address something I hear quite a bit. A lot of people say my posts sound negative. Some of you think I’m constantly calling out bad patterns or dry conditions just to be pessimistic. The reality is that’s not the mission here. I’m not here for clicks, fantasy weather p*rn patterns, engagement farming, or viral posts. Folks - That is what most of X is. I’m not trying to build hype or push narratives that the atmosphere simply doesn’t support. A lot of others do that, but I don't. My goal has always been the same: look at the data, study the pattern, and share what I’m seeing in the trends, with honestly and transparently. Sometimes that means calling out great storm setups. Sometimes it means highlighting drought risks or weak patterns. But the mission is simple: educate, analyze, and discuss the weather as it actually is, not as we wish it would be. Many of you appreciate that, some of you don't, even if the message isn’t always what people want to hear. As you know I have gotten hate mail the last few weeks because I didn't forecast an AR this past week in #socal, so I want to set the record straight. Instead, we got 90+ degree weather and moderate to strong Santa Ana winds. And guess what, that pattern will continue off and on thru the next few weeks. Now to the pattern and to why I think winter is done out west. Here along the Southern California coast we’ve seen 90°+ temperatures in Santa Monica and most of #Socal along the coast over the last few days, paired with 20–40 MPH Santa Ana winds, very low humidity, and an increasingly dry boundary layer. For early March, that combination is a pretty strong signal that the seasonal transition has already taken place. From a synoptic standpoint, this winter was extremely challenging. A major factor was how Rossby wave propagation across the Pacific was repeatedly disrupted by polar vortex dynamics, setting up the meridional flow along the west coast. Instead of a stable Pacific jet delivering consistent storm energy into California, the wave train was frequently altered by vortex perturbations, which displaced energy eastward and disrupted the normal storm track. The result across the West: • Persistent West Coast ridging • Storm spacing often exceeding 35+ days • Systems frequently splitting or diving toward Baja • Warmer Pacific air masses elevating Sierra snow levels So while storms did arrive, they were episodic rather than sustained, creating a very stop-and-go winter across California. Meanwhile, the polar vortex is forecast to stretch again next week, allowing colder air to drop into the Northeast and bringing another late-season winter push back east. Folks, this has been the theme the whole winter, as it continues to happen again. Today is 65 degrees in NY. They might be around Freezing in about 8+ days time once again, with a few more opportunities for snow. You can't make it up. Looking at how my Winter Outlook verified (Nov–Mar): • Downtown Los Angeles rainfall: Finished within my projected range, despite the large dry gaps between storms. Could they get shower or two at the end of the month into April. It is possible, but it will be weak, as the wavelengths are transitioning from winter to spring, and the jet is weaker. Plus the pattern setup doesn't really dictate it. • Central Park snowfall: Also within range, thanks to a few well-timed events in the Northeast with a few nor-easters and a PVs to boot. • Sierra Nevada snowfall: This is where I missed significantly. I expected a stronger snowpack season, but totals have lagged badly. At the current pace, many Sierra locations may struggle to even reach ~300" this season, which is well below expectations. Is it possible to get more snow at the end of the month....Yes, but folks it ain't going to make a difference at that point. Sustained warmth, and dry conditions will be the kill shot for the mountain resorts. The combination of persistent ridging, disrupted Rossby waves, marginal thermodynamics, and poorly timed storm tracks ultimately capped Sierra snowfall potential. Looking forward, ensemble guidance continues to show ridging rebuilding along the West Coast, reinforcing a dry regime for California. I’ll post model panels and ensemble data below that highlight the evolving pattern. Another storyline to watch: there’s growing chatter in the climate community about the possible return of El Niño later this year. Subsurface Pacific signals and early model guidance are starting to hint in that direction, and the discussion around it has become very active recently. Everyone is jumping onto this solution in the uber long range models, but time will tell. I hope it happens, as this pattern blows out west. TBC! One final note. I’ve got some business in NorCal this week, so I’ll be heading up there before swinging over to @palisadestahoe. On paper, the resort sits just shy of 300" total snowfall, but after that 100" dump over Presidents’ Week, the atmospheric rivers brought heavy rain at the end of February, and basically decimated the snowpack in certain areas. This, folks, combined with the above average temps, has been the story up and down the West Coast this season. Looking at the forecast, it’s going to be sunny and hitting 65° every day in tahoe when I am there. It is what it is. After this trip, I’ve got another one booked to @Deer_Valley at the end of the month, but with these temps and dry conditions, I’m not sure there will be much snow to make the trip worth it. Honestly, snow conditions out west have been brutal this season.... just look at Utah, Colorado, and now California. Meanwhile, Downtown LA might hit 100+° either Thursday or Friday this week, and the following week…so yeah, winter is officially over, except back east, as the PV is coming back, as I mentioned before. I guess Phil was right all along! Wish I had better news. Note - If this sustained heat dome pattern with santa ana winds in #socal continues, fires will be the next shoe to drop. Something to watch out for in the upcoming weeks and months.!! More updates coming this week!!! #CAwx #Weather #SantaAnaWinds #CaliforniaDrought #SierraSnow #ElNino #PolarVortex #ClimateTrends #Winter2026 #StormPatterns #RossbyWaves #WestCoastWeather #ClimateScience #DryCalifornia #HeatWave #EarlySummer #Snowpack #WeatherOutlook #california #PolarVortex